Alibaba Stock Recovery and Earnings Outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 8 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy BABA?
Source: Fool
- Stock Recovery: Alibaba's stock has surged approximately 45% over the past year, primarily due to Jack Ma's return and easing geopolitical concerns, although most gains occurred between late August and early October, indicating market anticipation for upcoming earnings.
- Earnings Expectations: Alibaba is set to announce its earnings for the December quarter of 2025 around February 19, presenting investors with a tough decision on whether to buy shares before the report, especially given the company's history of missing earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters.
- Revenue Growth and Challenges: In the first half of fiscal 2025, Alibaba's cloud revenue rose by 30% year-over-year, while its e-commerce segments grew by 12% and 14%, respectively; however, a 27% decline in its smaller business revenue resulted in only a 3% overall revenue increase to nearly $70 billion, highlighting uneven growth.
- Valuation Comparison: With a P/E ratio of 22, Alibaba trades below Amazon's 28 and Southeast Asian peer Sea Limited's 47, although its current valuation appears less attractive compared to last summer's 12, prompting investors to carefully weigh the risks of buying before earnings.
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Analyst Views on BABA
Wall Street analysts forecast BABA stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 158.730
Low
172.00
Averages
203.66
High
230.00
Current: 158.730
Low
172.00
Averages
203.66
High
230.00
About BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is an investment holding company mainly engaged in the provision of technology infrastructure and marketing platforms. The Company operates its business through nine segments. The China Commerce Retail segment is engaged in the China commerce retail business. The China Commerce Wholesale segment is mainly engaged in the operation of 1688.com. The Cloud Intelligence segment provides cloud services. The International Commerce Retail segment provides customer management services, sales of goods and logistics services. The International Commerce Wholesale segment is mainly engaged in the operation of Alibaba.com. The Cainiao Represents Logistics Services segment provides fulfilment services. The Local Services segment’s revenue includes platform commissions, logistics services revenue. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment engages in the operation of Youku and Alibaba. The All Others segment is mainly engaged in the Sun Art, Freshippo and other business.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Alibaba's RynnBrain: Alibaba's newly launched RynnBrain model is designed for 'physical AI', enabling robots to understand their environment and identify objects, showcasing its competitive edge in robotics against Nvidia and Google.
- ByteDance's Seedance 2.0: The Seedance 2.0 model can generate realistic videos from user text prompts, demonstrating significant advancements in controllability, speed, and production efficiency, although it faces challenges due to issues with voice generation.
- Kuaishou's Kling 3.0: Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 video generation model features major upgrades in consistency and photorealistic output, with video durations of up to 15 seconds and native audio generation, likely boosting user growth and market share.
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- ByteDance's Seedance 2.0: ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 can generate realistic videos from user text prompts, and despite facing issues with its voice generation feature, its significant improvements in controllability and production efficiency mark a major advancement in video generation technology.
- Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 Release: Kuaishou launched Kling 3.0, featuring major upgrades in consistency, photorealistic output, and multilingual audio generation, which has contributed to a more than 50% rise in its stock price over the past year, despite being available only to paying subscribers for now.
- Other AI Model Developments: Zhipu AI and MiniMax introduced GLM-5 and M2.5 models respectively, with the former approaching Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 in coding capabilities and the latter enhancing AI agent tools, showcasing the rapid development and competitiveness of China's AI sector.
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Alibaba Stock Recovery and Earnings Outlook
- Stock Recovery: Alibaba's stock has surged approximately 45% over the past year, primarily due to Jack Ma's return and easing geopolitical concerns, although most gains occurred between late August and early October, indicating market anticipation for upcoming earnings.
- Earnings Expectations: Alibaba is set to announce its earnings for the December quarter of 2025 around February 19, presenting investors with a tough decision on whether to buy shares before the report, especially given the company's history of missing earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters.
- Revenue Growth and Challenges: In the first half of fiscal 2025, Alibaba's cloud revenue rose by 30% year-over-year, while its e-commerce segments grew by 12% and 14%, respectively; however, a 27% decline in its smaller business revenue resulted in only a 3% overall revenue increase to nearly $70 billion, highlighting uneven growth.
