Insurers to Suffer Losses Due to Winter Storm Fern
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 27 2026
0mins
Source: Barron's
Impact of Winter Storm Fern: The Eastern U.S. is recovering from Winter Storm Fern, which has caused significant disruptions and damage in the region.
Insurance Sector Analysis: A UBS analyst has evaluated which property and casualty insurers may face financial challenges due to the storm's impact.
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Analyst Views on ALL
Wall Street analysts forecast ALL stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 209.430
Low
207.00
Averages
239.64
High
281.00
Current: 209.430
Low
207.00
Averages
239.64
High
281.00
About ALL
The Allstate Corporation protects people from life’s uncertainties with a wide array of protection for autos, homes, electronic devices and identity theft. The Company’s products are available through Allstate agents, independent agents, major retailers, online and at the workplace. Its Allstate Protection segment offers private passenger auto, homeowners, other personal lines and commercial insurance. Its Run-off Property-Liability segment includes property and casualty insurance coverage. The Company’s Protection Services segment provides consumer product protection plans, device and mobile data collection services and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information, roadside assistance, protection and insurance products and identity protection and restoration through Allstate Protection Plans, Allstate Dealer Services, Allstate Roadside, Arity and Allstate Identity Protection.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Allstate Reports Estimated Catastrophe Losses of $175 Million for January
- Catastrophe Loss Overview: Allstate estimates catastrophe losses for January at $175 million, primarily due to Winter Storm Fern, with an after-tax impact of $138 million, which could negatively affect the company's financial health and future profitability.
- Policy Count Changes: As of January 31, 2026, Allstate's auto insurance policies totaled 254,840, a slight decrease of 0.1% from 255,040 on December 31, 2025, but a 2.6% increase from 248,350 a year earlier, indicating stable market demand.
- Homeowners Insurance Growth: Homeowners insurance policies reached 77,090 by January 31, 2026, up 0.2% from 76,970 on December 31, 2025, and a 2.5% increase from 75,210 a year ago, demonstrating the company's continued appeal in the residential insurance market.
- Commercial Insurance Decline: Commercial insurance policies fell from 17,600 on December 31, 2025, to 17,500, a decrease of 0.6%, and down 14.2% from 20,400 a year prior, reflecting challenges and increased competition in the commercial insurance sector.
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- Accident Rate Reduction: The rise of autonomous vehicles is projected to reduce accident rates by 75% to 90%, while current advanced driver-assistance systems can lower collision rates by 40%, directly impacting insurance claims and premium revenues.
- Valuation Pressure on Stocks: Analysts note that auto insurance accounts for over 90% of Progressive's insurance premiums, and the anticipated lower terminal growth rates could lead to significant declines in stock valuations, prompting investors to remain cautious.
- Market Reaction: Despite Progressive's stock falling over 11% this year, Wall Street expects a rebound, with analysts generally holding a buy rating on Allstate, forecasting over 19% upside potential in its stock price over the next 12 months.
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Allstate Estimates January Catastrophe Losses at $175M
- Loss Estimates: Allstate has projected January catastrophe losses of $175 million, or $138 million after-tax, primarily due to winter storm Fern, indicating the company's financial vulnerability to extreme weather events, which could impact future profitability.
- Comparative Analysis: In contrast, Allstate's estimated losses for December were $80 million, or $64 million after-tax, reflecting an increasing impact of winter weather on the insurance industry, which may lead to higher premiums.
- Stock Price Reaction: Following the loss forecast, Allstate's shares fell 0.50% in pre-market trading to $208.38, indicating investor concerns about the company's financial health, which could affect market confidence.
- Stable Policy Count: The number of protection policies in force in January remained virtually unchanged from December at 38.26 million, suggesting stability in customer retention but potentially limiting revenue growth opportunities.
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- Capital Gains Performance: Between November 13 and December 1, 2025, Allstate's stock price rose from $211.16 to $212.98, an increase of $1.82, suggesting that a pre-dividend buying strategy could yield significant capital gains for investors.
- Dividend Frequency and Yield: With a quarterly dividend frequency and an implied annualized yield of 2.08%, Allstate presents itself as an attractive option for investors focused on dividend runs, particularly in a stable income environment.
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Allstate Reports Estimated Catastrophe Losses of $175 Million for January
- Catastrophe Loss Overview: Allstate estimates catastrophe losses for January at $175 million, primarily due to Winter Storm Fern, with an after-tax impact of $138 million, which could negatively affect the company's financial health and future profitability.
- Policy Count Changes: As of January 31, 2026, Allstate's auto insurance policies totaled 254,840, a slight decrease of 0.1% from 255,040 on December 31, 2025, but a 2.6% increase from 248,350 a year earlier, indicating stable market demand.
