AI Disruption Fears Hit Private Credit Stocks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5d ago
0mins
Should l Buy BLK?
Source: CNBC
- Stock Declines: Shares of Blue Owl, TPG, Ares Management, and KKR fell by double-digit percentages on Tuesday due to fears of AI disrupting industries, highlighting the market's sensitivity to risks associated with private credit holdings.
- Software Sector Impact: Concerns over future growth and profit margins in the software sector have intensified, leading to a 20% decline in the iShares Software ETF this year, including a 5% drop on Tuesday, reflecting a significant loss of investor confidence in tech stocks.
- Rising Default Risks: UBS estimates that default rates for private credit firms in the U.S. could rise to 13% if AI triggers major disruptions, compared to just 4% for high-yield bonds, indicating the vulnerability of the private credit market.
- Concentration of Risks: With 25% to 35% of the private credit market exposed to AI disruption risks, UBS analysts emphasize that the lack of diversification in this market is concerning compared to the high-yield corporate bond market, which has only 8% exposure to technology.
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Analyst Views on BLK
Wall Street analysts forecast BLK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BLK is 1336 USD with a low forecast of 1218 USD and a high forecast of 1514 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1054.800
Low
1218
Averages
1336
High
1514
Current: 1054.800
Low
1218
Averages
1336
High
1514
About BLK
BlackRock, Inc. is an investment management company. The Company provides a range of investment management and technology services to institutional and retail clients. Its diverse platform of alpha-seeking active, private markets, index and cash management investment strategies across asset classes enables the Company to tailor investment outcomes and asset allocation solutions for clients. Its product offerings include single- and multi-asset portfolios investing in equities, fixed income, alternatives, and money market instruments. Its products are offered directly and through intermediaries in a range of vehicles, including open-end and closed-end mutual funds, iShares exchange-traded funds, separate accounts, collective investment funds and other pooled investment vehicles. It also offers technology services, including the investment and risk management technology platform, Aladdin, Aladdin Wealth, eFront, and Cachematrix, as well as advisory services and solutions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Increased Pressure on Software Sector: The introduction of new AI tools by Anthropic has triggered a sell-off in software data provider shares, intensifying uncertainty in the private credit market, particularly regarding lending risks to software companies.
- Decline in Asset Management Stocks: Ares Management fell over 12%, Blue Owl Capital dropped more than 8%, and KKR and TPG saw declines of nearly 10% and 7%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns about AI's potential impact on cash flows and default risks.
- Rising Default Risks: UBS Group has warned that in an aggressive disruption scenario, default rates in U.S. private credit could rise to 13%, significantly higher than the projected stress for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, estimated at 8% and 4%, respectively.
- Liquidity Issues Intensified: Although strains in private credit predate AI concerns, Jeffrey C. Hooke noted that existing liquidity and loan extension issues have been exacerbated by recent developments, adding new challenges to an already pressured sector.
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- Increased Pressure on Software Sector: The introduction of new AI tools by Anthropic has triggered a sell-off in software data provider shares, intensifying uncertainty in the private credit market, particularly regarding lending risks to software companies.
- Decline in Asset Management Stocks: Ares Management fell over 12%, Blue Owl Capital dropped more than 8%, and KKR and TPG saw declines of nearly 10% and 7%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns about AI's potential impact on cash flows and default risks.
- Rising Default Risks: UBS Group has warned that in an aggressive disruption scenario, default rates in U.S. private credit could rise to 13%, significantly higher than the projected stress for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, estimated at 8% and 4%, respectively.
- Liquidity Issues Intensified: Although strains in private credit predate AI concerns, Jeffrey C. Hooke noted that existing liquidity and loan extension issues have been exacerbated by recent developments, adding new challenges to an already pressured sector.
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- Expanding Customer Base: The number of customers with ARR over $100,000 grew by 12% to 2,506, while those exceeding $1 million increased by 10% to 333, reflecting UiPath's appeal and market penetration among high-value clients.
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- Expense Ratio Difference: IAU's expense ratio stands at 0.25%, significantly lower than GLD's 0.40%, which provides a cost advantage for long-term holders of IAU, thereby enhancing their investment returns.
- Assets Under Management: GLD manages $173.3 billion in assets, far exceeding IAU's $80.2 billion, indicating GLD's dominant market position, although IAU is more attractive in terms of fees.
- Historical Drawdown Comparison: Over the past five years, IAU and GLD experienced maximum drawdowns of 20.93% and 21.03% respectively, showing similar risk levels, suggesting that investors may consider other factors in their selection.
- Investor Choice Considerations: While both funds exhibit similar performance, IAU's lower expense ratio may attract more cost-conscious investors, whereas GLD's larger asset base provides it with greater market recognition.
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- Impact of ETFs on Bitcoin: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have significantly benefited Bitcoin over the past two years.
- Potential Risks: A continued decline in Bitcoin's price could lead ETFs to become detrimental rather than beneficial.
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- Stock Performance Decline: Since its debut on the NYSE in September 2021, Archer Aviation's shares have plummeted by 26%, indicating market concerns about its future prospects, which could adversely affect investor confidence and the company's ability to raise funds.
- BlackRock Increases Stake: According to a recent 13G filing, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has raised its ownership in Archer to 8.1%, which, while not indicating direct operational influence, shows sustained interest in the stock.
- Investment Attractiveness Analysis: Archer is viewed as an asymmetric investment; despite facing regulatory approval and capital management risks, partnerships with high-profile companies like Palantir and Nvidia may provide support for future growth, attracting strategic investors.
- Market Expectations and Risks: Analysts set a target price of about $12 for Archer, suggesting a potential upside of 71% from current levels, but due to the lack of actual business results, investors should approach with caution and avoid blindly following BlackRock's investment decisions.
See More
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- Bitcoin Price Drop: Bitcoin has fallen to a 52-week low, surpassing the slump during the tariff-induced market sell-off in April 2025, indicating a weakening confidence in the cryptocurrency market that may affect investor holdings.
- ETF Underperformance: The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF has also hit a 52-week low, with current net assets around $67 billion, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment towards the crypto market that could lead to capital outflows and impact its liquidity.
- Shifting Investor Preferences: As institutional acceptance of cryptocurrencies increases, ETFs have become a popular choice for holding Bitcoin, despite a higher expense ratio compared to older ETFs, attracting significant inflows and demonstrating a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin.
- Complexity of Bitcoin Ownership: Investors need to purchase approximately 1,855 shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF to equal one Bitcoin, and with a 0.25% expense ratio, shareholders will face gradual dilution, potentially affecting their return expectations.
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