- Valuation Comparison: With a P/E ratio of 22, Alibaba trades below Amazon's 28 and Southeast Asian peer Sea Limited's 47, although its current valuation appears less attractive compared to last summer's 12, prompting investors to carefully weigh the risks of buying before earnings.
See More
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- Weak Revenue Growth: In the first half of fiscal 2025 (ended September 30), Alibaba's cloud revenue rose by 30% year-over-year, while its e-commerce segments grew by 12% and 14%, respectively; however, a 27% decline in smaller business revenue resulted in only a 3% overall revenue increase to nearly $70 billion, highlighting structural vulnerabilities.
- P/E Ratio Comparison: Alibaba's P/E ratio stands at 22, significantly lower than Amazon's 28 and Southeast Asian peer Sea Limited's 47; although this is an increase from last summer's 12, the stock's attractiveness has diminished in the current market context.
- Investor Confidence Fluctuations: While Jack Ma's return has bolstered investor confidence, Alibaba has missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, and the upcoming earnings report could impact stock performance, necessitating caution among investors.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Despite easing geopolitical risks, Alibaba faces a challenging competitive landscape, and given Amazon's stability, investors may prefer to consider other more attractive investment options.
See More
Alibaba Stock Recovery and Earnings Outlook
- Stock Recovery: Alibaba's stock has surged approximately 45% over the past year, with most gains occurring between August and October last year, indicating a gradual restoration of market confidence, particularly following Jack Ma's return.
- Earnings Expectations: As Alibaba prepares to announce its earnings for the December quarter of 2025 around February 19, investors face a dilemma on whether to buy shares before the report, especially given three earnings misses in the past year that could impact stock performance.
- Revenue Growth: In the first half of fiscal 2025 (ending September 30), Alibaba's cloud revenue rose by 30% year-over-year, while its e-commerce segments grew by 12% and 14%, respectively; however, overall revenue only increased by 3% to nearly $70 billion, highlighting a divergence in business growth.
- Valuation Comparison: With a P/E ratio of 22, Alibaba trades below Amazon's 28 and Southeast Asian peer Sea Limited's 47, although this is an increase from last summer's 12, suggesting that investors may prefer more stable competitors in the current market environment.
See More
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- Alibaba's RynnBrain: Alibaba's newly launched RynnBrain model is designed for 'physical AI', enabling robots to understand their environment and identify objects, showcasing its competitive edge in robotics against Nvidia and Google.
- ByteDance's Seedance 2.0: The Seedance 2.0 model can generate realistic videos from user text prompts, demonstrating significant advancements in controllability, speed, and production efficiency, although it faces challenges due to issues with voice generation.
- Kuaishou's Kling 3.0: Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 video generation model features major upgrades in consistency and photorealistic output, with video durations of up to 15 seconds and native audio generation, likely boosting user growth and market share.
- Other AI Model Releases: Zhipu AI and MiniMax launched the GLM-5 and M2.5 models with enhanced coding capabilities, respectively, leading to a significant stock price increase for MiniMax, reflecting strong market interest in new technologies.
See More
Alibaba and Chinese Tech Giants Unveil New AI Models
- Alibaba's Model Launch: Alibaba's DAMO Academy unveiled RynnBrain, an AI model designed to help robots understand the physical world, which enhances its competitiveness in robotics through built-in time and space awareness, making robots more reliable in complex environments.
- ByteDance's Seedance 2.0: ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 can generate realistic videos from user text prompts, and despite facing issues with its voice generation feature, its significant improvements in controllability and production efficiency mark a major advancement in video generation technology.
- Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 Release: Kuaishou launched Kling 3.0, featuring major upgrades in consistency, photorealistic output, and multilingual audio generation, which has contributed to a more than 50% rise in its stock price over the past year, despite being available only to paying subscribers for now.
