Should You Buy Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy ARI now for a beginner long-term investor: today’s catalyst (sale of a ~$9B loan portfolio) materially improves liquidity and strategic flexibility, technicals have turned bullish, options positioning is supportive, and Wall Street has recently nudged price targets higher (notably JPMorgan to $12). With the stock up strongly pre-market, the setup favors continued re-rating as investors digest the strengthened balance sheet and potential reinvestment/M&A path.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish and improving. Moving averages are stacked bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting momentum has shifted upward across short-to-long timeframes. MACD histogram is positive (0.0149) and expanding, confirming strengthening upside momentum. RSI(6) at ~60.6 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought), leaving room for further upside. Key levels: Pivot ~10.01; near resistance at R1 ~10.14 and R2 ~10.23 (price is trading above these pre-market at ~10.8, so prior resistance may become support). Nearby supports from prior structure sit around ~10.14/10.01, then ~9.87 (S1). Pattern-based projection is modestly negative over 1 day/week but positive over 1 month, which fits a long-term-biased entry despite potential near-term chop after the gap up.
