Futures Rise on Declining Oil Prices
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy SHEL?
Futures are higher this morning, helped by another sharp decline in oil prices on optimism around a potential U.S.-Iran framework agreement. Crude dropping back toward the low-$90s is relieving pressure on inflation expectations and taking some stress out of rates.Semiconductor and hyperscaler momentum has gone global. Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the U.S. are all participating simultaneously, and trillion-dollar market caps are expanding outside the traditional mega-cap U.S. cohort. The market is effectively treating AI infrastructure spending as a multi-year capex supercycle.First quarter results continue to come in strong, especially in anything tied to compute, networking or data-center demand. Analysts are still revising forward earnings estimates higher, which is one reason the market has been able to absorb elevated valuations better than many expected. On the other hand, large parts of enterprise software and more economically sensitive areas are lagging. Oil and bond markets are still signaling inflation and geopolitical risk, while equities are increasingly acting as if those risks are temporary or irrelevant.In pre-market trading, S&P 500 futures rose 0.16%, Nasdaq futures rose 0.12% and Dow futures rose 0.25%.Check out this morning's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.UP AFTER EARNINGS -Datadogup 28%Fortinetup 15%Howmet Aerospaceup 11%Unityup 8%Warby Parkerup 7%Pelotonup 7%Six Flagsup 6%Tapestryup 4%McDonaldsup 2%Becton Dickinsonup 2%TripAdvisorup 1%DOWN AFTER EARNINGS -Planet Fitnessdown 19%Zoetisdown 13%Snapdown 8%Armdown 7%US Foodsdown 5%Coherentdown 5%Papa John'sdown 3%Shelldown 2%
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Analyst Views on SHEL
Wall Street analysts forecast SHEL stock price to fall
10 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 84.240
Low
41.75
Averages
74.27
High
91.00
Current: 84.240
Low
41.75
Averages
74.27
High
91.00
About SHEL
Shell plc is an international energy company engaged in the principal aspects of the energy and petrochemical industries. The Company's segments include Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, Renewables and Energy Solutions, and Corporate. The Integrated Gas segment includes liquefied natural gas (LNG), conversion of natural gas into gas-to-liquids (GTL) fuels and other products. It includes natural gas and liquids exploration and extraction, and the operation of the upstream and midstream infrastructure. The Upstream segment includes exploration and extraction of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. It also markets and transports oil and gas and operates the infrastructure necessary to deliver them to the market. The Marketing segment comprises the Mobility, Lubricants, and Sectors & Decarbonization businesses. The Chemicals and Products segment includes chemicals manufacturing plants with their own marketing network, and refineries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
China Amasses World's Largest Crude Oil Stockpile
- Oil Reserve Scale: China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic reserves in 2025, bringing its total to approximately 360 million barrels by December 2025, closely approaching the U.S. reserves of nearly 414 million barrels, highlighting China's significant role in the global energy market.
- Impact on U.S. Relations: The increase in Chinese imports of Iranian crude could prompt the U.S. to impose a second round of sanctions on Sino-Iranian trade, escalating tensions between the two nations and potentially affecting the agenda of the upcoming high-level meeting.
- Market Dynamics Shift: According to Kpler, the completion of Middle Eastern cargo discharges has led to a rapid inventory drawdown, which may slow refining rates and further impact global oil price volatility, indicating a shift in market dynamics.
- Strategic Reserve Role: China's strategic petroleum reserves serve as a hedge against supply constraints and price volatility, particularly amid escalating tensions with the U.S. and sanctions, underscoring its strategic significance in global energy security.
See More
Iran War Reshapes Global Energy Landscape
- Energy Security Priority: The Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in a loss of nearly one billion barrels of oil, highlighting the fragility of the global energy system and prompting governments and companies to prioritize energy security, leading to increased investment in oil exploration and production.
- Supply Diversification Demand: The closure of the Strait has underscored Asian economies' dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil and LNG, prompting nations to reassess their energy security and seek diversified supplies to mitigate risks in the future.
- Inventory Rebuilding Plans: Due to war impacts, global oil inventories have been hit, and countries are expected to rebuild stockpiles above historical levels to ensure energy security, further driving demand for U.S. crude.
- African Investment Opportunities: Elevated oil prices will stimulate investments in offshore and deepwater opportunities in Africa, the Americas, and Asia, with SLB's CEO noting Africa as a key long-term investment area, anticipating a favorable shift in portfolio allocations towards the region.
