Federal Reserve Faces Rising Recession Risks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 25 2026
0mins
Should l Buy GS?
Source: CNBC
- Rising Recession Expectations: Moody's Analytics has raised its recession probability for the next 12 months to 48.6%, significantly above the normal expectation of around 20%, indicating heightened uncertainty in economic outlook due to escalating geopolitical risks.
- Impact of Rising Oil Prices: Oil prices have surged by $1.02, or 35%, over the past month, which could accelerate the onset of a recession, particularly as consumer spending and the labor market face increasing pressures, further exacerbating the risk of economic slowdown.
- Weak Labor Market: The U.S. economy created only 116,000 jobs in 2025, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%, primarily due to a lack of hiring rather than layoffs, highlighting vulnerabilities in the labor market that could negatively impact consumer spending.
- Declining Consumer Confidence: A survey by NerdWallet revealed that 65% of respondents expect a recession within the next 12 months, up 6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a growing pessimism among consumers regarding the economic outlook.
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Analyst Views on GS
Wall Street analysts forecast GS stock price to rise
12 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 845.990
Low
604.00
Averages
951.45
High
1100
Current: 845.990
Low
604.00
Averages
951.45
High
1100
About GS
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a global financial institution that delivers a range of financial services to a large and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and individuals. Its segments include Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management and Platform Solutions. The Global Banking & Markets segment offers a range of services, including financing, advisory services, risk distribution, and hedging for its institutional and corporate clients. It facilitates client transactions and makes markets in fixed income, equity, currency and commodity products. The Asset & Wealth Management segment manages assets and offers investment products across all asset classes to a diverse set of clients. It also provides investing and wealth advisory solutions. The Platform Solutions segment includes consumer platforms, such as partnerships offering credit cards and point-of-sale financing, and transaction banking and other platform businesses.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Oil Price Surge: Following the speech, international benchmark Brent crude futures rose nearly 6%, with Trump attributing the price increase to Iranian attacks on commercial oil tankers, illustrating the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets.
- Negative Market Reaction: Asia-Pacific markets broadly declined after Trump's address, with major indices such as Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 all retreating, reflecting investor unease about the future situation.
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- Iran's Response: Despite Trump's claim that Iran's new regime requested a ceasefire, Iranian officials denied this request, stating that there are currently no negotiations, which adds complexity and uncertainty to the situation and could affect market sentiment.
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Trump's Address Triggers Market Volatility
- War Progress Update: In his national address, Trump claimed unprecedented victories in the U.S. campaign dubbed 'Operation Epic Fury,' while forecasting the conflict to last another two to three weeks, heightening market concerns about future developments.
- Oil Price Surge: Following the speech, international benchmark Brent crude futures rose nearly 6%, with Trump attributing the price increase to Iranian attacks on commercial oil tankers, illustrating the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets.
- Negative Market Reaction: Asia-Pacific markets broadly declined after Trump's address, with major indices such as Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 all retreating, reflecting investor unease about the future situation.
- Escalating Tensions with Iran: Trump threatened that the U.S. would continue to strike Iran hard unless the Strait of Hormuz is 'open, free, and clear,' indicating a worsening relationship between the U.S. and Iran that could affect global energy supplies.
See More
U.S. Markets Rise on Optimism Over Middle East Situation
- Market Optimism: All three major U.S. indexes rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.72% and 1.16%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 224.23 points or 0.48%, reflecting heightened investor optimism regarding a potential end to the U.S.-Iran war.
- Trump's Address Anticipation: President Trump is expected to address the nation at 9 p.m. ET tonight to provide updates on the Iran ceasefire talks, with market participants closely monitoring the speech for potential impacts on stock prices.
- Iran's Response: Despite Trump's claim that Iran's new regime requested a ceasefire, Iranian officials denied this request, stating that there are currently no negotiations, which adds complexity and uncertainty to the situation and could affect market sentiment.
- Tech Company Developments: SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO, setting the stage for a record offering, following a significant funding round for OpenAI, indicating strong activity and investor confidence in the tech sector, which may drive related stock prices higher.
