Progressive Corp's stock has declined by 3.45%, hitting a 20-day low, as the broader market shows weakness with the Nasdaq-100 down 0.25% and the S&P 500 down 0.32%.
Despite the stock's decline, Progressive reported a 13% growth in net premiums written, totaling $63.7 billion for the first nine months of 2025. The company also achieved a combined ratio of 89.5% in Q3, indicating strong underwriting profitability. However, a $950 million accrual due to Florida regulations has raised concerns about potential regulatory risks in the industry.
The implications of Progressive's strong business performance suggest that the company remains resilient despite current market conditions. Investors may view this pullback as a potential buying opportunity, given the company's solid growth metrics and commitment to shareholder returns.
Wall Street analysts forecast PGR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PGR is 257.11 USD with a low forecast of 214.00 USD and a high forecast of 328.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast PGR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PGR is 257.11 USD with a low forecast of 214.00 USD and a high forecast of 328.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 208.080
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
Current: 208.080
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
HSBC
Buy
to
Hold
downgrade
$224
2026-01-16
Reason
HSBC
Price Target
$224
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Buy
to
Hold
Reason
HSBC downgraded Progressive to Hold from Buy with a $224 price target.
Barclays
Alex Scott
Equal Weight -> Overweight
upgrade
$257 -> $265
2026-01-08
Reason
Barclays
Alex Scott
Price Target
$257 -> $265
2026-01-08
upgrade
Equal Weight -> Overweight
Reason
Barclays analyst Alex Scott upgraded Progressive to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $265, up from $257. The firm upgraded the shares as part of its 2026 outlook for the North America property and casualty Insurance group. Pricing is softening across commercial and reinsurance, while personal lines look relatively better and brokers face organic growth headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays recommends staying selective. It expects Progressive's policy-in-force growth, supported by recent rate decreases, to come in above consensus expectations.
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Barclays
Alex Scott
Equal Weight -> Overweight
upgrade
$265
2026-01-08
Reason
Barclays
Alex Scott
Price Target
$265
2026-01-08
upgrade
Equal Weight -> Overweight
Reason
Barclays analyst Alex Scott upgraded Progressive to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $265 price target.
Evercore ISI
In Line -> Hold
downgrade
$250 -> $237
2026-01-07
Reason
Evercore ISI
Price Target
$250 -> $237
2026-01-07
downgrade
In Line -> Hold
Reason
Evercore ISI lowered the firm's price target on Progressive to $237 from $250 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares. With a tough cyclical backdrop, 2026 is "shaping up to be a challenging year for the P&C insurance sector," but this presents "a stock pickers market with opportunities for discerning investors," the analyst says in a year-ahead outlook note for the group.
About PGR
The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company, which has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates. The Company’s segments include Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Other indemnity. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Its special lines of products include recreational vehicles, such as motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft. Its Personal Lines products are sold through both the agency and direct channels. The Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominately for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry. Its reinsurance activity includes both transactions which are regulated and those that are non-regulated. It offers shopping tools and services, such as Name Your Price, Snapshot, and HomeQuote Explorer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