- Other AI Model Developments: Zhipu AI and MiniMax introduced GLM-5 and M2.5 models respectively, with the former approaching Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 in coding capabilities and the latter enhancing AI agent tools, showcasing the rapid development and competitiveness of China's AI sector.
See More
Alibaba and BYD Added to Military List Amid Tensions
- Escalating US-China Tensions: The addition of Alibaba and BYD to the 'Chinese Military Companies' list is likely to escalate trade tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, potentially impacting future economic cooperation and policy directions between the two nations.
- Reputational Risks: While being placed on the list does not carry immediate legal consequences, it poses reputational risks for the companies, which could lead to future punitive measures from the US, affecting investor confidence and market performance.
- National Security Concerns: US intelligence agencies expressed concerns about Alibaba's potential national security threat, leading to its designation three months ago, reflecting increased scrutiny on Chinese tech firms that may impact their international operations.
- BYD's Legal Battle: BYD's advancements in battery technology have solidified its position in the EV market, while the company has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, demonstrating its resistance in a challenging policy environment.
See More
Alibaba Stock Recovery and Earnings Outlook
- Stock Recovery: Alibaba's stock has surged approximately 45% over the past year, primarily due to Jack Ma's return and easing geopolitical concerns, although most gains occurred between late August and early October, indicating market anticipation for upcoming earnings.
- Earnings Expectations: Alibaba is set to announce its earnings for the December quarter of 2025 around February 19, presenting investors with a tough decision on whether to buy shares before the report, especially given the company's history of missing earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters.
- Revenue Growth and Challenges: In the first half of fiscal 2025, Alibaba's cloud revenue rose by 30% year-over-year, while its e-commerce segments grew by 12% and 14%, respectively; however, a 27% decline in its smaller business revenue resulted in only a 3% overall revenue increase to nearly $70 billion, highlighting uneven growth.
- Valuation Comparison: With a P/E ratio of 22, Alibaba trades below Amazon's 28 and Southeast Asian peer Sea Limited's 47, although its current valuation appears less attractive compared to last summer's 12, prompting investors to carefully weigh the risks of buying before earnings.
See More
Alibaba Faces Complex Outlook Ahead of Earnings Report
- Weak Revenue Growth: In the first half of fiscal 2025 (ended September 30), Alibaba's cloud revenue rose by 30% year-over-year, while its e-commerce segments grew by 12% and 14%, respectively; however, a 27% decline in smaller business revenue resulted in only a 3% overall revenue increase to nearly $70 billion, highlighting structural vulnerabilities.
- P/E Ratio Comparison: Alibaba's P/E ratio stands at 22, significantly lower than Amazon's 28 and Southeast Asian peer Sea Limited's 47; although this is an increase from last summer's 12, the stock's attractiveness has diminished in the current market context.
- Investor Confidence Fluctuations: While Jack Ma's return has bolstered investor confidence, Alibaba has missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, and the upcoming earnings report could impact stock performance, necessitating caution among investors.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Despite easing geopolitical risks, Alibaba faces a challenging competitive landscape, and given Amazon's stability, investors may prefer to consider other more attractive investment options.
See More
Alibaba Stock Recovery and Earnings Outlook
- Stock Recovery: Alibaba's stock has surged approximately 45% over the past year, with most gains occurring between August and October last year, indicating a gradual restoration of market confidence, particularly following Jack Ma's return.
- Earnings Expectations: As Alibaba prepares to announce its earnings for the December quarter of 2025 around February 19, investors face a dilemma on whether to buy shares before the report, especially given three earnings misses in the past year that could impact stock performance.
- Revenue Growth: In the first half of fiscal 2025 (ending September 30), Alibaba's cloud revenue rose by 30% year-over-year, while its e-commerce segments grew by 12% and 14%, respectively; however, overall revenue only increased by 3% to nearly $70 billion, highlighting a divergence in business growth.
- Valuation Comparison: With a P/E ratio of 22, Alibaba trades below Amazon's 28 and Southeast Asian peer Sea Limited's 47, although this is an increase from last summer's 12, suggesting that investors may prefer more stable competitors in the current market environment.
See More
