AA Price Prediction Next Week
Technical Analysis: Based on the technical indicators, AA stock is showing mixed signals. The RSI(14) at 50.27 indicates a neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD at -0.66 suggests some bearish pressure in the near term. The stock is currently trading below both its 20-day SMA ($36.63) and 60-day SMA ($39.60), indicating a downward trend.
Fundamental and News Analysis: Alcoa reported strong Q4 2024 results with sales of $3.49 billion, significantly higher than $2.6 billion in Q4 2023. The company turned profitable with net income of $202 million compared to a loss of $150 million a year ago. However, for Q1 2025, the company anticipates a $60 million sequential negative impact due to seasonal factors and operational changes.
A significant catalyst emerged today as President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. This news has driven AA stock up by 3.6%. The tariffs are expected to benefit domestic producers like Alcoa by limiting foreign competition and potentially increasing domestic aluminum prices.
Price Prediction for Next Week: Based on the Fibonacci levels, key price targets are:
- Resistance levels: R1 at $37.29, R2 at $38.33, R3 at $40.02
- Support levels: S1 at $33.91, S2 at $32.87, S3 at $31.18
- Pivot point: $35.60
Trading Recommendation: Given the positive catalyst from tariff news and strong Q4 results, but considering the technical weakness shown by MACD and moving averages, here's the prediction for next week:
- Base case (60% probability): Stock will likely trade between $35.60-$37.29
- Bullish case (25% probability): Break above $37.29 could push price to $38.33
- Bearish case (15% probability): Break below $35.60 could see price test $33.91
Recommendation: BUY with entry point at current market price ($37.16) with a stop loss at $35.60. First target at $38.33, second target at $40.02.
The positive impact of tariffs and strong fundamentals should outweigh the current technical weakness, making this an attractive entry point for a short-term trade.
AA Similar Chart Price Prediction
The price of AA is predicted to go up 25.32%, based on the high correlation periods with KC. The similarity of these two price pattern on the periods is 92.39%.
AA
KC
Up: 25.32%Similarity: 92.39%
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AA Analyst's Forecast
Bill Peterson
JP Morgan
Hold
2025-01-16
Price Target
$38 → $40
Upside
+2.29%
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Alcoa to $40 from $38 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q4 preview for the North America base metals group. The firm anticipates "optimistic commentary" on potential China stimulus, but says much will depend on how U.S. trade policy unfolds. Should tariffs fall short of expectations, "we wouldn't be surprised to see at least a partial unwind of the tariff trade," the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan recommends investors stay selective, focusing on "oversold equities with idiosyncratic tailwinds." Over the mid- and longer-term, it continues to favor copper within the base metals complex on expectations of continued supply challenges and strong electrification trends globally.
David Coleman
Argus Research
Hold → Strong Buy
2024-10-23
Price Target
n/a
Downside
0%
Carlos De Alba
Morgan Stanley
Buy
2024-10-18
Price Target
$48 → $49
Upside
+17.48%
