Should You Buy Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
169.560
1 Day change
-2.69%
52 Week Range
192.670
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY now for a long-term investor (Beginner) with $50k–$100k. The chart trend is bullish (stacked moving averages) and Wall Street remains broadly positive with multiple Buy/Overweight calls and price targets mostly above the current ~$176.7. Near-term volatility risk is higher ahead of earnings (2026-02-12 pre-market) and recent quarter profitability was weak, but sentiment and positioning (hedge funds buying, bullish put/call ratios) support entering now rather than waiting.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 indicates a sustained uptrend. RSI(6)=61.69 is neutral-to-slightly-strong (not overbought). MACD histogram is positive (1.473) but contracting, suggesting upward momentum is still present but slowing. Key levels: Pivot 170.887 is the main support zone to hold; immediate resistance R1 178.305 (near current price) and then R2 182.888. With price pushing toward resistance while momentum cools, expect some chop, but the primary trend remains up unless it loses ~171 decisively.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
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Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options lean bullish: put/call ratios below 1 (0.71 OI, 0.68 volume) imply more call interest than puts. Implied volatility is elevated (30D IV 51.11; IV percentile 80.72), meaning options are pricing in larger moves (often around catalysts like earnings). Volume is active (today vs 30D avg volume 56.74; open interest vs avg 110.74), reinforcing that positioning is engaged rather than sleepy.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
China reportedly approved ByteDance/Alibaba/Tencent to purchase 400k+ Nvidia H200 AI processors (supports AI/cloud capex roadmap and demand narrative); Analysts remain mostly constructive with multiple Buy/Overweight ratings and targets typically above spot (e.g., 190–230 range); Hedge funds are buying (buying amount up ~222.92% QoQ); Upcoming earnings on 2026-02-12 could be a catalyst if cloud/AI and commerce profitability improve.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Latest reported quarter shows sharp profitability pressure (Net Income -52.12% YoY; EPS -53.12% YoY) despite revenue growth; Elevated capex and uncertain payback cited by at least one downgrade (Freedom Capital to Hold); US political/regulatory headline risk persists (e.g., Texas expanding bans on Chinese tech products for state employees); Congress trading over last 90 days shows 0 buys and 4 sells (sale amounts $0.1M–$1.5M, median ~$0.8M), which is a negative sentiment signal; Pattern-based short-horizon stats provided skew negative over 1 week/1 month.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2026/Q2. Revenue grew to ~34.62B (+4.85% YoY), and gross margin improved to 38.82 (+1.09% YoY), showing modest top-line growth and slightly better margin structure. However, profitability fell sharply: net income ~2.93B (-52.12% YoY) and EPS 0.15 (-53.12% YoY), indicating earnings pressure (consistent with higher investment/capex and competitive spend). For a long-term thesis, the key is whether cloud/AI growth translates into improved earnings power over the next few quarters.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: mixed but net-positive. Arete moved from a downgrade to Neutral (2025-12-09, PT $172) to an upgrade back to Buy (2026-01-20, PT $190). Jefferies reiterated Buy while trimming PT slightly (to $225) and still calls BABA a top pick on AI/cloud. Freedom Capital downgraded to Hold (PT $180) citing rising capex and uncertain payback. Following fiscal Q2, several major firms stayed constructive: JPMorgan Overweight (PT $230), Barclays Overweight (PT $195), Citi Buy (PT $225), Bernstein Outperform (PT $190), BofA Buy (PT $188).
Wall Street pros: accelerating cloud/AI demand, potential multi-quarter earnings recovery cycle, improving quick commerce losses.
Wall Street cons: capex intensity/ROIC debate in AI/cloud, slower retail growth vs peers, and near-term earnings volatility.
Wall Street analysts forecast BABA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BABA is 203.66 USD with a low forecast of 172 USD and a high forecast of 230 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BABA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BABA is 203.66 USD with a low forecast of 172 USD and a high forecast of 230 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 174.250
Low
172
Averages
203.66
High
230
Current: 174.250
Low
172
Averages
203.66
High
230
Arete
Neutral -> Buy
upgrade
$190
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
Reason
Arete
Price Target
$190
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
upgrade
Neutral -> Buy
Reason
Arete upgraded Alibaba to Buy from Neutral with a $190 price target.
Jefferies
Thomas Chong
Buy
downgrade
$231 -> $225
2026-01-08
Reason
Jefferies
Thomas Chong
Price Target
$231 -> $225
2026-01-08
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Jefferies analyst Thomas Chong lowered the firm's price target on Alibaba to $225 from $231 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of an earnings preview. The analyst affirms Alibaba as a top pick in 2026 given its opportunities in artificial intelligence and cloud. In the December quarter, the company should continue to make solid progress in quick commerce across different metrics, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for BABA
