Costco Faces Rare Underperformance Amid Strong Business Metrics
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 04 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Membership Model Advantage: Costco stands out in the retail market with its unique membership model, boasting nearly 1,000 stores and $280 billion in annual sales, maintaining a leading position despite competition from BJ's and Walmart.
- High Customer Satisfaction: With renewal rates exceeding 90%, Costco's executive members account for nearly half of total membership yet contribute 74% of total sales, highlighting the critical role of membership in profitability.
- Stable Sales Growth: For the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ending November 23, 2025), Costco reported an 8.2% year-over-year sales increase, with a 14% rise in fee income and a 5.2% membership growth, demonstrating resilience in a high-inflation environment.
- Increasing Market Concerns: Despite Costco's reliable growth, the market is worried about the sustainability of sales growth, particularly with a slight dip in renewal rates and a premium P/E ratio of 54, significantly above the three-year average of 49, potentially limiting short-term stock price upside.
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Analyst Views on COST
Wall Street analysts forecast COST stock price to rise
24 Analyst Rating
19 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1033.080
Low
769.00
Averages
1061
High
1205
Current: 1033.080
Low
769.00
Averages
1061
High
1205
About COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation (Costco) operates membership warehouses and e-commerce sites that offer a selection of nationally branded and private-label products in a wide range of categories. The Company buys the majority of its merchandise directly from suppliers and route it to cross-docking consolidation points (depots) or directly to its warehouses. It operates 891 warehouses, including 614 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 108 in Canada, 40 in Mexico, 35 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 19 in Korea, 15 in Australia, 14 in Taiwan, seven in China, five in Spain, two in France, and one each in Iceland, New Zealand and Sweden. It also operates e-commerce sites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia. The Company provides wide selection of merchandise, plus the convenience of specialty departments and exclusive member services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Costco Stock Rebounds in 2026, Driven by Strong International Performance
- International Growth: Costco plans to open 28 net new stores in 2026, targeting at least 30 annually in the long term, highlighting its potential for expansion in international markets, particularly in China and Canada where performance has been strong.
- Strong Sales Growth: As of the second quarter of fiscal 2025, international comparable sales increased by 13% year-over-year, driving the company's overall comparable sales up to 7.4%, indicating Costco's growing competitiveness in the global market.
- Market Recovery: After a 5% decline in stock price in 2025, Costco has rebounded in 2026, surpassing market performance, reflecting investor confidence in its sustained growth potential, especially amid slowing consumer spending.
- New Store Strategy: With 637 stores in the U.S., Costco is actively opening new locations globally, particularly in markets like Japan and the U.K., further solidifying its market position and enhancing brand influence.
See More
Investment Outlook: Walmart vs. Costco
- Stock Performance Comparison: Over the past five years, Walmart's stock has risen approximately 190%, while Costco's has increased by 175%, both outperforming the S&P 500's 82% gain, indicating strong resilience in fluctuating economic conditions.
- Valuation and Market Cap Analysis: Walmart's market cap has reached $1 trillion, while Costco stands at around $450 billion; despite both appearing overvalued, Walmart's P/E ratio is 53, compared to Costco's 48, reflecting high market expectations for both companies.
- Growth Potential Assessment: Although both retailers are experiencing single-digit growth, Costco's growth rate typically exceeds Walmart's, particularly when consumer spending appetite increases, highlighting its potential advantage in economic recovery scenarios.
- Market Positioning Differences: Walmart focuses more on essentials, while Costco encourages higher discretionary spending; as economic conditions improve, Costco's growth potential may be greater, especially in e-commerce and new market expansions.
See More
Christmas Goods Price Hike Risks Increase
- Price Increase Trend: Chinese suppliers are raising prices for U.S. retailers like Walmart and Costco, with increases of up to 5% for some products and 15% for smaller merchants, reflecting the pressure from soaring raw material costs.
- Home Goods Impact: Home furnishing prices are up 10%-15%, and artificial Christmas trees could see a 10% increase, which will directly affect consumer purchasing decisions as the Christmas season approaches.
