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AA Earnings

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Earning Analysis

Welcome to our in-depth analysis of Alcoa Corp(AA) earnings, offering investors a detailed look into the company’s financial performance, revenue trends, earnings per share (EPS), and market reactions. This page provides a comprehensive overview of Alcoa Corp earnings history, forecasts, and key financial metrics, empowering you with the data needed to make informed investment decisions. Whether you're tracking quarterly results, analyzing earnings surprises, or exploring future projections, our detailed breakdown covers it all.

Earnings Forecast

Revenue
EPS
Currency: USD
Actual
Estimate

Surprise Analysis

Name
EPS
Revenue
Price Reaction
Fiscal QuarterEarning DateTimeEstimateActualSurprise%EstimateActualSurprise%1D5D
Fiscal Quarter
Earning Date
Time
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
1D
5D
FY2025Q32025-10-22After Hours-0.07-0.02+71.433.13B3.00B-4.25+12.59+10.27
FY2025Q22025-07-16After Hours0.290.39+34.482.95B3.02B+2.32+2.91+11.80
FY2025Q12025-04-16After Hours1.732.15+24.283.51B3.37B-3.90-6.98-0.08
FY2024Q42025-01-22After Hours0.911.04+14.293.45B3.49B+1.00-3.69-9.41
FY2024Q32024-10-16After Hours0.230.57+147.832.95B2.90B-1.67-4.09-0.45
FY2024Q22024-07-17-0.110.16+45.452.90B2.91B+0.27-4.79-12.31
FY2024Q12024-04-17--0.62-0.81-30.652.56B2.60B+1.68-1.50-0.08
FY2023Q42024-01-17--0.99-0.56+43.432.57B2.60B+1.13-2.48+5.88
FY2023Q32023-10-18--1.13-1.14-0.882.58B2.60B+0.69-4.50-15.59
-2023-07-19--0.59-0.35+40.68----0.57+1.63
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AA Earnings Analysis

Our earnings analysis provides a granular look at the company’s performance across recent fiscal quarters, highlighting key metrics such as revenue, EPS, and operating margins. By examining actual results against analyst estimates, we uncover trends and surprises that drive stock price movements, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
In the most recent quarter, Alcoa Corp reported performance for FY2025Q3, announced on 2025-10-22. The company achieved an EPS of -0.02, compared to analyst estimates of -0.07 by 71.43% . Revenue for the quarter reached 3.00B compared to expectations of 3.13B by -4.25% .
The stock price reacted with a 12.59% one-day change and a 10.27% five-day change following the earnings release. These movements reflect market reaction in Alcoa Corp growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.

AA Earnings Forecast

Looking ahead, Alcoa Corp(AA) remains a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. Analyst forecasts for 2025/Q4 project quarter revenue of 3.22B and an EPS of 0.84.
However, recent estimate revisions provide additional context. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 have been Revise Upward by 0.78%, while EPS estimates have been Revise Downward by -3.17%. For the upcoming Q4 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted Revise Upward by 4.43% . These revisions correlate with a 38.27% change in stock price over the same period, suggesting potential buying opportunities for investors who believe in Alcoa Corp long-term fundamentals.
The relationship between earnings forecast revisions and stock price movements is critical for investors. Positive revisions in revenue or EPS often signal strengthening fundamentals, making temporary price dips attractive entry points. Conversely, downward revisions may reflect short-term challenges.

Estimate Revision

The chart shows the correlation between AA's stock price and earnings forecast revisions. Positive revisions in Revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals, making price dips potential buying opportunities.
Revenue Estimates for FY2025
Revise Upward
up Image
+0.78%
In Past 3 Month
EPS Estimates for FY2025
Revise Downward
down Image
-3.17%
In Past 3 Month
Revenue Estimates for Q4 2025
Revise Upward
up Image
+4.43%
In Past 3 Month
Stock Price
Go Up
up Image
+38.27%
In Past 3 Month
1Y
3Y
5Y
Annual FY 2025
Currency: USD
Currency: USD
1Y
3Y
5Y
--
Revenue Estimate-Annual FY 2025:12.58B
--
EPS Estimate-Annual FY 2025:3.35
—
Stock Price44.01
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AI Stock Picker

AA Revenue and EPS Performance: A Historical Perspective

Alcoa Corp revenue and earnings per share (EPS) performance over recent quarters provides a clear picture of its financial health. Below is a detailed breakdown of the company’s earnings history, showcasing actual results, analyst estimates, and surprise percentages for key fiscal quarters:
FY2025Q3 (2025-10-22,After Hours):
EPS: -0.02 (Actual) vs.-0.07 (Estimate) (71.43%)
Revenue: 3.00B (Actual) vs. 3.13B (Estimate) (-4.25%)
Price Reaction: 12.59%(1-Day), 10.27%(5-Day)
FY2025Q2 (2025-07-16,After Hours):
EPS: 0.39 (Actual) vs.0.29 (Estimate) (34.48%)
Revenue: 3.02B (Actual) vs. 2.95B (Estimate) (2.32%)
Price Reaction: 2.91%(1-Day), 11.80%(5-Day)
FY2025Q1 (2025-04-16,After Hours):
EPS: 2.15 (Actual) vs.1.73 (Estimate) (24.28%)
Revenue: 3.37B (Actual) vs. 3.51B (Estimate) (-3.90%)
Price Reaction: -6.98%(1-Day), -0.08%(5-Day)
Earnings Reaction
The chart below shows how AA performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AA sees a +5.71% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -1.98% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -1.40%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
For example, in SEP/2025, the stock changed 12.59% on the day following the earnings release and then changed by 0.25% over the next 10 days. These patterns provide investors with valuable insights into potential price movements and help inform trading strategies around earnings events.
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Transcript Summary

