Altria Faces Bleak Future as Cigarette Volume Declines 36% Over Five Years
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 05 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Market Share Status: Altria holds a 40% market share in the U.S. cigarette market, with nearly 60% in the premium segment, but projected volume could decline to 41.5 billion over the next five years, indicating heightened competitive risks.
- Deteriorating Volume Trends: Cigarette volume was 101.4 billion in 2020, expected to drop to 68.6 billion by 2024, with an average annual decline of 10.2%, which will negatively impact the company's revenue and market position.
- Revenue Changes: While revenue was $26.2 billion in 2020, projections suggest it could fall to $22.6 billion by 2025, indicating that price increases are insufficient to offset declining volumes, leading to stagnant revenue growth.
- Shareholder Return Risks: Despite maintaining a high dividend yield of 7.4%, the ongoing deterioration of fundamentals suggests conservative investors should be cautious, as the next five years may pose greater risks.
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Analyst Views on MO
Wall Street analysts forecast MO stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 72.370
Low
57.00
Averages
65.00
High
72.00
Current: 72.370
Low
57.00
Averages
65.00
High
72.00
About MO
Altria Group, Inc. operates a portfolio of tobacco products for United States tobacco consumers aged 21+. Its segments include smokeable products and oral tobacco products. The smokeable products segment consists of combustible cigarettes and machine-made large cigars. The oral tobacco products segment includes moist smokeless tobacco (MST) products and oral nicotine pouches. Its wholly owned subsidiaries include manufacturers of both combustible and smoke-free products. In combustibles, it owns Philip Morris USA Inc. (PM USA), and John Middleton Co. (Middleton), which are cigarette manufacturers. Its smoke-free portfolio includes ownership of U.S. Smokeless Tobacco Company LLC (USSTC), a global MST manufacturer, Helix Innovations LLC (Helix), a manufacturer of oral nicotine pouches, and NJOY, LLC (NJOY), an e-vapor manufacturer with a commercialized product portfolio. The brand portfolios of its operating companies include Marlboro, Black & Mild, Copenhagen, Skoal, on! and NJOY.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Stock Price Surge Reasons: Despite uncertainties regarding long-term growth, Altria's stock has performed well this year, driven by its low valuation (trading at about 13 times projected future earnings) and a 5.7% dividend yield, which has attracted some investor interest.
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- Modest Oral Tobacco Growth: The company's oral tobacco products have seen only a 7% increase over five years, rising from $626 million in Q1 2021 to $669 million, which remains a small fraction of overall revenue and fails to significantly enhance company performance.
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- Uncertain Future Outlook: Given serious concerns about the company's long-term growth prospects, analysts suggest that despite recent stock performance, investors should approach Altria's stock with caution to avoid potential risks.
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- Market Environment Impact: With the S&P 500 trading near all-time highs, investor reluctance to buy stocks may increase, yet the appeal of high dividend stocks could rise significantly if the market pulls back, positioning Altria and Realty Income as attractive defensive investment options for income-seeking investors.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: In the current market context, investors should consider allocating $500 or more into Altria and Realty Income, as both stocks not only provide dividends exceeding the 10-year Treasury yield but also exhibit strong growth potential in their respective sectors, making them suitable for conservative investors seeking passive income.
See More
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- Walmart's Resilience: As the world's largest retailer with over 10,800 stores, Walmart has raised its dividend for 53 consecutive years, and despite a current yield of 0.8%, its stock has soared 155% over the past five years, demonstrating its resilience and long-term investment value amid economic fluctuations.
- Stability of Realty Income: Realty Income owns over 15,500 commercial properties leased to recession-resistant businesses, achieving a 98.9% occupancy rate in 2025, and has raised its dividend 134 times since its IPO, currently offering a 5.2% yield, showcasing its appeal and stable cash flow as a REIT.
- Philip Morris's Transformation: As one of the largest tobacco companies, Philip Morris saw a 14% growth in smoke-free revenue in 2025, accounting for 43% of total revenue, with projected CAGR of 7% and 10% for revenue and EPS respectively over the next three years, indicating its potential in the tobacco industry's transformation.
- Investment Opportunities in Market Crashes: In the event of a market crash, Walmart, Realty Income, and Philip Morris stocks may present more attractive valuations, allowing investors to capitalize on these opportunities to increase their holdings and potentially achieve higher returns during economic recovery.
See More
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- Costco's Competitive Edge: Costco (COST) leverages its membership warehouse model to attract high-income consumers, achieving significant sales growth and shareholder returns with a market cap of approximately $456 billion and a dividend yield of 0.52%, despite fierce competition.
- Philip Morris's Transformation: While cigarette use declines, Philip Morris (PM) has successfully transitioned to a leader in alternative nicotine products, with a market cap of $295 billion and a dividend yield of 3.05%, as alternative product sales accounted for 41.5% of total net sales in 2025, showcasing strong future growth potential.