- Consumer Spending Tightening: Amid rising inflation, American consumers are tightening their spending, and higher prices are expected to be passed on to consumers, further squeezing household budgets.
- Stable Toy Prices: Despite overall price hikes, toy prices remain stable due to intense market competition and weaker demand, leaving retailers with limited negotiation flexibility.
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Market Pullback as AI Stocks Face Pressure
- Market Pullback Reasons: On Tuesday, the Nasdaq fell 1.5% and the S&P 500 dropped about 0.6%, primarily due to rising oil prices and inflation concerns, leading to a cautious investor sentiment that negatively impacted AI-related stocks.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: U.S. WTI crude prices peaked above $102 per barrel on Tuesday, settling at $98.07, with uncertainties in the oil market exacerbating investor worries, particularly in the context of the Iran peace deal.
- Rising Rate Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's probability of a rate hike by year-end increased from 24% to 36%, causing unease among investors regarding future monetary policy shifts, especially impacting high P/E stocks.
- AI Stock Corrections: Following a rapid surge in AI-related stocks, the market is experiencing profit-taking, and while we believe the AI trade is not over, some profit-taking may persist in the near term, affecting data center-related stocks like Corning, GE Vernova, and Broadcom.
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Market Outlook: Inflation Pressures and Tech Stock Dynamics
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- Nvidia's Earnings Outlook Positive: Despite Nvidia's stock hitting a record high with a 16% gain over the past month, analysts maintain a bullish stance, believing the stock, trading at under 20 times 2028 earnings estimates, is worth buying, with price targets raised from $265 to $315.
- AMD and Super Micro Price Target Increases: Mizuho raised AMD's price target from $414 to $515, citing agentic AI driving server demand, while Super Micro's target was increased to $36 due to strong AI server demand, although concerns linger about the company's ties to China.
- Qnity Electronics Strong Performance: Qnity Electronics reported better-than-expected earnings with a 17% organic sales growth driven by the AI boom, leading to a more than 3% stock increase, indicating strong market demand and future growth potential.
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Retail Traders Show Renewed Optimism in Tech Stocks
- Surge in Retail Trading: According to Cboe's report, retail traders are buying calls on the 'Mag 10' stocks at the highest rate since 2021, with 52% of new positions being call purchases, indicating strong investor confidence in a market rebound.
- Market Sentiment Reversal: The current call-buying metric has risen 15 points from a month ago, suggesting that investors have shifted focus from geopolitical concerns and oil prices to actively participating in the market rally.
- Options Prices Soar: The price of call contracts on the Nasdaq-100 index has reached a 52-week high, nearing a three-year record, reflecting strong demand for tech stocks and bullish investor sentiment.
- Increased Single-Stock Volatility: As traders focus more on single stocks, the ratio of Cboe's S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index to VIX has widened to the 98th percentile, indicating a significant rise in attention towards individual stocks in the market.
See More
Costco Stock Rebounds in 2026, Driven by Strong International Performance
- International Growth: Costco plans to open 28 net new stores in 2026, targeting at least 30 annually in the long term, highlighting its potential for expansion in international markets, particularly in China and Canada where performance has been strong.
- Strong Sales Growth: As of the second quarter of fiscal 2025, international comparable sales increased by 13% year-over-year, driving the company's overall comparable sales up to 7.4%, indicating Costco's growing competitiveness in the global market.
- Market Recovery: After a 5% decline in stock price in 2025, Costco has rebounded in 2026, surpassing market performance, reflecting investor confidence in its sustained growth potential, especially amid slowing consumer spending.
- New Store Strategy: With 637 stores in the U.S., Costco is actively opening new locations globally, particularly in markets like Japan and the U.K., further solidifying its market position and enhancing brand influence.
See More
Investment Outlook: Walmart vs. Costco
- Stock Performance Comparison: Over the past five years, Walmart's stock has risen approximately 190%, while Costco's has increased by 175%, both outperforming the S&P 500's 82% gain, indicating strong resilience in fluctuating economic conditions.
- Valuation and Market Cap Analysis: Walmart's market cap has reached $1 trillion, while Costco stands at around $450 billion; despite both appearing overvalued, Walmart's P/E ratio is 53, compared to Costco's 48, reflecting high market expectations for both companies.
