Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Sees 144.2% Growth in 2025 EPS Estimates
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 02 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Industry Trend Improvement: The mREIT sector is expected to see asset value improvement driven by declining mortgage rates following three Fed rate cuts this year, enhancing profitability for companies in the space.
- Apollo Financing Strategy: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance originated $1 billion in new loans in Q3, leveraging its strong real estate credit platform, with earnings growth anticipated to materialize in Q4 2025.
- Ellington Diversified Investments: Ellington Financial maintains low leverage and a diversified portfolio with dynamic hedging strategies, projecting a 25.3% growth in 2025 EPS, demonstrating resilience amid market volatility.
- NexPoint Market Outlook: NexPoint focuses on multi-family and single-family rental markets, with a 1.7% growth in 2025 EPS estimates, reflecting optimism about long-term housing demand trends.
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Analyst Views on ARI
Wall Street analysts forecast ARI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARI is 10.56 USD with a low forecast of 9.50 USD and a high forecast of 11.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 10.680
Low
9.50
Averages
10.56
High
11.00
Current: 10.680
Low
9.50
Averages
10.56
High
11.00
About ARI
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company primarily originates, acquires, invests in and manages performing commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. Its principal business objective is to acquire its target assets in order to provide attractive risk- adjusted returns to its stockholders over the long term, primarily through dividends and secondarily through capital appreciation. Its investment strategy is to identify opportunities within its target assets through its manager and its affiliates as well as their platform, which integrates real estate experience with private equity and capital markets in transaction sourcing, underwriting, execution, asset operation, management and disposition. It targets assets that are secured by real estate throughout the United States and Europe. The Company is externally managed and advised by ACREFI Management, LLC.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Announces 2025 Distribution Tax Treatment
- Distribution Tax Classification: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance anticipates a $0.25 per share distribution for its common stock in 2025, which may qualify for a 20% deduction under Section 199A, demonstrating the company's commitment to shareholder returns.
- Preferred Stock Dividend Details: The company’s 7.25% Series B-1 preferred stock will also yield a $0.453125 per share distribution, ensuring stable returns for preferred shareholders and reflecting robust capital management strategies.
- Cash Distribution Treatment: The cash distribution on January 15, 2026, will be treated as a 2025 distribution, indicating transparency in tax handling and helping to bolster investor confidence in the company's financial practices.
- Investor Consultation Recommendation: The company encourages shareholders to consult tax advisors regarding their specific tax treatment, highlighting its commitment to shareholder interests and aiming to enhance understanding and trust in its distribution policies.
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Sells $9B Loan Portfolio to Athene Holding
- Loan Portfolio Sale: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) announced the sale of a ~$9 billion commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene Holding, with the purchase price based on 99.7% of total loan commitments, indicating strong market positioning.
- Stock Price Surge: Following the announcement, ARI's shares rose 4.35% in pre-market trading to $10.56, reflecting positive market sentiment and increased investor confidence in the company's prospects.
- Cash Flow Expectations: Post-transaction, ARI anticipates having ~$1.4 billion in net cash and ~$1.7 billion in common stockholders' equity, providing ample funding for future investments and strategic acquisitions.
- Strategic Evaluation Plan: ARI plans to spend the remainder of the year evaluating a range of commercial real estate-related strategies, including strategic M&A opportunities, aiming to enhance current yield and position its shares to trade at or above book value.
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