ARI Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how ARI performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, ARI sees a +1.32% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.18% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.01%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
ARI Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
18.60M
-92.33%
-91.36%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
-102.53%
-217.74%
-233.76%
Net Margin
-492.20%
-2689.16%
-3061.49%
EPS
-0.69
-330.00%
-400.00%
No Data Available
ARI Earnings Analysis
APOLLO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE, INC. Corporation (ARI.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Loan Repayment Surge: 1. Strong Loan Repayments: ARI received $953 million in loan repayments during Q3, exceeding the total repayments from the first two quarters combined by over $190 million.
New Loan Commitments Growth: 2. Robust New Loan Commitments: The company committed to over $1.1 billion in new vintage loans over the past nine months, demonstrating strong capital deployment in a favorable lending environment.
Portfolio Valuation and Yield: 3. Significant Portfolio Value: ARI's portfolio at quarter-end was valued at $7.8 billion, with a weighted average yield of 8.5%, indicating strong returns on investments.
Strong Liquidity Resources: 4. Healthy Liquidity Position: The company ended the quarter with over $300 million in total liquidity, which includes cash on hand and undrawn credit capacity, ensuring ample resources for future investments.
Sales Proceeds Impact: 5. Positive Sales Momentum: At 111 West 57th Street, ARI expects net proceeds of approximately $55 million from four additional units under contract, which will significantly reduce the outstanding balance on the senior loan.
Negative
Net Loss Reported: 1. Significant Net Loss: ARI reported a GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders of $95 million, equating to a negative $0.69 per diluted share, primarily due to a $128 million realized loss from a loan resolution.
CECL Allowance Overview: 2. High CECL Allowance: The total CECL allowance stood at $381 million, representing $2.74 per share of book value, indicating a substantial reserve against potential credit losses.
Loan Risk Downgrade: 3. Loan Downgrade: A €200 million loan secured by a portfolio of office assets in Germany was downgraded to a risk rating of 4, reflecting concerns over slower-than-expected leasing activity.
Eminent Domain Legal Battle: 4. Eminent Domain Challenge: The largest hospital in a portfolio was taken by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts through eminent domain, with ARI facing potential losses depending on the outcome of legal challenges regarding the valuation.
Dividend Cut Announcement: 5. Dividend Reduction: The board set the Q3 dividend at $0.25 per share, reflecting the impact of operating earnings from remaining watch-list loans and anticipated declines in floating interest rate benchmarks.
ARI FAQs
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ARI Earning Call Sentiment
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
ARI.N
1.78%Positive
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there are positives such as strong loan repayments, stable liquidity, and optimistic Q&A insights on asset recovery, there are significant negatives including a GAAP net loss due to a major loan resolution and concerns over specific assets. The Q&A session did not reveal any severe negative trends but highlighted areas requiring attention. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a neutral prediction for the stock price movement over the next two weeks.