See More
Iran War Causes Massive Global Oil Supply Shortage
- Severe Supply Disruption: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a 57% drop in Persian Gulf oil production from pre-war levels, resulting in a nearly 1 billion barrel supply shortage that Shell's CEO warns is worsening daily, threatening global oil supply stability.
- Accelerated Inventory Drawdown: With global oil consumption at approximately 100 million barrels per day, the industry is currently depleting stockpiles at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels daily, highlighting the urgent demand for oil that may persist for several months.
- Long Road to Recovery: Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, oil production in the Persian Gulf won't recover quickly, with S&P Global estimating that most wells may take up to seven months to restart, exacerbating the supply crunch.
- Investment Strategy Shift: Given the likelihood of sustained high oil prices, investors should consider reducing exposure to energy-intensive sectors while increasing allocations to oil stocks to prepare for potential fuel shortages and price hikes.
See More
Global Oil Supply Gap Reaches 1 Billion Barrels
- Escalating Supply Shortage: The ongoing war with Iran has led to a global oil supply shortfall of nearly 1 billion barrels, a situation expected to worsen, which will keep oil prices elevated for the remainder of the year and pose fuel shortage risks for import-reliant Asian and European markets.
- Significant Production Decline: Oil production in the Persian Gulf has plummeted by 57% from pre-war levels, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz preventing the global economy from meeting its daily demand of 100 million barrels, forcing the industry to deplete stockpiles at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day.
- Long Road to Recovery: Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, Persian Gulf oil production will not return to normal overnight, with S&P Global estimating that it could take up to seven months to restart most wells, further exacerbating the supply crunch.
- Investor Strategy: Given the persistent high oil prices, investors should reduce exposure to energy-intensive sectors and increase allocations to oil stocks to prepare for potential supply shocks and price fluctuations in the future.
See More
Consumer Confidence Decline Impacts Stock Market
- Market Volatility: Shares of several consumer-focused companies plummeted yesterday, with Planet Fitness down over 30%, marking its largest one-day loss ever, indicating market concerns about consumer health that could hinder overall economic recovery.
- Shake Shack Earnings Miss: Shake Shack's stock dropped more than 28% following an operating loss and earnings miss in Q1, reflecting weak consumer spending that may pressure future performance.
- Job Data Expectations: The U.S. is expected to add 55,000 jobs in April, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, a figure that could sway market sentiment, as JPMorgan's trading desk warns of potential significant market swings.
- Cloudflare Layoffs Impact: Cloudflare announced it would cut over one-fifth of its workforce, leading to a 15% pre-market drop in its stock, despite beating Q1 earnings expectations, indicating the company's cautious outlook on future market conditions.
See More
Consumer Confidence Decline Impacts Stock Market
- Market Volatility: Shares of several consumer-focused companies plummeted, with Planet Fitness down over 30%, marking its largest one-day loss ever, reflecting market concerns about consumer health that could hinder overall economic recovery.
- Job Data Expectations: The U.S. is expected to add 55,000 jobs in April, a significant slowdown from March, with the unemployment rate projected to hold steady at 4.3%, potentially triggering significant market swings as investors await the employment report.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz have reignited, with the U.S. and Iran exchanging fire, and although Trump claims the ceasefire remains intact, the escalating situation could negatively impact oil prices and market sentiment.
- Cloudflare Layoffs: Cloudflare announced it would cut over 20% of its workforce, leading to a 15% drop in shares before the bell, despite beating first-quarter earnings expectations, indicating a significant shift in the company's future direction that may affect investor confidence.
See More
China Amasses World's Largest Crude Oil Stockpile
- Oil Reserve Scale: China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic reserves in 2025, bringing its total to approximately 360 million barrels by December 2025, closely approaching the U.S. reserves of nearly 414 million barrels, highlighting China's significant role in the global energy market.
- Impact on U.S. Relations: The increase in Chinese imports of Iranian crude could prompt the U.S. to impose a second round of sanctions on Sino-Iranian trade, escalating tensions between the two nations and potentially affecting the agenda of the upcoming high-level meeting.
- Market Dynamics Shift: According to Kpler, the completion of Middle Eastern cargo discharges has led to a rapid inventory drawdown, which may slow refining rates and further impact global oil price volatility, indicating a shift in market dynamics.
- Strategic Reserve Role: China's strategic petroleum reserves serve as a hedge against supply constraints and price volatility, particularly amid escalating tensions with the U.S. and sanctions, underscoring its strategic significance in global energy security.