Alcoa Corp (AA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-10-22
The earnings call summary presents a mixed outlook: reduced aluminum shipments and increased interest expenses are negatives, while cost reductions and improved alumina segment performance are positives. The Q&A reveals optimism about aluminum demand and strategic projects but highlights uncertainties in tariffs and energy costs. The strategic plan adjustments and management's cautious communication suggest a balanced view, leading to a neutral stock price prediction.
Alcoa Corp (AA) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-07-16
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate mixed signals. While there are positive aspects like cost efficiency and operational stability, the revenue decline, unfavorable aluminum segment performance, and tariff impacts weigh negatively. The Q&A highlights concerns about tariffs and operational delays, but also shows management's proactive approach to mitigate risks. Overall, the sentiment is balanced, leading to a neutral prediction for stock price movement.
Alcoa Corp (AA) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-04-18
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. While EPS and net income have improved, revenue has declined, and there are concerns about tariff impacts and market volatility. The Q&A reveals management's uncertainty on tariffs and restricted cash release, which could worry investors. Positive aspects include strong aluminum prices and strategic moves like debt repositioning and the alumina supply contract. However, these are balanced by challenges like tariff costs and unclear guidance on key issues. Given these factors, a neutral sentiment is appropriate, suggesting limited stock price movement.
Alcoa Corp (AA) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-04-16
The earnings call shows mixed results: strong net income and EPS growth, but declining revenue and segment EBITDA. The strategic acquisitions and partnerships, along with a dividend, are positives. However, increased costs, equity investment losses, and tariff-related uncertainties are negatives. The Q&A reveals management's uncertainty on key issues like tariffs and cash flow impacts, which could concern investors. Without a clear market cap, the stock is likely to have a neutral reaction due to these mixed signals and uncertainties.
Earnings call transcript: Alcoa Q3 2024 beats expectations, stock rises
Positive
2025-01-22
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with improved net income and adjusted EBITDA, alongside strategic moves like the acquisition of Alumina Limited and a partnership with IGNIS Group. Despite some uncertainties in the Q&A, such as stakeholder approvals, the overall sentiment is positive due to increased revenue in the alumina segment and optimistic guidance. The shareholder return plan and strategic partnerships are likely to support a positive stock price reaction over the next two weeks.
Alcoa Corporation (AA) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2024-10-17
The earnings call shows mixed results: strong net income growth and improved adjusted EBITDA, but flat revenue and increased working capital days. The Q&A reveals uncertainties about the Spanish partnership and operational risks, which could temper optimism. The dividend payment and cash flow stability are positives, but the lack of clear guidance and partnership risks lead to a neutral outlook. Given these mixed signals, the stock price is likely to remain stable in the near term.
Alcoa Corporation (AA) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2024-07-17
The earnings call presents mixed signals: while revenue and net income improved, challenges such as increased costs, debt from the acquisition, and operational risks at San Ciprián persist. The Q&A highlights supply chain issues and management's unclear responses to certain risks. Despite positive cash flow and a slight increase in shareholder returns, the outlook is tempered by higher costs and competitive pressures. The overall sentiment is neutral, reflecting a balance between positive financial performance and ongoing challenges.

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FAQ

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What were the key highlights of AA’s latest earnings report for FY2025Q3?

AA reported its FY2025Q3 earnings on 2025-10-22, showcasing a revenue of 3.00B against an estimate of 3.13B, resulting in a -4.25% surprise. The EPS was -0.02, surpassing the expected -0.07 by 71.43% . The stock experienced a 12.59% price change on the earnings day and a 10.27% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.
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How did AA’s stock price react after the FY2025Q3 earnings release?

Following AA’s FY2025Q3 earnings announcement on 2025-10-22, the stock price moved by 12.59% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a 10.27% change. Historically, AA’s stock price tends to shift by an average of +5.71% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and -1.98% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.
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What are the revenue and EPS estimates for AA for 2025/Q4?

For 2025/Q4, analysts estimate AA’s annual revenue to reach 3.22B, while the EPS is projected at 0.84. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised Revenue Revise Upward by 0.78% and EPS estimates Revise Upward by 4.43% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company’s performance.
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How does AA’s stock price correlate with earnings forecast revisions?

The correlation between AA’s stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock’s fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were Revise Upward by 0.78%, while EPS estimates moved Revise Upward by 4.43% . This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.
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What should investors expect from AA’s next earnings report?

Based on historical trends, AA’s stock price typically moves by +5.71% in the 10 days before its earnings and -1.98% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q4 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of 0.84 and revenue of 3.22B.
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What is the sentiment in Alcoa Corp (AA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary?

The earnings call summary presents a mixed outlook: reduced aluminum shipments and increased interest expenses are negatives, while cost reductions and improved alumina segment performance are positives. The Q&A reveals optimism about aluminum demand and strategic projects but highlights uncertainties in tariffs and energy costs. The strategic plan adjustments and management's cautious communication suggest a balanced view, leading to a neutral stock price prediction.
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