Ukrainian Drone Attacks Disrupt Russian Crude Exports
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 day ago
0mins
Should l Buy SHEL?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Export Capability Impacted: Ukrainian drone strikes have nearly halted crude loadings at Russia's Ust-Luga port, significantly impairing the country's maritime crude export capabilities and operational capacity.
- Severe Port Damage: Ust-Luga and Primorsk ports, which previously handled approximately 45% of Russia's seaborne crude exports totaling 1.72 million barrels per day, are now severely damaged, creating a bottleneck that threatens global oil supply.
- Deteriorating Fiscal Outlook: While global oil prices had risen due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, the inability to transport crude has severely blunted potential revenue growth, worsening Russia's fiscal outlook amid a widening budget gap.
- Structural Economic Challenges: The focus on targeting energy infrastructure indicates a shift toward industrial attrition in the war, presenting structural challenges to the Russian economy that cannot be easily mitigated through air defenses, with investors concerned about the duration of repairs at the ports, as any delays could redirect global crude flows.
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Analyst Views on SHEL
Wall Street analysts forecast SHEL stock price to fall
10 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 92.170
Low
41.75
Averages
74.27
High
91.00
Current: 92.170
Low
41.75
Averages
74.27
High
91.00
About SHEL
Shell plc is an international energy company engaged in the principal aspects of the energy and petrochemical industries. The Company's segments include Integrated Gas, Upstream, Marketing, Chemicals and Products, Renewables and Energy Solutions, and Corporate. The Integrated Gas segment includes liquefied natural gas (LNG), conversion of natural gas into gas-to-liquids (GTL) fuels and other products. It includes natural gas and liquids exploration and extraction, and the operation of the upstream and midstream infrastructure. The Upstream segment includes exploration and extraction of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. It also markets and transports oil and gas and operates the infrastructure necessary to deliver them to the market. The Marketing segment comprises the Mobility, Lubricants, and Sectors & Decarbonization businesses. The Chemicals and Products segment includes chemicals manufacturing plants with their own marketing network, and refineries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Ukrainian Drone Attacks Disrupt Russian Crude Exports
- Export Capability Impacted: Ukrainian drone strikes have nearly halted crude loadings at Russia's Ust-Luga port, significantly impairing the country's maritime crude export capabilities and operational capacity.
- Severe Port Damage: Ust-Luga and Primorsk ports, which previously handled approximately 45% of Russia's seaborne crude exports totaling 1.72 million barrels per day, are now severely damaged, creating a bottleneck that threatens global oil supply.
- Deteriorating Fiscal Outlook: While global oil prices had risen due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, the inability to transport crude has severely blunted potential revenue growth, worsening Russia's fiscal outlook amid a widening budget gap.
- Structural Economic Challenges: The focus on targeting energy infrastructure indicates a shift toward industrial attrition in the war, presenting structural challenges to the Russian economy that cannot be easily mitigated through air defenses, with investors concerned about the duration of repairs at the ports, as any delays could redirect global crude flows.
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Energy Executives Warn of Middle East War Impact
- Oil Supply Crisis: CEOs of major energy companies warned at S&P Global's CERAWeek that the Iran war has disrupted 8 million barrels of oil and 20% of the LNG market daily, potentially leading to fuel shortages in Asia and Europe, severely impacting the global economy.
- Market Reaction Lag: ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance noted that the market is not reflecting the scale of the supply disruption, with oil prices likely to remain high at $99.64 per barrel even after the conflict ends, as countries will need to restock depleted reserves.
- Geopolitical Risks Escalate: Kuwait Petroleum CEO Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah stated that Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not only an attack on Gulf nations but poses a threat to the global economy, potentially causing a domino effect throughout the supply chain.
- Fuel Shortages Spread: Shell CEO Wael Sawan highlighted that jet fuel and diesel prices have surged to $200 and $160 per barrel respectively, with the crisis expected to impact major Asian economies and reach Europe by April, prompting governments to stockpile and protect their supplies.
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- Energy-Driven Inflation Pressure: The war with Iran has intensified macro uncertainty, leading UBS to predict that Europe will face new energy-driven inflation, with consumer prices remaining elevated and real incomes under pressure, despite a full-scale recession not being the base case.
