Mattel's Q4 Performance Falls Short, Stock Plummets
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 11 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MAT?
Source: stocktwits
Mattel Inc's stock is down 28.30% in pre-market trading, hitting a 20-day low, following disappointing Q4 earnings results.
The company's Q4 sales rose 7% to $1.77 billion, falling short of the $1.84 billion expected by analysts, while net profit dropped 33% to $106.2 million. This performance indicates increased consumer selectivity negatively impacting overall results. Furthermore, Mattel anticipates only 3% to 6% sales growth in 2026, with adjusted earnings projected at $1.18 to $1.30 per share, contrasting sharply with last year's earnings of $1.41 per share. The stock plunged nearly 31% in after-hours trading, marking its worst performance since December 2010, raising investor concerns about the company's future outlook.
The disappointing earnings report and lowered profit forecast have led to a significant sell-off, reflecting investor anxiety about Mattel's ability to navigate current market challenges. The company has announced a $1.5 billion share buyback plan and plans to invest approximately $110 million this year to enhance its toy portfolio and digital services, but these efforts may not be enough to restore investor confidence in the short term.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy MAT?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on MAT
Wall Street analysts forecast MAT stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 16.840
Low
20.00
Averages
24.43
High
30.00
Current: 16.840
Low
20.00
Averages
24.43
High
30.00
About MAT
Mattel, Inc. is a global toy and family entertainment company. The Company's operating segments include North America and International. The North America segment markets and sells toys and consumer products in the United States and Canada. Products marketed and sold by the International segment are generally the same as those marketed and sold by the North America segment, although some are developed or adapted for particular international markets. Its franchise brands include Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, American Girl, Thomas & Friends, UNO, Masters of the Universe, Matchbox, Monster High, MEGA, and Polly Pocket, as well as other popular properties that it owns or licensed in partnership with global entertainment companies. Its offerings include toys, content, consumer products, digital and live experiences. The Company’s products are sold directly to consumers through its e-commerce platform and various third-party e-commerce channels.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Mattel Under Investigation for Possible Securities Law Violations
- Sales Decline: Mattel's Q4 2025 report revealed a 1% year-over-year drop in net sales, missing the company's prior guidance of 1%-3% growth, indicating weak market demand and management's pessimistic outlook for the future.
- Profit Warning: Adjusted operating income fell to $620 million, below the company's previous guidance of $700 million to $750 million, highlighting the negative impact of inventory management actions on profitability, which may erode investor confidence.
- Stock Price Plunge: On February 11, 2026, following the disappointing earnings report, Mattel's stock price dropped by $5.26, or 24.98%, closing at $15.90, directly affecting the asset value of investors.
- Legal Investigation Initiated: The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz have launched an investigation into Mattel for potential violations of federal securities laws, aiming to provide recourse for affected investors, further intensifying concerns about the company's governance.
See More
Stocks Remain Steady Amid Easing Inflation Rates
- Inflation Report Impact: A cooler-than-expected inflation report resulted in flat stock performance for the day.
- Treasury Yields Reaction: The report led to lower Treasury yields as investors anticipated potential rate cuts in the coming months.
See More
Mattel Stock Faces Dim Long-Term Outlook
- Phase Analysis: Mattel's stock is currently in Phase 18, the final stage of its 18-phase Adhishthana cycle, indicating a dim long-term outlook with a lack of strong upward momentum.
- Structural Weakness: From April 2013 to February 2019, during Phases 14 to 16, Mattel's stock failed to exhibit the bullish structure necessary for a Nirvana move, losing approximately 81% of its value, which highlights significant structural weakness.
- Investor Outlook: With a weak triad formation on the monthly chart, the remainder of Phase 18 is expected to continue facing consolidation and volatility, lacking sustained bullish advances, prompting investors to remain cautious.
- Misconception of Value Opportunity: The recent decline in stock price should not be viewed as a value opportunity, as the broader structural setup does not yet support a durable upside move, necessitating a wait for the current cycle to complete and reset before a more constructive outlook can emerge.
See More
Mattel CEO Boosts Holdings Amid Sales Challenges
- CEO Stock Purchase: Mattel CEO Ynon Kreizac acquired 65,000 shares at an average price of $15.5277, increasing his total holdings to 1,794,217 shares, indicating confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Sales Growth Overview: Despite missing estimates for the crucial holiday quarter, net sales rose 7% year-over-year to $1.77 billion in Q4, or 5% on a constant currency basis, reflecting resilience in market demand.
- Regional Sales Performance: Sales in North America increased by 5%, while international sales surged by 11%, demonstrating Mattel's strong performance in global markets despite competitive pressures.
- Future Outlook: Mattel projects net sales growth of 3% to 6% for 2026 and plans to invest $150 million in digital and strategic initiatives to enhance its market competitiveness.
See More
Hasbro Shares Have Potential for Further Growth
Shift in Popularity: Kids and adults are increasingly engaging with Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons, indicating a shift in play preferences.
