Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's a comprehensive analysis of BABA stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock closed at $89.14 on Friday (January 24, 2025) with a significant 3.53% gain during regular trading hours. The stock is currently showing positive momentum with RSI at 61.99, indicating moderate bullish sentiment without being overbought .

Price Levels and Support/Resistance

• Current Support: $80.92 (Fibonacci S1)
• Current Resistance: $87.90 (Fibonacci R1)
• Next Resistance: $90.05 (Fibonacci R2)

Fundamental Analysis

The stock appears significantly undervalued, trading at less than 9 times forward earnings. With $43.6 billion in net cash and $49.1 billion in equity security investments, the valuation becomes even more attractive when excluding just net cash, trading under 7 times forward P/E.

Growth Outlook

• Revenue growth expected at 6% for current fiscal year
• Earnings growth projected at 2% for current fiscal year
• FY2026 projections: 9% revenue growth and 12% earnings growth

Recent Developments

• The company's AI initiatives are showing promise, with five straight quarters of triple-digit revenue growth from AI-related products
• Alibaba's cloud segment showed 7% revenue growth with 89% EBITA growth in recent quarters
• International e-commerce platforms (AliExpress, Trendyol) demonstrated strong 29% revenue growth

Recommendation

BABA stock presents a compelling buying opportunity at current levels for the following reasons:

1. Strong technical momentum with room to run
2. Significantly undervalued compared to peers
3. Solid growth in international markets and AI initiatives
4. Substantial cash position providing downside protection

The stock appears poised for upward movement with immediate resistance at $90.05, suggesting a potential short-term target.

Based on the provided data and market analysis, here is the price prediction for BABA stock in 2025:

BABA's stock price is expected to reach $120-144 by end of 2025, representing a 35-62% upside from current price of $89.14. The bullish outlook is supported by Jefferies analyst Thomas Chong's $144 price target based on Alibaba's growing tech advancements and expected revenue growth in 2025.

The positive momentum is driven by China's improving economic indicators, with retail sales rising 3.7% year-over-year and industrial production growing 6.2% - both exceeding expectations. Additionally, China's GDP growth forecast of 4.5% in 2025 and the e-commerce sector's projected 10% annual growth through 2030 provide strong tailwinds.

The S1 support level for BABA Stock is $80.92 ,The R1 resistant level for BABA Stock is $87.9.

As of the end of day on 2025-01-24, the price of BABA Stock was $89.

The target price for BABA Stock according to analyst rating is 125.40, with the highest price target at 146.00 and the lowest at 105.00. Analysts have a Strong Buy rating on BABA Stock overall.

The market cap of BABA is $212.0B.

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here is my analysis of BABA's valuation:

Current Valuation Metrics

• P/E: 16.45 (Q4 2024)
• EV/EBITDA: 5.43 (Q4 2024)
• P/S: 1.39 (Q4 2024)
• P/B: 1.28 (Q4 2024)

Analysis: At the current price of $89.14, BABA is not overvalued based on several key factors:

1. Attractive Valuation Multiples: BABA's P/E ratio of 16.45 is relatively modest for a technology company with significant growth potential. The low EV/EBITDA of 5.43 suggests the company is undervalued relative to its operating performance.

2. Strong Market Position: Despite increased competition, BABA maintains a significant market share in China's e-commerce sector and is making substantial progress in cloud computing and AI development.

3. International Expansion: The company is showing strong growth in international markets, with its overseas e-commerce revenue growing 29% year-over-year.

4. Innovation Capabilities: BABA is rapidly advancing in AI and cloud computing, with triple-digit growth in AI-related products for five consecutive quarters.

5. Solid Financial Position: The company maintains a strong balance sheet and continues aggressive share buybacks, indicating management's confidence in the company's intrinsic value.

Therefore, considering these factors and the current market environment, BABA appears undervalued at current levels.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd provides technology infrastructure and marketing platforms. The Company operates through seven segments. China Commerce segment includes China retail commerce businesses such as Taobao, Tmall and Freshippo, among others, and wholesale business. International Commerce segment includes international retail and wholesale commerce businesses such as Lazada and AliExpress. Local Consumer Services segment includes location-based businesses such as Ele.me, Amap, Fliggy and others. Cainiao segment includes domestic and international one-stop-shop logistics services and supply chain management solutions. Cloud segment provides public and hybrid cloud services like Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk for domestic and foreign enterprises. Digital Media and Entertainment segment includes Youku, Quark and Alibaba Pictures, other content and distribution platforms and online games business. Innovation Initiatives and Others segment include Damo Academy, Tmall Genie and others.

Based on the provided data and analysis, here is a prediction for BABA's stock price in 2030:

BABA's stock price is projected to reach $144-150 by 2030, driven by three key factors: 1) The company's growing cloud business and AI developments position it well for the next wave of technology growth. 2) Analysts expect revenue and earnings growth to accelerate to 9% and 12% respectively by 2026 as the macro environment improves. 3) The company's strong e-commerce platforms and logistics capabilities in Asia provide a solid foundation for sustained growth despite potential US trade tensions.

BABA has a total of 235216 employees.