ARI Should I Buy
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) is not a strong buy at this time for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. While the stock has a neutral technical setup and analysts have slightly raised price targets, the company's recent financial performance shows significant declines in revenue, net income, and EPS. Additionally, there are no strong positive catalysts or trading signals to justify immediate entry.
The stock's technical indicators are mixed. The MACD is negative and expanding, signaling bearish momentum. RSI is neutral at 40.719, and moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). Key support and resistance levels are close to the current price, with the pivot at 10.668, suggesting limited short-term movement.
Analysts have raised price targets recently, with Keefe Bruyette increasing the target to $11.50 and JPMorgan to $12, maintaining positive ratings.
The company's financial performance in Q4 2025 showed significant declines: revenue dropped by 29.85% YoY, net income by 30.64% YoY, and EPS by 33.33% YoY. Gross margin also declined by 5.65%. There are no recent news events or significant trading trends from hedge funds or insiders.
In Q4 2025, revenue dropped to $186.9 million (-29.85% YoY), net income fell to $25.46 million (-30.64% YoY), and EPS decreased to $0.18 (-33.33% YoY). Gross margin declined to 87.22% (-5.65% YoY), indicating weaker profitability.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic. Keefe Bruyette raised the price target to $11.50 and maintains an Outperform rating. JPMorgan raised the target to $12 and keeps an Overweight rating, citing a mixed but favorable macro environment for REITs.
