US Stocks Reach Record Highs as Inflation Weakens: Investor Anxiety Diminishes, Greed Index Stays in 'Fear' Territory
Market Sentiment: The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a slight increase in fear, with a current reading of 33.1, indicating continued caution among investors despite a rise in U.S. stocks to all-time highs.
Inflation Data: The annual headline inflation rate for September 2025 was reported at 3%, slightly above August's 2.9% but below expectations, while core inflation fell to 3% year-over-year.
Stock Performance: Ford Motor Co. saw a significant 12% increase in its stock price after reporting strong third-quarter earnings, while Inhibrx Biosciences Inc. surged 102% following positive trial results for its cancer drug.
Earnings Reports: Investors are anticipating earnings results from companies such as Keurig Dr Pepper Inc., Nucor Corp., and Waste Management Inc. as they continue to monitor market trends.
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- Earnings Outlook: CIBC Capital Markets has released a preview of the solid waste sector's earnings for Q1 2026, expecting stable overall performance that reflects ongoing demand for waste management services in the market.
- Market Trend Insights: The report highlights that growth in the solid waste industry is primarily driven by accelerated urbanization and environmental policy initiatives, which will create new business opportunities for related companies.
- Investor Focus: CIBC advises investors to pay attention to leading firms in the waste management sector, believing these companies will hold advantageous positions in future market competition, particularly in terms of technological innovation and service optimization.
- Industry Risk Assessment: While the overall outlook is optimistic, CIBC also cautions investors to be aware of potential policy changes and market fluctuations, as these factors could impact earnings in the solid waste sector.
- RTX Defense Advantage: As the U.S. military seeks to replenish its arsenal post-Iran war, RTX, the parent company of Raytheon, is poised to benefit from increased defense spending, currently valued at $263 billion with a dividend yield of 1.39%.
- Aviation Engine Market: RTX's business in aviation engines and control systems locks in years of revenue from jet engine sales, with only 40% of estimated 2026 earnings allocated for dividends, indicating strong financial health.
- WM Waste Management Stability: WM operates the largest landfill network in the U.S., maintaining a steady business model with a 23-year history of dividend increases, currently valued at $95 billion and a dividend yield of 1.45%, showcasing robust profitability.
- Industry Growth Potential: Analysts forecast WM's annualized earnings growth of 11% to 12% over the next three to five years, making its current stock price of $235.20 and a P/E ratio of 28 times a fair value for long-term investors.
- RTX's Market Position: As a leading defense contractor, RTX is poised to benefit from the U.S. military's need to replenish its arsenal in the coming years, with only 40% of its estimated 2026 earnings allocated for dividend payments, currently yielding 1.4%, indicating strong financial health.
- WM's Competitive Advantage: WM operates the largest landfill network in the U.S., and due to its strong regulatory moat, management has raised dividends for 23 consecutive years, with a payout ratio of only 46% of its 2026 earnings estimates, allowing room for future dividend growth.
- Valuation Analysis: RTX shares currently trade at over 27 times 2026 earnings estimates, while WM trades at 28 times, and although both stocks are not cheap, analysts project annualized earnings growth of 10%-12% over the next 3-5 years, suggesting fair valuations.
- Investment Recommendations: While both RTX and WM are solid investment options, analysts have identified 10 other stocks that may offer higher returns, prompting investors to consider these alternatives before making decisions.
- Surging Oil Prices: The ongoing Iran war has led to a significant increase in global oil prices, with approximately 20% of the world's oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in an overall market decline and expected long-term economic impacts.
- Extended Rebuilding Timeline: The reconstruction of LNG assets is projected to take 3-5 years, and if the conflict persists, this timeline may extend further, posing greater challenges to the global economy.
- Supply Chain Complexity: The current issues are more complex than mere supply shortages, particularly with Qatar's LNG facilities damaged, leading to uncertain recovery times that could affect production across multiple industries.
- Investor Sentiment Deterioration: The S&P 500 has dropped about 4% year-to-date, with the fear and greed index falling to 17, indicating a heightened fear among investors regarding future market conditions, which may lead to increased market volatility.
- WM's Steady Growth: Waste Management (WM) owns 257 landfills and 482 transfer stations by the end of 2025, and despite Middle East tensions, WM's dividends have increased for 23 consecutive years, with the latest hike of 14.5% rapidly boosting investor yield.
- Cash Flow and Investment: WM expects a 30% growth in free cash flow this year, driven by a $1.4 billion investment in automation, utilizing AI technology to enhance waste processing efficiency, which is likely to further strengthen its dividend safety and growth potential.
- GILD's R&D Investment: Gilead Sciences (GILD) spent $5.7 billion on R&D, representing 20% of its revenue, and the new AI research center in California is expected to enhance drug development efficiency, potentially shortening time to market.
- Dividend Growth Potential: Although GILD's current dividend yield is 2.7%, the recent 50% increase indicates strong growth potential, and a 10% rise in free cash flow to $3.1 billion easily covers its $1 billion dividend payout, suggesting the market has yet to fully recognize its AI-driven potential.
- Increased Market Volatility: The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index is nearing a multi-month peak, which historically signals potential market corrections, leading to heightened investor anxiety and possible short-term instability.
- Defensive Investment in Verizon: Verizon Communications offers a forward-looking dividend yield of 5.7%, providing stable cash income amid economic uncertainty, highlighting its investment value as consumer demand for mobile services remains strong.
- Coca-Cola's Stability: With a dividend yield of 2.8%, Coca-Cola, despite being lower than Verizon's, boasts a 64-year history of dividend increases and a diverse beverage portfolio, making it a reliable investment during economic downturns as consumers continue to purchase its products.
- Resilience of Waste Management: Waste Management is recognized as a defensive stock that historically performs well during market downturns; despite being a cliché choice, its consistent demand during economic hardships makes it a popular pick among investors.










