Google and Meta Gain Ground as Nvidia Declines; AI ETFs Experience Uncommon Divide Between Big Tech and Thematic Trades
Alphabet's Valuation Surge: Alphabet Inc. saw a significant increase in its stock value, driven by reports of Meta potentially using Google's AI chips, while AI-focused ETFs struggled due to declines in Nvidia and AMD shares.
Impact on Semiconductor ETFs: The drop in Nvidia and AMD shares negatively affected semiconductor ETFs like VanEck and iShares, which rely heavily on Nvidia's performance, raising concerns about the stability of these funds.
QQQ's Resilience: Despite the semiconductor sector's struggles, the Invesco QQQ Trust managed to rise slightly, supported by its strong holdings in Alphabet and other major tech companies, demonstrating the strength of broad tech exposure.
Evolving AI Investment Landscape: The divergence between Alphabet's stock performance and the stagnation of AI-themed ETFs indicates a shift in the AI investment landscape, suggesting that traditional ETF structures may not fully capture the growth of platform giants like Alphabet.
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- Stock Split Motivation: Meta has yet to execute a stock split despite its stock price rising over 200% in the past three years, currently trading around $670, which may deter some investors due to its psychological price barrier.
- Market Performance Analysis: Although Meta's stock has declined over 6% in the past year, its market capitalization remains at $1.7 trillion, indicating the company's strong position and potential investment appeal in the market.
- AI Investment Priority: Meta has recently focused on enhancing its AI capabilities and infrastructure investments, suggesting that a stock split is not a current priority but may be reconsidered in 2026.
- Future Outlook: Should Meta's stock gain momentum and rise quickly in the coming year, it may contemplate executing a stock split, aligning itself with other tech giants to attract more investors.
- Market Value Loss: On Thursday, Wall Street's tech sector saw over $500 billion wiped off market value across 10 major companies, indicating a sharp decline in investor confidence amid simultaneous pressures on both software and hardware sectors.
- Cisco Earnings Impact: Cisco's stock plummeted 11% despite reporting earnings of $1.04 per share, exceeding expectations, as the company’s gross margin guidance of 65.5%-66.5% fell short of the 68% consensus, highlighting the impact of rising hardware costs.
- Memory Shortage Risks: Lenovo confirmed mounting pressure on PC shipments, with CEO Yang Yuanqing stating that while unit pressures are expected, the company aims to maintain profitability, reflecting growing concerns over memory shortages in the industry.
- Software Sector Decline: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF dropped over 3% on Thursday, with the sector down over 20% year-to-date, illustrating the ongoing impact of fears surrounding AI disruption on software stock performance.
- AI Threat to Software Sector: Fundstrat's Tom Lee warns that AI is wreaking havoc on the $450 billion software sector, predicting significant job losses as software companies face existential threats, potentially leading to deflationary pressures.
- Changing Inflation Expectations: The core CPI is projected to drop to 2.52% in Friday's report, aligning with the 2017-2019 average, indicating a return to pre-COVID inflation levels, which may prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish monetary policy.
- Market Capital Flow: Lee notes that investors are rotating out of the Magnificent 7 into companies supplying AI infrastructure, such as energy providers and industrial manufacturers, which could trigger a 10-20% decline in the U.S. market.
- Crypto Market Bottom Signal: Despite challenges, Lee believes the crypto market shows signs of bottoming due to positive fundamentals, even as investors struggle with the decision to stay in crypto versus moving to stocks and gold.
- Tech Stock Pressure: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.52% and the Nasdaq 100 index dropped by 1.08% due to weakness in the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, indicating investor concerns that could dampen market confidence.
- Cisco Profit Warning: Cisco Systems forecasted that rising memory chip prices would erode profitability, leading to a more than 10% drop in its stock price, which may prompt investors to revise down their future performance expectations, negatively impacting overall market sentiment.
- Employment Data Impact: Initial US jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 227,000, reflecting a slightly weaker labor market, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and lower market expectations for future rate cuts.
- Chip Demand Recovery: Sandisk's stock rose over 7% following Kioxia's forecast of strong demand for NAND memory chips, indicating growth potential in the AI infrastructure sector, which may create new investment opportunities for related companies.
- Concentration of Money Flows: Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, indicating a high dependency on these companies, which could lead to concentrated investment risks.
- Apple's Outflow: In early trading, Apple Inc (AAPL) experienced negative money flows, suggesting a decline in investor confidence that may impact its short-term stock performance.
- Divergent ETF Performance: Both SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) saw positive money flows in early trading, reflecting market optimism towards these indices, potentially driving related stocks higher.
- Investment Strategy Advice: Investors are advised to continue holding quality long-term positions while adding tactical investments based on market signals, and to stay within the Arora Protection Band to participate in upside while protecting against downside risks.
- Earnings Report: Pinterest is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday afternoon.
- Restructuring Plan: The company is implementing a restructuring plan that includes laying off up to 15% of its workforce.
- Investment in AI: Savings from the layoffs will be redirected towards investing in artificial intelligence technology.
- Ad Revenue Strategy: This strategy aims to boost ad revenue, similar to approaches taken by Meta Platforms.









