AXP Hits 20-Day Low Amid Market Shifts
Shares of AXP.N declined sharply today, hitting a 20-day low as investors reacted to broader market trends. The stock's recent performance reflects increased bearish momentum, raising concerns among traders. This decline comes in the wake of Berkshire Hathaway's surprising $4.3 billion investment in Alphabet, which has shifted focus towards tech stocks, contrasting with Warren Buffett's traditional value investing approach. Despite Jim Cramer's positive outlook on American Express, noting its resilience in the current economy, the stock's current trajectory suggests a cautious sentiment among investors, particularly as they explore alternatives in the AI sector.
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- Share Buyback Strategy: American Express's ongoing stock buybacks have gradually increased Berkshire Hathaway's stake to 22.1%, which not only enhances its ownership in the company but also reflects confidence in future growth prospects.
- Revenue and Profit Growth: Over the past decade, American Express has seen a 120% revenue increase and a 205% rise in diluted earnings per share, demonstrating strong performance amid economic expansion, with expectations to achieve long-term growth targets of 10% and mid-teens, respectively.
- Premium Market Positioning: With luxury credit card offerings and an annual fee increase of 75%, American Express successfully attracts high-spending customers, and this pricing power contributes to sustainable financial success for the company.
- Industry Leadership: Despite a current price-to-earnings ratio of 23.3, which has expanded by 124% over the past decade, American Express continues to show strong market competitiveness driven by the rising penetration of cashless transactions, attracting cautious investor interest.
- Significant Stock Growth: As of February 9, American Express's stock price has risen 180% over the past five years, with total returns including dividends reaching 198%, highlighting its strong performance in the investment portfolio and attracting investor interest.
- Increased Berkshire Holdings: Berkshire Hathaway currently owns 22.1% of American Express, with this stake gradually increasing to 16.5% of its portfolio due to the company's ongoing stock buybacks, enhancing Berkshire's control and potential returns from this investment.
- Brand Value and Pricing Power: American Express leverages its strong brand and premium credit card offerings to raise average annual fees by 75% from 2020 to 2025, reflecting its pricing power and providing a stable revenue stream for the company.
- Sustained Growth Potential: Over the past decade, American Express's revenue has climbed 120%, with diluted earnings per share increasing by 205%, as the leadership team aims for long-term growth targets of 10% and mid-teens, indicating a favorable outlook amid economic expansion.
- American Express Earnings Analysis: American Express reported Q4 earnings of $3.53 per share, falling short of expectations and causing a more than 10% drop from its early January peak; however, its total revenue still grew 9% year-over-year, indicating resilience in its affluent customer base, with projected earnings per share of $17.30 to $17.90 in 2026, reflecting the company's optimistic outlook.
- Apple Sales Growth: Apple's fiscal Q1 iPhone sales surged 23% year-over-year to $85.3 billion, despite a slight stock decline due to market focus on AI; consumer anticipation for future AI tools is driving sales, showcasing the company's strong performance in the tech sector.
- Constellation Brands Challenges: Constellation Brands, a smaller position in Buffett's portfolio, has grown to a $2 billion stake since its initial purchase in late 2024, facing declining beer sales over the past four quarters; however, a recovering economy is expected to drive growth, with a current dividend yield of 2.5%.
- Market Sentiment Impact: Despite the stock price declines of American Express and Apple due to market pessimism, their fundamentals remain strong, suggesting that investors should focus on long-term potential rather than short-term fluctuations.
- American Express Earnings Highlights: Despite fourth-quarter earnings of $3.53 per share falling short of expectations, leading to a more than 10% drop from early January highs, the company's total revenue still grew 9% year-over-year, showcasing the resilience of its affluent cardholder base and an expected recovery in growth.
- Apple Sales Rebound: Apple's fiscal first-quarter iPhone sales surged 23% year-over-year to $85.3 billion, driven by consumer anticipation for future AI tools, despite concerns surrounding its technology sector, indicating strong market demand.
- Brewer Investment Opportunity: Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Constellation Brands began in late 2024 and grew to a $2 billion stake by mid-2025; although the company faces declining interest in alcoholic beverages, a recovery in the economy is expected to boost its business.
- Market Sentiment Impact: The stock price fluctuations of American Express and Apple reflect broader market pessimism, with analysts suggesting that this dynamic could reverse as investors reassess the companies' fundamentals, presenting potential investment opportunities.
- Political Pressure Intensifies: Amid persistent inflation, Trump and Sanders have found common ground in seeking to lower credit card annual percentage rates, with Trump proposing a 10% cap and Sanders advocating for a permanent 15% cap, potentially reshaping the profitability of credit card companies.
- Cautious Industry Response: Major credit card issuers like Capital One are in a holding pattern amidst political rhetoric, fearing that if a cap is implemented, they will be compelled to cut credit lines, adversely affecting credit access for lower-income households.
- Profitability at Risk: Analysts predict that a long-term rate cap could reduce Capital One's earnings per share by 25% or wipe them out entirely, as credit card operations account for approximately 74% of its total revenue, primarily derived from interest on customer balances.
- Acquisition Impact Significant: Capital One's $35 billion acquisition of Discover last year will be affected by any interest rate limits, as Discover's credit card balances will also be impacted, further diminishing Capital One's competitive edge, especially without a robust payment network.
Berkshire Hathaway's Filing: The company is set to release its fourth-quarter equity holdings, which will be closely examined by investors and analysts.
Warren Buffett's Leadership: This filing is particularly significant as it marks Warren Buffett's final quarter leading Berkshire Hathaway, raising interest in any strategic moves made by him and his team.








