AI-Driven Shopping Surge Influences Black Friday — These Tech ETFs Could Gain Advantage
AI's Role in Retail: Artificial intelligence has become a crucial intermediary in retail, significantly influencing consumer behavior during Black Friday shopping, with AI-driven traffic to retail websites increasing by over 800%.
Impact on Spending: U.S. online spending reached $11.8 billion on Black Friday, a 9.1% increase from the previous year, while e-commerce growth outpaced in-store sales, highlighting the effectiveness of AI in product discovery and deal-hunting.
ETFs Benefiting from AI: Technology-focused ETFs, such as the iShares U.S. Technology ETF and Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF, are positioned to benefit from the growing reliance on AI in retail, as they include major companies like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft.
Consumer Behavior Trends: Despite increased spending, consumers purchased fewer items per order due to higher prices and inflation concerns, indicating a cautious approach to holiday shopping, with expectations for Cyber Monday to set new records.
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- 50th Anniversary Plans: Apple Inc. is set to celebrate its 50th anniversary in 2026, with CEO Tim Cook indicating that the company is reflecting on its past and planning celebrations, which could attract more attention and enhance brand image.
- Historical Reflection and Future Focus: Cook mentioned that Apple is reviewing old photographs and products to commemorate its impact over the past 50 years, and while the company typically focuses on the future, this reflection may inspire new innovations.
- Stock Performance Analysis: Apple stock rose 11.5% in 2025 but underperformed against the S&P 500's 16.6%, with a year-to-date increase of 1.7% in 2026; despite reporting record quarterly results, investors are hoping for a more positive market reaction.
- New Product Expectations: As the 50th anniversary approaches, Apple may introduce new foldable smartphones, and combined with the celebrations, this could attract more consumer attention, further driving sales growth and solidifying market position.
- Tech Sector Retreat: U.S. stocks experienced a significant decline on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 1.57%, the Dow Jones down 1.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 down 2.04%, primarily driven by a sell-off in the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, indicating concerns over the profitability outlook in the tech sector.
- Cisco Systems Warning: Cisco Systems saw its stock plummet over 12% after forecasting that rising memory chip prices would erode profitability, raising investor concerns about future performance and potentially diminishing market confidence.
- Weak Economic Data: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 5,000 to 227,000, below the expected 223,000, while January existing home sales dropped 8.4% month-over-month to 3.91 million, marking a 16-month low, which reflects signs of economic slowdown that could impact market sentiment.
- Positive Earnings Season: Despite the overall market downturn, over 76% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q4 earnings projected to grow by 8.4%, indicating strong corporate profitability that may provide support for the market.
- Acquisition of 'Severance': Apple has acquired the rights and intellectual property of 'Severance' for approximately $70 million, aiming to make it the flagship of its original content, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the streaming market.
- Viewer Growth Potential: The show's viewership doubled from season one to season two, and if costs remain unchanged, it is projected to become profitable in season three, thereby positively impacting Apple's streaming business financially.
- Content Strategy Shift: Apple plans to reduce external content acquisitions and focus on producing high-quality in-house content, leveraging its own studio to increase content output in response to competitive pressures in the streaming market.
- Market Valuation Upside: With the launch of 'Severance' and other new content, the potential value of Apple's streaming segment may be undervalued, with prospects for attracting more users through a rich content library and live sports events.
- Stock Price Decline: Apple shares fell 5% on Thursday, marking the worst performance in months, primarily due to delays in the Siri update and scrutiny from the Federal Trade Commission, indicating market concerns about the company's short-term outlook.
- Siri Update Delay: The long-anticipated AI update for Siri, initially expected to launch within weeks, has been internally postponed to May or later, raising investor doubts about Apple's competitiveness in the AI space and potentially impacting future market share.
- Increased Regulatory Pressure: FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson has urged CEO Tim Cook to review the terms of service and curation policies of Apple News, citing allegations of promoting left-leaning news while suppressing conservative content, which could lead to stricter regulations and a crisis of public trust for the company.
- Long-Term Plans Unchanged: Despite facing short-term challenges, Apple maintains its plan to launch new features in 2026, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth; however, the negative news may affect investor sentiment in the interim.
- U.S. Market Struggles: The S&P 500 has had a shaky start this year, yet it remains up 75% over the past five years, with a current P/E ratio of 30, indicating a historically high valuation that may deter new investors.
- Tech Stocks Dominate: The recent rally has been primarily driven by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, leading to concerns about market overheating due to the lack of broader stock participation.
- International ETF Opportunity: The Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) emerges as an ideal investment choice, featuring a low expense ratio of 0.05% and holding 8,646 stocks, providing extensive exposure to overseas markets, particularly in emerging markets and Europe.
- VXUS Strong Performance: VXUS has rallied 9% year-to-date while the S&P 500 has remained flat, indicating a shift among investors towards diversifying their portfolios away from the overheated U.S. market, which could further propel VXUS's growth.
- Tech Stocks Plummet: Fears of potential disruptions from artificial intelligence led to a significant decline in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping over 2% and Apple shares falling around 5%, indicating market anxiety about the future of the tech sector.
- Dow Jones Decline: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell approximately 1.3%, or over 650 points, breaking a three-day winning streak, reflecting investor caution ahead of upcoming inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve rate decisions.
- Gold and Bitcoin Drop: Gold futures sank 3%, while Bitcoin prices also declined to around $65,000, as investors adopted a risk-off stance, highlighting concerns about the future economic outlook.
- Employment Data Impacting Policy Expectations: Despite January's job additions being double the expected amount, the strong labor market has dampened expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Fed, increasing uncertainty in the stock market.








