BTIG Upgrades Upstart to Buy Amid Private Credit Market Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 16 2026
0mins
Should l Buy UPST?
Source: CNBC
Upstart Holdings Inc. saw its stock price increase by 5.01% as it crossed above the 5-day SMA, reflecting a positive market reaction to recent analyst upgrades.
BTIG analyst Vincent Caintic upgraded Upstart from neutral to buy with a $43 price target, indicating a 63% upside. This upgrade comes despite the market's muted response to its application for a national bank charter, which Caintic believes could mitigate risks associated with private credit exposure. The analyst also projected a 60% increase in Upstart's annual earnings per share due to reduced transaction volume costs, enhancing the company's financial position.
The upgrade signals a potential turnaround for Upstart, as the national bank charter could expand its customer base and provide a consistent regulatory framework. However, the stock's previous decline of 40% due to market conditions highlights the ongoing challenges the company faces in gaining investor confidence.
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Analyst Views on UPST
Wall Street analysts forecast UPST stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 24.220
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
Current: 24.220
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
About UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace. The Company’s platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and small dollar loans. It applies artificial intelligence models and cloud applications to the process of underwriting consumer credit. Its AI marketplace connects consumers with its lending partner. Its consumers can access Upstart-powered loans via Upstart.com, through a lender-branded product on its lending partners’ own websites, and through auto dealerships that use its Upstart Auto Retail software. Its platform enables lenders provide a product their customers want, rather than letting customers seek loans from competitors. Its cloud-based software platform incorporates technologies and software development approaches to allow for development of new features, such as cloud-native technologies, data integrity and security, and configurable multi-tenant architecture, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Investor Attention: The video, published on March 30, 2026, suggests that analysts' recommendations on these stocks could influence investor decisions, potentially driving stock prices higher.
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- Market Condition Dependence: Upstart's business is highly cyclical and dependent on favorable macroeconomic conditions, leading to inconsistent revenue growth and leaving the sustainability of future profitability in question.
- High-Risk Investment: Despite appearing undervalued, Upstart is considered a high-risk investment, necessitating careful evaluation of potential market risks and returns by investors.
See More
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- Significant Interest Rate Impact: The ultra-low interest rate environment during the COVID-19 pandemic boosted Upstart's growth, but rising rates have posed severe challenges, leading to a decline in investor confidence.
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- Market Performance Analysis: As of March 13, 2026, Miami International Holdings' stock price saw a slight increase of 0.03%, indicating investor confidence in its growth prospects, which may attract more capital inflow.
- Investor Attention: The video, published on March 30, 2026, suggests that analysts' recommendations on these stocks could influence investor decisions, potentially driving stock prices higher.
- Long-Term Investment Strategy: Analysts emphasize the strategy of selecting these growth stocks for long-term investment to capitalize on their potential high returns, reflecting a deep understanding of market trends and forward-looking positioning.
See More
Surge in Options Trading Volume for Hertz and WisdomTree
- Hertz Options Volume: Hertz Global Holdings Inc (HTZ) has seen an options trading volume of 50,202 contracts today, representing approximately 5 million shares, which accounts for 83.4% of its average daily trading volume of 6 million shares over the past month, indicating strong market interest in its stock.
- High-Frequency Trading Insight: Within HTZ, the $3 strike put option expiring on June 16, 2028, has recorded a trading volume of 8,010 contracts today, equating to about 801,000 shares, suggesting an increased investor expectation for a decline in future stock prices.
- WisdomTree Options Activity: WisdomTree Inc (WT) has reported an options trading volume of 24,315 contracts today, representing approximately 2.4 million shares, which is 81.6% of its average daily trading volume of 3 million shares over the past month, reflecting sustained investor interest in its stock.
- Bullish Call Options Trend: For WT, the $15 strike call option expiring on September 18, 2026, has seen a trading volume of 12,041 contracts today, representing about 1.2 million shares, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market regarding WT's future price increase.
See More
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Company Overview: USTARTHOLDINGS INC is involved in financial services and has made a significant announcement regarding its stock price.
Target Price Adjustment: Mizuhō has reduced the target price for USTARTHOLDINGS from $66 to $51, indicating a shift in market expectations.
See More
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- Surge in Betting Expenditure: The American Gaming Association estimates that legal sports betting for this year's NCAA men's and women's basketball tournaments will reach $3.3 billion, marking a 54% increase over the past three years, indicating a rapid rise in sports betting participation, which may strain household financial stability.
- Deteriorating Credit Health: A report from the New York Federal Reserve highlights an increase in credit delinquencies in states with legalized betting, particularly among those under 40, suggesting that gambling may significantly impact young consumers' financial health and lead to higher bankruptcy risks.
- Declining Credit Scores: According to FICO, the national average credit score has dropped to 714, down two points from last year, primarily due to the resumption of student loan and mortgage delinquency reporting, reflecting an overall deterioration in consumer credit health.
- Economic Divergence: While some consumers face worsening credit conditions, FICO also notes a growing number of consumers exhibiting strong credit behaviors at both ends of the scoring spectrum, indicating a K-shaped recovery in the economy, where some borrowers are experiencing increased financial pressure.
See More
Upstart's Stock Plummets 79%, Investors Disappointed
- Stock Price Drop: Upstart's stock has plummeted 79% since March 2021, meaning a $1,000 investment would now be worth only $214, indicating significant losses and increased market volatility for investors.
- Financial Performance Volatility: While benefiting from the ultra-low interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a 64% year-over-year growth, the company has struggled with rising rates, resulting in highly unstable financial performance and questions about sustainable profitability.
- Market Condition Dependence: Upstart's business is highly cyclical and dependent on favorable macroeconomic conditions, leading to inconsistent revenue growth and leaving the sustainability of future profitability in question.
- High-Risk Investment: Despite appearing undervalued, Upstart is considered a high-risk investment, necessitating careful evaluation of potential market risks and returns by investors.
See More
Upstart's Five-Year Investment Returns Disappoint
- Stock Price Plunge: Since late March 2021, Upstart's stock has plummeted by 79%, meaning a $1,000 investment would now be worth only $214, highlighting extreme investment risk and volatility.
- Cyclical Financial Performance: Upstart's financial results are highly dependent on macroeconomic conditions; while revenue grew 64% year-over-year in 2025, the sustainability of its profitability remains a significant question mark.
- Significant Interest Rate Impact: The ultra-low interest rate environment during the COVID-19 pandemic boosted Upstart's growth, but rising rates have posed severe challenges, leading to a decline in investor confidence.
- Cautious Investment Advice: Despite appearing cheap, Upstart is considered a high-risk investment, and it was notably excluded from the analyst team's list of 10 best stocks, indicating that investors should proceed with caution.
See More
