Should I Buy DLTR? DLTR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

117.310

1 Day change

-1.50%

52 Week Range

142.400

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

Buy (for a long-term beginner, starting now). DLTR is technically very oversold (RSI_6 ~19.9) and trading near a deeper support zone (around 115–121), which improves the risk/reward for an impatient buyer. Fundamentals in the latest quarter (2026/Q3) still show solid growth (revenue +9.44% YoY, EPS +11.11% YoY) and news flow is mildly supportive for value retailers. The main offset is clearly bearish near-term sentiment (negative MACD expansion + put-heavy options + a fresh major downgrade). Even with those headwinds, the current oversold setup plus continued growth makes it a reasonable long-term entry right now.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish-to-stabilizing. MACD histogram is negative (-2.459) and expanding lower, which confirms downside momentum is still in force. Overbought/Oversold: RSI_6 at 19.9 is deeply oversold, often associated with exhaustion selling and higher odds of a reflex bounce. Moving Averages: Converging moving averages suggest the downtrend may be transitioning toward basing, but not yet a confirmed uptrend. Key levels: Pivot 130.518 (well above current price ~119), Resistance R1 139.799 / R2 145.533. Support S1 121.237 (already broken) and S2 115.504 (next key downside level). Price context: Regular session -2.25% with post-market slightly up (+0.25%) suggests stabilization attempts after selling. Pattern stats (provided): Similar-pattern probabilities imply slightly negative near-term drift (next day -0.3%, next week -0.38%), improving to mildly positive over a month (+0.86%). **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Bearish/defensive. Both open-interest and volume put/call ratios are >1 (puts heavier than calls), implying hedging or downside speculation. Volatility: Implied vol (30d) 52.42 vs historical vol 34.63, with IV percentile 72.8—options are pricing elevated uncertainty, consistent with the recent sharp selloff and mixed headlines. Activity: Today’s volume (3,915) is below the recent 5–10d averages (~4,715 / ~4,521), so sentiment is skewed bearish but not showing an extreme volume panic on this snapshot.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Macro/news tailwinds for value retail: News highlights discount retailers outperforming amid inflation and potential policy focus on affordability that could support low-income consumer spending (potential demand tailwind for Dollar Tree).
Company execution: Dollar Tree raised its fiscal 2025 EPS forecast (supports confidence in near-term earnings power).
Recent quarter growth: 2026/Q3 showed healthy top-line and EPS growth with gross margin expansion (suggests the model is still working despite a choppy consumer).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Technical pressure: MACD still worsening and price broke below S1 (~121), leaving S2 (~115.5) as the next meaningful support.
Options are put-heavy: Put/call ratios (OI 1.28; volume 1.45) indicate the market is positioned cautiously.
Analyst shock: BNP Paribas downgrade to Underperform with a sharply lower PT ($87 from $118) raises fear of a weaker sales environment and margin/competitive headwinds.
Competitive/macro concerns cited by bears: Potentially softer sales after price increases lap, consumables units falling, and other structural headwinds mentioned in the downgrade narrative.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q3. Growth trends: Revenue increased to $4.751B (+9.44% YoY). Net income rose to $244.6M (+4.84% YoY). EPS increased to $1.20 (+11.11% YoY). Profitability: Gross margin improved to 35.89% (+1.36% YoY). Takeaway: The business is still growing and expanding margin modestly; earnings are improving faster than revenue, which is supportive for a long-term buy case even while the stock is under near-term sentiment pressure.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Mostly positive-to-neutral revisions through Dec–mid Jan (multiple price target raises and Overweight/Buy/Outperform views), followed by a notable negative outlier on Jan 21 (BNP Paribas downgrade to Underperform with PT cut to $87). Wall Street pros: Many analysts see multi-price strategy and category/value positioning as supportive, with expectations of improved discretionary demand and/or macro tailwinds (tax refunds, potential rate cuts) lifting sales. Wall Street cons: The bear case stresses a more tepid sales environment, waning benefits from price/multi-price initiatives, falling consumables units, and rising cost/competition pressures—culminating in the BNP downgrade. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show neutral recent activity.

17 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast DLTR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DLTR is 126 USD with a low forecast of 75 USD and a high forecast of 150 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

8 Buy

6 Hold

3 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 119.100

Low

Averages

126

High

150

Current: 119.100

Low

Averages

126

High

150

BNP Paribas

Neutral -> Underperform

downgrade

$118 -> $87

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

Reason

BNP Paribas

Price Target

$118 -> $87

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

downgrade

Neutral -> Underperform

Reason

BNP Paribas earlier today downgraded Dollar Tree to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $87, down from $118. The firm sees a "more tepid" sales environment for the company after price increases lap and macro headwinds ramp. Dollar Tree's consumable units are falling and the benefits from its multi-price point strategy are waning, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BNP believes the company is also facing challenges from tax code changes, weight loss drug adoption, and agentic commerce. Dollar Tree in morning trading is down 2% to $130.87.

Truist

Scot Ciccarelli

Buy

maintain

$149 -> $156

2026-01-16

Reason

Truist

Scot Ciccarelli

Price Target

$149 -> $156

2026-01-16

maintain

Buy

Reason

Truist analyst Scot Ciccarelli raised the firm's price target on Dollar Tree to $156 from $149 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Hardlines/Broadlines consumer names. The firm is citing its latest Truist Card reads and ICR holiday updates in adjusting its sales and earnings estimates, though it also believes that a significant increase in tax refunds will likely boost sales across the retail space in what are typically seasonally softer months, the analyst tells investors in a research note. For the company, despite concerns over softer traffic in Q3, Dollar Tree's sales trends have continued to exceed the firm's prior expectations for Q4, the firm added.

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DLTR Should I Buy

DLTR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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