See More
Optimistic Outlook for Bank Stocks' Rebound
- Market Sentiment Recovery: The two-day rally on Wall Street, driven by hopes of a resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict, indicates a renewed optimism for bank stocks, which could see reduced downside risk and a potential revival in investment banking if a ceasefire is achieved.
- Massive IPO Potential: The anticipated IPOs of companies like OpenAI and SpaceX, with SpaceX valued at $1.75 trillion and collaborating with banks like Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo, highlight strong market demand for large transactions that could significantly boost banks' revenues.
- Interest Rate Policy Impact: The potential for a new Fed chair to implement more accommodative monetary policy could lead to lower borrowing costs; while this may compress banks' net interest income, it could also stimulate loan demand, supporting revenue growth for Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo.
- Earnings Outlook Positive: Upcoming earnings reports from Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo are highly anticipated, particularly with Goldman expected to see a 25% year-over-year revenue increase in its investment banking division, and Wells Fargo projecting net interest income of $50 billion, indicating robust growth potential.
See More
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- Sales Forecast Downgrade: Nike anticipates a sales decline of 2% to 4% for the current quarter, significantly worse than the 1.9% growth analysts expected, primarily due to a projected 20% drop in China, negatively impacting overall performance.
- Gross Margin Decline: Nike's gross margin has fallen for seven consecutive quarters, and rising input costs due to the Middle East conflict may complicate future margin recovery, potentially affecting profitability.
- Market Reaction: The slow turnaround has led to downgrades from three major Wall Street banks, indicating diminishing investor patience regarding the company's growth prospects, especially with an unclear timeline for sales recovery.
- Management's Lack of Confidence: Although management expresses optimism about recovery in North America, the vague timeline for achieving balanced growth suggests ongoing challenges, with CEO Hill acknowledging that the recovery process is more complex than anticipated.
See More
Eli Lilly Gains FDA Approval, Shares Rise
- FDA Drug Approval: Eli Lilly's once-daily GLP-1 pill Foundayo received FDA approval, leading to a 4% rise in shares, which will enhance the company's competitive edge in the obesity treatment market and drive future sales growth.
- Cybersecurity Incident Impact: Hasbro's shares fell over 4% due to a cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized network access, with the company investigating the full impact and implementing protective measures, potentially increasing operational costs in the short term.
- Tobacco Product Delay: Philip Morris International's shares dropped more than 5% after the FDA delayed authorization for nicotine pouch sales, which may hinder the company's future market expansion plans, particularly among new user demographics.
- Semiconductor Buyback Plan: Intel announced a $14.2 billion buyback of a 49% stake in its Ireland Fab 34 joint venture, resulting in a 9% increase in shares, with funding sourced from cash on hand and approximately $6.5 billion in new debt, expected to strengthen its position in the global semiconductor market.
See More
Market Watch: Corporate Dynamics and Analysis
- Nike's Disappointing Performance: Despite beating revenue and earnings expectations, Nike issued weak guidance due to inventory issues and a slowdown in North American growth, prompting downgrades from Goldman, JPMorgan, and Bank of America, reflecting market concerns about its future performance.
- RH's Poor Earnings Report: Luxury home furnishings maker RH fell short on key metrics in its fourth quarter, and its current quarter guidance was also weak, impacted by tariffs and a sluggish housing market, leading to an 18% drop in shares, although its full-year cash flow guidance improved, the overall outlook remains bleak.
- Arm's Price Target Increase: Wells Fargo raised Arm's price target from $165 to $175, with analysts optimistic about Arm's entry into the data center CPU market with its first in-house silicon offering, reiterating a buy rating, indicating strong market confidence in its competition against Intel and AMD.
- Boeing Stock Rating Upgrade: Wells Fargo upgraded Boeing's stock to buy with a price target of $250, implying over 25% upside from yesterday's close, as analysts favor Boeing's free cash flow recovery and overall turnaround under CEO Kelly Ortberg, suggesting potential returns for investors.
See More
