AA Valuation

Alcoa Corp

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29.630

-1.64(-5.245%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

AA Relative Valuation

AA's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, AA is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Alcoa Corp (AA) is now in the Fair zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 0.67 is considered Fairly compared with the five-year average of -7.99. The fair price of Alcoa Corp (AA) is between 19.94 to 34.38 according to relative valuation methord.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

19.94-34.38

Current Price：29.63

Fair

13.79

Trailing

Forward

5.89

EV/EBITDA

Alcoa Corp. (AA) has a current EV/EBITDA of 5.89. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 6.32. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -1.06, Undervalued between -1.06 and 2.63, Fairly Valued between 10.01 and 2.63, Overvalued between 10.01 and 13.70, and Strongly Overvalued above 13.70. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 5.89 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

10.93

EV/EBIT

Alcoa Corp. (AA) has a current EV/EBIT of 10.93. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 9.30. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -20.53, Undervalued between -20.53 and -5.62, Fairly Valued between 24.21 and -5.62, Overvalued between 24.21 and 39.12, and Strongly Overvalued above 39.12. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 10.93 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

0.67

Alcoa Corp. (AA) has a current PS of 0.67. The 5-year average PS is 0.63. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.22, Undervalued between 0.22 and 0.43, Fairly Valued between 0.84 and 0.43, Overvalued between 0.84 and 1.04, and Strongly Overvalued above 1.04. The current Forward PS of 0.67 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

5.98

P/OCF

Alcoa Corp. (AA) has a current P/OCF of 5.98. The 5-year average P/OCF is 4.73. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -31.26, Undervalued between -31.26 and -13.26, Fairly Valued between 22.73 and -13.26, Overvalued between 22.73 and 40.72, and Strongly Overvalued above 40.72. The current Forward P/OCF of 5.98 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

19.61

P/FCF

Alcoa Corp. (AA) has a current P/FCF of 19.61. The 5-year average P/FCF is 3.07. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -139.40, Undervalued between -139.40 and -68.16, Fairly Valued between 74.31 and -68.16, Overvalued between 74.31 and 145.54, and Strongly Overvalued above 145.54. The current Forward P/FCF of 19.61 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

Alcoa Corp (AA) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.25. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 1.53 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -17.96% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 1.69, the current P/B ratio is about -26.03% higher. Alcoa Corp (AA) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 7.19%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of -0.69%, the current FCF yield is approximately -1139.08% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 1.08% , the current FCF yield is about 562.56% lower.

1.25

P/B

Median3y

1.53

Median5y

1.69

7.19

FCF Yield

Median3y

-0.69

Median5y

1.08

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for AA's competitors is 0.47, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Alcoa Corp Corp (AA) exhibits a P/S ratio of 0.67, which is 41.90% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of 3.85%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of AA decreased by 7.47% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in Margin Expansion from 1.07 to 5.00.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed 3.85%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of AA in the past 1 year is driven by Margin Expansion. Which is more sustainable.

3.85%

2.91B → 3.02B

Revenue Growth

367.29%

1.07 → 5.00

Margin Expansion

-378.61%

-2.75 → 7.66

P/E Change

-7.47%