- Growth Potential Assessment: Although both retailers are experiencing single-digit growth, Costco's growth rate typically exceeds Walmart's, particularly when consumer spending appetite increases, highlighting its potential advantage in economic recovery scenarios.
- Market Positioning Differences: Walmart focuses more on essentials, while Costco encourages higher discretionary spending; as economic conditions improve, Costco's growth potential may be greater, especially in e-commerce and new market expansions.
See More
Christmas Goods Price Hike Risks Increase
- Price Increase Trend: Chinese suppliers are raising prices for U.S. retailers like Walmart and Costco, with increases of up to 5% for some products and 15% for smaller merchants, reflecting the pressure from soaring raw material costs.
- Home Goods Impact: Home furnishing prices are up 10%-15%, and artificial Christmas trees could see a 10% increase, which will directly affect consumer purchasing decisions as the Christmas season approaches.
- Consumer Spending Tightening: Amid rising inflation, American consumers are tightening their spending, and higher prices are expected to be passed on to consumers, further squeezing household budgets.
- Stable Toy Prices: Despite overall price hikes, toy prices remain stable due to intense market competition and weaker demand, leaving retailers with limited negotiation flexibility.
See More
Market Pullback as AI Stocks Face Pressure
- Market Pullback Reasons: On Tuesday, the Nasdaq fell 1.5% and the S&P 500 dropped about 0.6%, primarily due to rising oil prices and inflation concerns, leading to a cautious investor sentiment that negatively impacted AI-related stocks.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: U.S. WTI crude prices peaked above $102 per barrel on Tuesday, settling at $98.07, with uncertainties in the oil market exacerbating investor worries, particularly in the context of the Iran peace deal.
- Rising Rate Expectations: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's probability of a rate hike by year-end increased from 24% to 36%, causing unease among investors regarding future monetary policy shifts, especially impacting high P/E stocks.
- AI Stock Corrections: Following a rapid surge in AI-related stocks, the market is experiencing profit-taking, and while we believe the AI trade is not over, some profit-taking may persist in the near term, affecting data center-related stocks like Corning, GE Vernova, and Broadcom.
See More
Market Outlook: Inflation Pressures and Tech Stock Dynamics
- Inflation Data Surprises: April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding the 3.7% expectation, while core CPI also slightly surpassed forecasts at 2.8%, putting pressure on Fed rate cut hopes and potentially affecting market sentiment.
- Nvidia's Earnings Outlook Positive: Despite Nvidia's stock hitting a record high with a 16% gain over the past month, analysts maintain a bullish stance, believing the stock, trading at under 20 times 2028 earnings estimates, is worth buying, with price targets raised from $265 to $315.
- AMD and Super Micro Price Target Increases: Mizuho raised AMD's price target from $414 to $515, citing agentic AI driving server demand, while Super Micro's target was increased to $36 due to strong AI server demand, although concerns linger about the company's ties to China.
- Qnity Electronics Strong Performance: Qnity Electronics reported better-than-expected earnings with a 17% organic sales growth driven by the AI boom, leading to a more than 3% stock increase, indicating strong market demand and future growth potential.
See More
Retail Traders Show Renewed Optimism in Tech Stocks
- Surge in Retail Trading: According to Cboe's report, retail traders are buying calls on the 'Mag 10' stocks at the highest rate since 2021, with 52% of new positions being call purchases, indicating strong investor confidence in a market rebound.
- Market Sentiment Reversal: The current call-buying metric has risen 15 points from a month ago, suggesting that investors have shifted focus from geopolitical concerns and oil prices to actively participating in the market rally.
- Options Prices Soar: The price of call contracts on the Nasdaq-100 index has reached a 52-week high, nearing a three-year record, reflecting strong demand for tech stocks and bullish investor sentiment.
- Increased Single-Stock Volatility: As traders focus more on single stocks, the ratio of Cboe's S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index to VIX has widened to the 98th percentile, indicating a significant rise in attention towards individual stocks in the market.
See More