- Homeowners Insurance Growth: Homeowners insurance policies reached 77,090 by January 31, 2026, up 0.2% from 76,970 on December 31, 2025, and a 2.5% increase from 75,210 a year ago, demonstrating the company's continued appeal in the residential insurance market.
- Commercial Insurance Decline: Commercial insurance policies fell from 17,600 on December 31, 2025, to 17,500, a decrease of 0.6%, and down 14.2% from 20,400 a year prior, reflecting challenges and increased competition in the commercial insurance sector.
See More
AI Disruption in Auto Insurance Market
- Market Size Outlook: According to BMO Capital Markets, the total addressable market for personal auto insurance is expected to peak at approximately $560 billion by 2040, followed by an annual decline of about 4%, which will have profound implications for insurers.
- Accident Rate Reduction: The rise of autonomous vehicles is projected to reduce accident rates by 75% to 90%, while current advanced driver-assistance systems can lower collision rates by 40%, directly impacting insurance claims and premium revenues.
- Valuation Pressure on Stocks: Analysts note that auto insurance accounts for over 90% of Progressive's insurance premiums, and the anticipated lower terminal growth rates could lead to significant declines in stock valuations, prompting investors to remain cautious.
- Market Reaction: Despite Progressive's stock falling over 11% this year, Wall Street expects a rebound, with analysts generally holding a buy rating on Allstate, forecasting over 19% upside potential in its stock price over the next 12 months.
See More
Allstate Estimates January Catastrophe Losses at $175M
- Loss Estimates: Allstate has projected January catastrophe losses of $175 million, or $138 million after-tax, primarily due to winter storm Fern, indicating the company's financial vulnerability to extreme weather events, which could impact future profitability.
- Comparative Analysis: In contrast, Allstate's estimated losses for December were $80 million, or $64 million after-tax, reflecting an increasing impact of winter weather on the insurance industry, which may lead to higher premiums.
- Stock Price Reaction: Following the loss forecast, Allstate's shares fell 0.50% in pre-market trading to $208.38, indicating investor concerns about the company's financial health, which could affect market confidence.
- Stable Policy Count: The number of protection policies in force in January remained virtually unchanged from December at 38.26 million, suggesting stability in customer retention but potentially limiting revenue growth opportunities.
See More
Allstate Corp Issues Potential Dividend Run Alert
- Dividend Run Concept: Allstate Corp is set to go ex-dividend on March 2, 2026, with a dividend of $1.08, and historical data indicates that in three out of the last four dividends, the stock experienced capital gains exceeding the dividend amount, highlighting the potential for a dividend run.
- Capital Gains Performance: Between November 13 and December 1, 2025, Allstate's stock price rose from $211.16 to $212.98, an increase of $1.82, suggesting that a pre-dividend buying strategy could yield significant capital gains for investors.
- Dividend Frequency and Yield: With a quarterly dividend frequency and an implied annualized yield of 2.08%, Allstate presents itself as an attractive option for investors focused on dividend runs, particularly in a stable income environment.
- Diverse Investment Strategies: Investors have varying perspectives on the timing of dividend runs, with some opting to buy two weeks prior and hold, while others prefer to sell the day before the ex-dividend date to maximize capital gains, offering flexibility in investment strategies.
See More
Wall Street Analysts Adjust Ratings
- Analyst Rating Changes: Top Wall Street analysts have adjusted their ratings on several companies, indicating a shift in market sentiment regarding these firms' prospects, which could influence investor decisions and market dynamics.
- Upgrades and Downgrades: While specific names of upgrades and downgrades are not detailed, such changes typically have a direct impact on the short-term performance of the affected stocks, prompting investors to pay close attention to these shifts.
- Market Reaction Expectations: Adjustments in analyst ratings may trigger market volatility, especially when investor expectations are high for certain stocks, potentially leading to significant price fluctuations.
- Investor Decision Impact: Investors considering buying WMT stock should take into account the latest insights from analysts to make more informed investment decisions, even though specific analyst opinions were not elaborated in the report.
See More
Analysts Identify Potential Growth in These 3 Financial Giants with Increasing Dividends
Dividend Trends: Dividends are increasing for leading companies in asset management and insurance markets, with analysts indicating significant upside potential for firms like Blackstone, which has a substantial asset management portfolio.
Blackstone Performance: Despite a recent -23% total return over the past 52 weeks, Blackstone's dividend yield remains strong, with a recent quarterly dividend increase of 15%, reflecting a positive outlook from analysts.
Charles Schwab Growth: Charles Schwab has experienced impressive growth, with a 27% total return over the past year and a 19% increase in its dividend, indicating strong financial health and investor confidence.
Allstate's Financials: Allstate reported a decent total return of 10% over the past year, with a substantial 8% increase in its quarterly dividend, showcasing solid performance and a favorable outlook among analysts.
See More
