ARI

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc

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Advanced Chart

9.790

+0.200(+2.090%)

Overview
Forecast
Valuation

Line

Candle

YTD

High

9.830

Open

9.790

VWAP

9.77

Vol

371.72K

Mkt Cap

1.33B

Low

9.700

Amount

3.63M

EV/EBITDA(TTM)

17.18

Total Shares

142.16M

7.98B

EV/OCF(TTM)

42.74

P/S(TTM)

2.03

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company primarily originates, acquires, invests in and manages performing commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The Company’s principal business objective is to acquire its target assets in order to provide attractive risk-adjusted returns to its stockholders over the long term, primarily through dividends and secondarily through capital appreciation. Its investment strategy is to identify opportunities within its target assets through its manager and its affiliates as well as their platform, which integrates real estate experience with private equity and capital markets in transaction sourcing, underwriting, execution, asset operation, management and disposition. Its target assets are secured by real estate throughout the United States and Europe. The Company is externally managed and advised by ACREFI Management, LLC.

Market Estimates

Earnings Estimates

Revenue

YoY Chg

EPS

YoYChg

FY2025Q4

FY2025Q3

FY2025Q2

49.80M

+14.47%

0.076

-113.16%

49.55M

+5.33%

0.199

-35.79%

48.40M

-6.49%

0.246

-29.7%

Estimates Revision

The market is revising Upward the revenue expectations for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) for FY2025, with the revenue forecasts being adjusted by 4.44% over the past three months. During the same period, the stock price has changed by 1.31%.

Revenue Estimates for FY2025

Revise Upward

+4.44%

In Past 3 Month

EPS Estimates for FY2025

Revise Downward

-19.75%

In Past 3 Month

Stock Price

Go Up

+1.31%

In Past 3 Month

6 Analyst Rating

0.10% Upside

Wall Street analysts forecast ARI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARI is 9.80 USD with a low forecast of 9.00 USD and a high forecast of 11.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

3 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

0.10% Upside

Current: 9.790

Low

9.00

Averages

9.80

High

11.00

0.10% Upside

Current: 9.790

Low

9.00

Averages

9.80

High

11.00

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Jade Rahmani

Buy

Maintains

$10 → $11

2025-04-29

Reason

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Jade Rahmani

Price Target

$10 → $11

2025-04-29

Maintains

Buy

Reason

Keefe Bruyette analyst Jade Rahmani raised the firm's price target on Apollo Commercial to $10.50 from $10 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

JMP Securities

Steven DeLaney

Hold

Reiterates

n/a

2025-04-29

Reason

JMP Securities

Steven DeLaney

Price Target

n/a

2025-04-29

Reiterates

Hold

Reason

JP Morgan

Richard Shane

Hold

Maintains

$8 → $9

2025-04-28

Reason

JP Morgan

Richard Shane

Price Target

$8 → $9

2025-04-28

Maintains

Hold

Reason

JP Morgan

Richard Shane

Hold

Maintains

$9.5 → $8

2025-04-16

Reason

JP Morgan

Richard Shane

Price Target

$9.5 → $8

2025-04-16

Maintains

Hold

Reason

JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Apollo Commercial to $8 from $9.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q1 preview for the mortgage real estate investment trusts. Lower short-term rates provide incremental credit relief for borrowers in the form of lower financing costs, but may signal an elevated risk of recession, which could pressure occupancy and rent growth rates and make final resolution of troubled assets more difficult, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says elevated macro uncertainty and a more "two sided risk/reward outlook tempers" its conviction on the MREITs.

UBS

Douglas Harter

Hold

Maintains

$10 → $9

2025-04-16

Reason

UBS

Douglas Harter

Price Target

$10 → $9

2025-04-16

Maintains

Hold

Reason

UBS lowered the firm's price target on Apollo Commercial to $9 from $10 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Recent macro uncertainty has led the firm to lower price targets for commercial mortgage REITs by 17% on average as it contends that the uncertainty is likely to delay the sector's recovery.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Jade Rahmani

Hold

Buy

Upgrades

$10

2025-04-07

Reason

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Jade Rahmani

Price Target

$10

2025-04-07

Upgrades

Hold

Buy

Reason

Keefe Bruyette upgraded Apollo Commercial to Outperform from Market Perform with an unchanged price target of $10. Some commercial mortgage real estate investment trusts are positioned to benefit from stronger loan originations and credit resolutions in 2025, while others remain weighed down by ongoing credit and liquidity challenges, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects further pressure in life science and transitional multifamily. Rising macro uncertainty "adds a new layer of risk, potentially exposing stress in sectors that have not experienced losses," contends Keefe. It upgraded Apollo Commercial as part of a Q1 earnings preview.

See All Ratings

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI.N) is 12.94, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of 9.23. For a more detailed relative valuation and DCF analysis to assess Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc 's fair value, click here.

Forward PE

The forward P/E ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future earnings per share over the next 12 months.

Strongly Overvalued

5Y Average PE

9.23

Current PE

12.94

Overvalued PE

10.80

Undervalued PE

7.66

Forward EV/EBITDA

The forward EV/EBITDA ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's enterprise value (EV) by its estimated future earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) over the next 12 months.

N/A

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

0.00

Current EV/EBITDA

0.00

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

0.00

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

0.00

Forward PS

The forward P/S ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future sales (or revenue) per share over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average PS

6.45

Current PS

6.59

Overvalued PS

7.61

Undervalued PS

5.29