Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) has hit a 20-day low, declining by 3.01% in regular trading. This drop comes as BNP Paribas downgraded the stock from 'Neutral' to 'Underperform', citing a weak sales environment influenced by macroeconomic pressures. Despite this downgrade, Dollar Tree raised its fiscal 2025 earnings per share forecast to a range of $5.60 to $5.80, indicating confidence in future profitability. The company also updated its sales guidance, projecting net sales between $19.35 billion and $19.45 billion, reflecting an optimistic view on market demand.
The downgrade by BNP Paribas highlights concerns over rising operational costs and demand challenges, which are expected to compress margins. Analysts have noted that inflation and changes in consumer behavior are impacting Dollar Tree's long-term strategy. However, despite the stock's decline, retail sentiment on Stocktwits has shifted from 'bearish' to 'neutral', suggesting cautious optimism about the company's long-term prospects.
Overall, while Dollar Tree faces significant challenges, its raised earnings outlook and updated sales guidance may provide some reassurance to investors. The market's reaction to these developments will be crucial in determining the stock's future performance.
Wall Street analysts forecast DLTR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DLTR is 126.00 USD with a low forecast of 75.00 USD and a high forecast of 150.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DLTR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DLTR is 126.00 USD with a low forecast of 75.00 USD and a high forecast of 150.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
6 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 119.100
Low
75.00
Averages
126.00
High
150.00
Current: 119.100
Low
75.00
Averages
126.00
High
150.00
BNP Paribas
Neutral -> Underperform
downgrade
$118 -> $87
2026-01-21
Reason
BNP Paribas
Price Target
$118 -> $87
AI Analysis
2026-01-21
downgrade
Neutral -> Underperform
Reason
BNP Paribas earlier today downgraded Dollar Tree to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $87, down from $118. The firm sees a "more tepid" sales environment for the company after price increases lap and macro headwinds ramp. Dollar Tree's consumable units are falling and the benefits from its multi-price point strategy are waning, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BNP believes the company is also facing challenges from tax code changes, weight loss drug adoption, and agentic commerce. Dollar Tree in morning trading is down 2% to $130.87.
Truist
Scot Ciccarelli
Buy
maintain
$149 -> $156
2026-01-16
Reason
Truist
Scot Ciccarelli
Price Target
$149 -> $156
2026-01-16
maintain
Buy
Reason
Truist analyst Scot Ciccarelli raised the firm's price target on Dollar Tree to $156 from $149 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Hardlines/Broadlines consumer names. The firm is citing its latest Truist Card reads and ICR holiday updates in adjusting its sales and earnings estimates, though it also believes that a significant increase in tax refunds will likely boost sales across the retail space in what are typically seasonally softer months, the analyst tells investors in a research note. For the company, despite concerns over softer traffic in Q3, Dollar Tree's sales trends have continued to exceed the firm's prior expectations for Q4, the firm added.
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Deutsche Bank
Hold
maintain
$126
2026-01-08
Reason
Deutsche Bank
Price Target
$126
2026-01-08
maintain
Hold
Reason
Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of Dollar Tree with a Hold rating and $126 price target. The firm resumed coverage of the broadlines and food retailers. Deutsche expects 2026 to be another "mixed year," characterized by food disinflation, reduced government benefits, and consumers' value focus extending into the new year. The analyst says that while defensive sectors such as food retail could face a challenging setup, "there are tailwinds on the horizon," including a sizable stimulus in the first half of 2026.
Barclays
Seth Sigman
Overweight
maintain
$136 -> $149
2026-01-08
Reason
Barclays
Seth Sigman
Price Target
$136 -> $149
2026-01-08
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Barclays analyst Seth Sigman raised the firm's price target on Dollar Tree to $149 from $136 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is positive on the broadlines, hardlines and food retail sector entering 2026. It sees improvements in discretionary goods demand with potential for a "modest bump" from consumer tax savings ahead and interest rate cuts.
About DLTR
Dollar Tree, Inc. is an operator of retail discount stores operating under the brand names of Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada. The Company operates approximately 9,000 stores and 18 distribution centers across 48 contiguous states and five Canadian provinces. The Dollar Tree segment operates a discount variety of stores offering merchandise at the opening price point. The Dollar Tree segment includes its operations under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. Its Dollar Tree Canada stores carry a range of products such as kitchen and dining, cleaning supplies, food and beverages, health and beauty, toys, party supplies, stationery, craft supplies, seasonal decor, and others. It also offers customers same-day local delivery. The Company also offers Dollar Tree Gift Cards and can be purchased in stores and online and redeemed in any one of its store locations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