- Coca-Cola's Brand Power: Coca-Cola (KO), with a market cap of $351 billion and a dividend yield of 2.53%, continues to achieve organic growth through its vast distribution network and diverse beverage portfolio, with a legendary record of 64 consecutive years of dividend increases, making it a safe choice for investors.
- Stability in Consumer Goods: These three companies demonstrate strong market positions and stable dividend-paying capabilities in the consumer goods sector, reflecting the importance of consumer spending in the U.S. economy, and long-term holding is likely to yield substantial returns for investors.
See More
Altria Surprises with Strong Quarterly Growth
- Sales Growth Highlight: Altria's recent quarterly sales increased by 5% year-over-year to $4.1 billion, marking the best growth rate the company has achieved in years, despite a 16% decline from nearly $4.9 billion five years ago, indicating a slight recovery in a shrinking tobacco market.
- Oral Tobacco Product Performance: The net revenue from oral tobacco products grew from $626 million in Q1 2021 to $669 million, reflecting a modest increase of under 7%, which underscores the challenges the company faces during its transition, as this segment still represents a small fraction of overall business.
- Stock Price Surge Reasons: Despite uncertainties regarding long-term growth, Altria's stock has performed well this year, driven by its low valuation (trading at about 13 times projected future earnings) and a 5.7% dividend yield, which has attracted some investor interest.
- Cautious Future Outlook: While the stock price is currently rising, analysts express caution regarding Altria's long-term prospects, suggesting that if the company fails to achieve sustained growth, there may be risks of dividend cuts, advising investors to remain vigilant when considering investments.
See More
Altria Faces Growth Challenges Amid Declining Tobacco Sales
- Sales Growth Weakness: Altria's recent sales report showed a 5% year-over-year increase to $4.1 billion; however, this is against a backdrop of a 16% decline from five years ago, indicating ongoing struggles in the tobacco market.
- Modest Oral Tobacco Growth: The company's oral tobacco products have seen only a 7% increase over five years, rising from $626 million in Q1 2021 to $669 million, which remains a small fraction of overall revenue and fails to significantly enhance company performance.
- Stock Price Concerns: Despite Altria's stock rising this year and outperforming the market, its low valuation and 5.7% dividend yield do not justify long-term investment, as deteriorating performance could pressure the dividend payout.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Given serious concerns about the company's long-term growth prospects, analysts suggest that despite recent stock performance, investors should approach Altria's stock with caution to avoid potential risks.
See More
Three Potential Dividend Royalty Stocks to Consider
- Mastercard's Dividend Growth: Mastercard has achieved 14 consecutive years of dividend growth, with quarterly dividends rising from less than $0.01 in 2006 to $0.87 today, and an average annual growth rate of 10% to 15%, indicating significant future dividend potential that could yield substantial returns for long-term investors.
- Microsoft's Dividend Potential: Microsoft has maintained 24 years of dividend growth, currently boasting a dividend yield of 0.9%, and if its annual growth rate remains above 10%, future dividends could greatly enhance overall returns, especially as AI growth slows, allowing ample cash flow for dividend distribution.
- Philip Morris's Transformation: Philip Morris International has achieved 18 years of consecutive dividend growth, with a current yield of 3.1%, and its smokeless products generated $16.9 billion in net revenue last year, accounting for 41.5% of total sales, showcasing its successful transition to smokeless alternatives and potential to become a Dividend King.
- Market Performance and Strategic Significance: These three companies demonstrate strong market performance in their respective sectors, with Mastercard and Microsoft's dividend growth potential and Philip Morris's successful transformation indicating their strategic significance for future dividend payments and investment returns.
See More
Investors Should Focus on High Dividend Stocks
- Altria's Dividend Appeal: As the largest tobacco company in the U.S., Altria offers a forward dividend yield of 5.8% and has raised its dividend 60 times over the past 57 years, establishing itself as a 'Dividend King'; despite declining adult smoking rates, it has offset revenue pressures through price increases and share buybacks, with expectations of generating $5 billion in smoke-free revenue by 2028, driving a projected 13% CAGR in EPS.
- Realty Income's Stability: Realty Income owns over 15,500 commercial properties leased to recession-resistant businesses, currently boasting a forward dividend yield of 5.2% and having raised its dividend 134 times since its 1994 IPO; despite challenges from high interest rates, its occupancy rate remains robust at 98.9%, demonstrating strong market adaptability.
- Market Environment Impact: With the S&P 500 trading near all-time highs, investor reluctance to buy stocks may increase, yet the appeal of high dividend stocks could rise significantly if the market pulls back, positioning Altria and Realty Income as attractive defensive investment options for income-seeking investors.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: In the current market context, investors should consider allocating $500 or more into Altria and Realty Income, as both stocks not only provide dividends exceeding the 10-year Treasury yield but also exhibit strong growth potential in their respective sectors, making them suitable for conservative investors seeking passive income.
See More
