Progressive Reports Strong Growth Amid Market Weakness
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 30 2026
0mins
Should l Buy PGR?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Progressive Corp's stock has declined by 3.45%, hitting a 20-day low, as the broader market shows weakness with the Nasdaq-100 down 0.25% and the S&P 500 down 0.32%.
Despite the stock's decline, Progressive reported a 13% growth in net premiums written, totaling $63.7 billion for the first nine months of 2025. The company also achieved a combined ratio of 89.5% in Q3, indicating strong underwriting profitability. However, a $950 million accrual due to Florida regulations has raised concerns about potential regulatory risks in the industry.
The implications of Progressive's strong business performance suggest that the company remains resilient despite current market conditions. Investors may view this pullback as a potential buying opportunity, given the company's solid growth metrics and commitment to shareholder returns.
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Analyst Views on PGR
Wall Street analysts forecast PGR stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 204.530
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
Current: 204.530
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
About PGR
The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company, which has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates. The Company’s segments include Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Other indemnity. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Its special lines of products include recreational vehicles, such as motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft. Its Personal Lines products are sold through both the agency and direct channels. The Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominately for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry. Its reinsurance activity includes both transactions which are regulated and those that are non-regulated. It offers shopping tools and services, such as Name Your Price, Snapshot, and HomeQuote Explorer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Holdings Overview: In the latest 13F filings as of December 31, 2025, Progressive Corp. (PGR) was held by 10 hedge funds, indicating sustained market interest, although these holdings do not fully reflect the funds' overall perspectives.
- Position Changes: Among these funds, 3 increased their PGR positions while 3 decreased theirs, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment that could impact future stock price volatility.
- Aggregate Holdings Growth: The total PGR shares held by hedge funds increased to 131,547,124 as of December 31, 2025, up from 130,767,833 on September 30, 2025, representing an increase of 779,291 shares or approximately 0.60%, reflecting a generally positive outlook on the stock.
- Research Value: Although 13F filings only show long positions, analyzing changes across multiple funds can reveal deeper market trends, providing investors with opportunities for further research.
See More
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- Earnings Beat: Progressive reported operating earnings per share of $18.27 for 2025, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $15.58, driven by robust personal auto policy growth, despite a 23% stock decline since April 2025, highlighting a disconnect between market sentiment and operational performance.
- Reform and Tech Tailwinds: Florida's tort reform has already reduced claims costs and litigation frequency while improving underwriting margins; Shanker argues that autonomous vehicles could enhance capital utilization and underwriting efficiency, particularly benefiting insurers with scale and data advantages.
- Optimistic Outlook: Shanker expects Progressive to exceed consensus again in Q1 2026, with a policy growth forecast of 3.5%, compared to the Street's 2.5% estimate, aligning with historical seasonality that typically favors stronger first-quarter growth.
- Price Forecast: The revised price target of $329 is based on a 19.2x price-to-earnings multiple applied to normalized 2028 EPS of $17.12, and while near-term stock volatility persists, the analyst believes Progressive is well-positioned to continue outperforming expectations due to strong execution and technology-driven efficiency gains.
See More
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- Price Adjustment: Progressive Corp has reduced its price objective to $329 from $334.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects changes in the company's market outlook and performance expectations.
See More
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- Market Valuation Analysis: The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio indicates that the current market is at a historical high, prompting caution among investors, yet there are still value stocks to consider, especially in a high-valuation environment.
- Chevron's Strong Performance: Chevron (CVX) excels in the oil and gas sector, with a low break-even cost of $30 per barrel and the acquisition of the Stabroek Block in Guyana, positioning it for robust future free cash flow generation.
- Progressive's Profitability: Despite a 30% decline in Progressive (PGR) stock over the past year, its underwriting profitability remains strong, with net premiums of $83 billion last year and a combined ratio of 87.4%, showcasing its competitive edge.
- Dividend Return Appeal: Progressive paid a special dividend of $13.50 per share in December, yielding approximately 6.5% based on its recent closing price, providing an attractive return opportunity for long-term investors.
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