Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a comprehensive analysis of OLLI stock:

Recent Price Action and Technical Analysis

The stock closed at $96.27 on February 24, 2025, showing a decline of 0.53% during regular trading hours. The stock is currently trading below its Fibonacci pivot point of $102.68, with immediate support at $97.05 (Fibonacci S1) and resistance at $108.31 (Fibonacci R1).

Recent Analyst Actions and Market Sentiment

Recent analyst actions have turned cautious on OLLI:

• Jefferies downgraded OLLI from Buy to Hold on February 4, 2025, lowering their price target from $125 to $111, citing peak valuations and tougher comparable sales expectations in 2025.

Positive Catalysts

1. Market Share Opportunity:

• Big Lots store closures present a significant opportunity for OLLI to capture market share
• Analysts estimate potential 200-250 basis points in comparable sales gains from capturing just 5% of Big Lots' non-furniture business in overlapping locations

2. Real Estate Expansion:

• The Big Lots closures also present new real estate opportunities for OLLI's expansion plans
• Potential for supplier relationship strengthening as vendors seek new retail partners

Financial Health

The company demonstrates solid financial metrics:

• Current Ratio: 2.76, indicating strong liquidity
• Low Debt-to-Equity: 0.08%
• Gross Margin: 37.76%
• Net Margin: 8.98%

Recommendation

SELL for the following reasons:

1. The stock is trading below key technical levels with bearish momentum
2. Recent analyst downgrades highlight valuation concerns
3. While there are positive catalysts from Big Lots' closure, these benefits appear largely priced in
4. The stock may face near-term pressure as it cycles through tougher comparisons in 2025

Based on recent market data and analyst forecasts, OLLI stock is projected to reach $120-125 by end of 2025, driven by the company's successful expansion strategy and strong positioning in the closeout retail sector. Citigroup's double upgrade and increased price target to $133 reflects confidence in Ollie's ability to capitalize on retail market uncertainties and potential benefits from competitor Big Lots' bankruptcy. The company's scaling success with 546 stores across 31 states and long-term target of 1,300 stores demonstrates significant growth potential.

The S1 support level for OLLI Stock is $96.82 ,The R1 resistant level for OLLI Stock is $108.09.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-27, the price of OLLI Stock was $102.

The target price for OLLI Stock according to analyst rating is 123.17, with the highest price target at 135.00 and the lowest at 105.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on OLLI Stock overall.

The market cap of OLLI is $6.2B.

Based on the comprehensive data analysis, OLLI appears to be overvalued for the following key reasons:

Valuation Metrics

• Current P/E ratio of 25.68x is significantly higher than historical average
• EV/EBITDA of 16.25x indicates premium valuation compared to industry peers
• Price-to-Sales ratio has expanded to 2.22x, showing stretched valuation

Technical Analysis

• RSI reading of 33.95 indicates neutral-to-bearish momentum
• Trading below key moving averages (SMA20: $106.61, SMA60: $107.46)
• Bollinger Band analysis shows price near lower band with weak momentum

Recent Analyst Actions

• Jefferies recently downgraded OLLI from Buy to Hold with a price target cut to $111, citing peak valuations and tougher comps ahead in 2025
• Citi's previous bullish stance with $133 target was based on expansion potential, but risks have increased since then

Market Sentiment

• Stock has declined from recent highs around $114 to current $96.27
• Trading volume has increased on downward moves, suggesting selling pressure
• Technical indicators point to potential further weakness ahead

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is a retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory. The Company principally buys overproduced, overstocked, and closeout merchandise from manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors, brokers, and other retailers. Its warehouse format stores feature a number of categories, including housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics, as well as other products, including hardware, candy, clothing, sporting goods, pet and lawn and garden products. It operates over 513 stores in 30 states. Its retail locations are located in Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and West Virginia.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here is the price prediction for OLLI stock in 2030:

OLLI stock is projected to reach $145-155 by 2030, representing a ~60% upside from current levels. This forecast is supported by:

1. Strong fundamental growth trajectory with revenue CAGR of 8.2% over past 5 years and improving margins, combined with expansion opportunities from Big Lots store closures creating market share gains.

2. Defensive business model focused on value retail that performs well in various economic conditions, as evidenced by maintaining 98%+ occupancy rates historically and growing AFFO even during challenging periods.

3. Healthy balance sheet with low debt-to-equity of 0.11% and current ratio of 2.76x provides flexibility for continued store expansion and market consolidation.

OLLI has a total of 5500 employees.