See More
Iran War Reshapes Global Energy Landscape
- Energy Security Priority: The Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in a loss of nearly one billion barrels of oil, highlighting the fragility of the global energy system and prompting governments and companies to prioritize energy security, leading to increased investment in oil exploration and production.
- Supply Diversification Demand: The closure of the Strait has underscored Asian economies' dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil and LNG, prompting nations to reassess their energy security and seek diversified supplies to mitigate risks in the future.
- Inventory Rebuilding Plans: Due to war impacts, global oil inventories have been hit, and countries are expected to rebuild stockpiles above historical levels to ensure energy security, further driving demand for U.S. crude.
- African Investment Opportunities: Elevated oil prices will stimulate investments in offshore and deepwater opportunities in Africa, the Americas, and Asia, with SLB's CEO noting Africa as a key long-term investment area, anticipating a favorable shift in portfolio allocations towards the region.
See More
Iran War Causes Massive Global Oil Supply Shortage
- Severe Supply Disruption: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a 57% drop in Persian Gulf oil production from pre-war levels, resulting in a nearly 1 billion barrel supply shortage that Shell's CEO warns is worsening daily, threatening global oil supply stability.
- Accelerated Inventory Drawdown: With global oil consumption at approximately 100 million barrels per day, the industry is currently depleting stockpiles at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels daily, highlighting the urgent demand for oil that may persist for several months.
- Long Road to Recovery: Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, oil production in the Persian Gulf won't recover quickly, with S&P Global estimating that most wells may take up to seven months to restart, exacerbating the supply crunch.
- Investment Strategy Shift: Given the likelihood of sustained high oil prices, investors should consider reducing exposure to energy-intensive sectors while increasing allocations to oil stocks to prepare for potential fuel shortages and price hikes.
See More
Global Oil Supply Gap Reaches 1 Billion Barrels
- Escalating Supply Shortage: The ongoing war with Iran has led to a global oil supply shortfall of nearly 1 billion barrels, a situation expected to worsen, which will keep oil prices elevated for the remainder of the year and pose fuel shortage risks for import-reliant Asian and European markets.
- Significant Production Decline: Oil production in the Persian Gulf has plummeted by 57% from pre-war levels, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz preventing the global economy from meeting its daily demand of 100 million barrels, forcing the industry to deplete stockpiles at a record pace of 11 to 12 million barrels per day.
- Long Road to Recovery: Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, Persian Gulf oil production will not return to normal overnight, with S&P Global estimating that it could take up to seven months to restart most wells, further exacerbating the supply crunch.
- Investor Strategy: Given the persistent high oil prices, investors should reduce exposure to energy-intensive sectors and increase allocations to oil stocks to prepare for potential supply shocks and price fluctuations in the future.
See More
Consumer Confidence Decline Impacts Stock Market
- Market Volatility: Shares of several consumer-focused companies plummeted yesterday, with Planet Fitness down over 30%, marking its largest one-day loss ever, indicating market concerns about consumer health that could hinder overall economic recovery.
- Shake Shack Earnings Miss: Shake Shack's stock dropped more than 28% following an operating loss and earnings miss in Q1, reflecting weak consumer spending that may pressure future performance.
- Job Data Expectations: The U.S. is expected to add 55,000 jobs in April, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%, a figure that could sway market sentiment, as JPMorgan's trading desk warns of potential significant market swings.
- Cloudflare Layoffs Impact: Cloudflare announced it would cut over one-fifth of its workforce, leading to a 15% pre-market drop in its stock, despite beating Q1 earnings expectations, indicating the company's cautious outlook on future market conditions.
See More
Consumer Confidence Decline Impacts Stock Market
- Market Volatility: Shares of several consumer-focused companies plummeted, with Planet Fitness down over 30%, marking its largest one-day loss ever, reflecting market concerns about consumer health that could hinder overall economic recovery.
- Job Data Expectations: The U.S. is expected to add 55,000 jobs in April, a significant slowdown from March, with the unemployment rate projected to hold steady at 4.3%, potentially triggering significant market swings as investors await the employment report.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz have reignited, with the U.S. and Iran exchanging fire, and although Trump claims the ceasefire remains intact, the escalating situation could negatively impact oil prices and market sentiment.
- Cloudflare Layoffs: Cloudflare announced it would cut over 20% of its workforce, leading to a 15% drop in shares before the bell, despite beating first-quarter earnings expectations, indicating a significant shift in the company's future direction that may affect investor confidence.
See More