Impact on Companies: This trend is beneficial for Hasbro, the owner of these games, while posing challenges for Mattel, which owns Barbie and Hot Wheels.
See More
US Stock Market Close and Employment Data Analysis
- Strong Employment Data: US nonfarm payrolls for January increased by 130,000, surpassing expectations of 65,000, indicating labor market stability, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1% to 4.3%, which is likely to have a positive impact on economic recovery.
- Interest Rate Expectations Shift: Following the robust employment report, the market's expectation for a Fed rate cut next month dropped from 23% to 6%, with the 10-year T-note yield rising by 3 basis points to 4.17%, reflecting a cautious outlook on future monetary policy.
- Mixed Market Performance: The S&P 500 closed unchanged, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.29%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.13%, highlighting a contrast between strong tech stock performance and weakness in software stocks.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Over 78% of the 335 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, indicating that sustained corporate profitability will support long-term stock market gains.
See More
Mattel Under Investigation for Possible Securities Law Violations
- Sales Decline: Mattel's Q4 2025 report revealed a 1% year-over-year drop in net sales, missing the company's prior guidance of 1%-3% growth, indicating weak market demand and management's pessimistic outlook for the future.
- Profit Warning: Adjusted operating income fell to $620 million, below the company's previous guidance of $700 million to $750 million, highlighting the negative impact of inventory management actions on profitability, which may erode investor confidence.
- Stock Price Plunge: On February 11, 2026, following the disappointing earnings report, Mattel's stock price dropped by $5.26, or 24.98%, closing at $15.90, directly affecting the asset value of investors.
- Legal Investigation Initiated: The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz have launched an investigation into Mattel for potential violations of federal securities laws, aiming to provide recourse for affected investors, further intensifying concerns about the company's governance.
See More
Stocks Remain Steady Amid Easing Inflation Rates
- Inflation Report Impact: A cooler-than-expected inflation report resulted in flat stock performance for the day.
- Treasury Yields Reaction: The report led to lower Treasury yields as investors anticipated potential rate cuts in the coming months.
See More
Mattel Stock Faces Dim Long-Term Outlook
- Phase Analysis: Mattel's stock is currently in Phase 18, the final stage of its 18-phase Adhishthana cycle, indicating a dim long-term outlook with a lack of strong upward momentum.
- Structural Weakness: From April 2013 to February 2019, during Phases 14 to 16, Mattel's stock failed to exhibit the bullish structure necessary for a Nirvana move, losing approximately 81% of its value, which highlights significant structural weakness.
- Investor Outlook: With a weak triad formation on the monthly chart, the remainder of Phase 18 is expected to continue facing consolidation and volatility, lacking sustained bullish advances, prompting investors to remain cautious.
- Misconception of Value Opportunity: The recent decline in stock price should not be viewed as a value opportunity, as the broader structural setup does not yet support a durable upside move, necessitating a wait for the current cycle to complete and reset before a more constructive outlook can emerge.
See More
Mattel CEO Boosts Holdings Amid Sales Challenges
- CEO Stock Purchase: Mattel CEO Ynon Kreizac acquired 65,000 shares at an average price of $15.5277, increasing his total holdings to 1,794,217 shares, indicating confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Sales Growth Overview: Despite missing estimates for the crucial holiday quarter, net sales rose 7% year-over-year to $1.77 billion in Q4, or 5% on a constant currency basis, reflecting resilience in market demand.
- Regional Sales Performance: Sales in North America increased by 5%, while international sales surged by 11%, demonstrating Mattel's strong performance in global markets despite competitive pressures.
- Future Outlook: Mattel projects net sales growth of 3% to 6% for 2026 and plans to invest $150 million in digital and strategic initiatives to enhance its market competitiveness.
See More
Hasbro Shares Have Potential for Further Growth
Shift in Popularity: Kids and adults are increasingly engaging with Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons, indicating a shift in play preferences.
Impact on Companies: This trend is beneficial for Hasbro, the owner of these games, while posing challenges for Mattel, which owns Barbie and Hot Wheels.
See More
US Stock Market Close and Employment Data Analysis
- Strong Employment Data: US nonfarm payrolls for January increased by 130,000, surpassing expectations of 65,000, indicating labor market stability, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1% to 4.3%, which is likely to have a positive impact on economic recovery.
- Interest Rate Expectations Shift: Following the robust employment report, the market's expectation for a Fed rate cut next month dropped from 23% to 6%, with the 10-year T-note yield rising by 3 basis points to 4.17%, reflecting a cautious outlook on future monetary policy.
- Mixed Market Performance: The S&P 500 closed unchanged, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.29%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.13%, highlighting a contrast between strong tech stock performance and weakness in software stocks.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Over 78% of the 335 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, indicating that sustained corporate profitability will support long-term stock market gains.
See More