- Risk of Growth Slowdown: Analysts warn that the duration of current maritime disruptions will determine whether Europe faces a shallow slowdown or deeper stagnation, with GDP growth expected to modestly slow as private consumption and corporate investment are deferred.
- Urgency of Policy Response: A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely push inflation significantly higher, forcing central banks to maintain a restrictive policy stance longer than anticipated, which will compress margins for debt-heavy sectors and energy-intensive manufacturing.
- Strategic Investor Adjustments: UBS advises institutional investors to adopt selective de-risking strategies in the uncertain environment, focusing on
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- Diverse Trading Venues: The buyback occurred across multiple trading venues, including LSE, Chi-X, and BATS, demonstrating the company's strategic flexibility in optimizing its repurchase strategy across different markets.
- Background of Buyback Program: This share repurchase is part of a buyback program announced on February 5, 2026, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and boosting market confidence, which is expected to have a positive impact on the stock price.
- Compliance and Regulation: Shell's buyback activities comply with Chapter 9 of the UK Listing Rules and the Market Abuse Regulation, ensuring all transactions meet regulatory requirements, thereby reducing legal risks and enhancing investor trust.
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- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the current stock price to the 200-day moving average can provide valuable insights for investors, helping to assess market trends and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: ETFs trade similarly to stocks, where investors are buying and selling 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting the liquidity and market performance of the ETF.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in ETF shares outstanding focuses on notable inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), as these changes can affect the performance of the individual stocks held within the ETF.
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Ukrainian Drone Attacks Disrupt Russian Crude Exports
- Export Capability Impacted: Ukrainian drone strikes have nearly halted crude loadings at Russia's Ust-Luga port, significantly impairing the country's maritime crude export capabilities and operational capacity.
- Severe Port Damage: Ust-Luga and Primorsk ports, which previously handled approximately 45% of Russia's seaborne crude exports totaling 1.72 million barrels per day, are now severely damaged, creating a bottleneck that threatens global oil supply.
- Deteriorating Fiscal Outlook: While global oil prices had risen due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, the inability to transport crude has severely blunted potential revenue growth, worsening Russia's fiscal outlook amid a widening budget gap.
- Structural Economic Challenges: The focus on targeting energy infrastructure indicates a shift toward industrial attrition in the war, presenting structural challenges to the Russian economy that cannot be easily mitigated through air defenses, with investors concerned about the duration of repairs at the ports, as any delays could redirect global crude flows.
See More
Energy Executives Warn of Middle East War Impact
- Oil Supply Crisis: CEOs of major energy companies warned at S&P Global's CERAWeek that the Iran war has disrupted 8 million barrels of oil and 20% of the LNG market daily, potentially leading to fuel shortages in Asia and Europe, severely impacting the global economy.
- Market Reaction Lag: ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance noted that the market is not reflecting the scale of the supply disruption, with oil prices likely to remain high at $99.64 per barrel even after the conflict ends, as countries will need to restock depleted reserves.
- Geopolitical Risks Escalate: Kuwait Petroleum CEO Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah stated that Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not only an attack on Gulf nations but poses a threat to the global economy, potentially causing a domino effect throughout the supply chain.
- Fuel Shortages Spread: Shell CEO Wael Sawan highlighted that jet fuel and diesel prices have surged to $200 and $160 per barrel respectively, with the crisis expected to impact major Asian economies and reach Europe by April, prompting governments to stockpile and protect their supplies.
See More
European Economy Faces Energy-Driven Inflation Challenges
- Energy-Driven Inflation Pressure: The war with Iran has intensified macro uncertainty, leading UBS to predict that Europe will face new energy-driven inflation, with consumer prices remaining elevated and real incomes under pressure, despite a full-scale recession not being the base case.
- Risk of Growth Slowdown: Analysts warn that the duration of current maritime disruptions will determine whether Europe faces a shallow slowdown or deeper stagnation, with GDP growth expected to modestly slow as private consumption and corporate investment are deferred.
- Urgency of Policy Response: A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely push inflation significantly higher, forcing central banks to maintain a restrictive policy stance longer than anticipated, which will compress margins for debt-heavy sectors and energy-intensive manufacturing.
- Strategic Investor Adjustments: UBS advises institutional investors to adopt selective de-risking strategies in the uncertain environment, focusing on
See More
Shell plc Announces Share Buyback Transactions
- Share Buyback Volume: On March 27, 2026, Shell plc repurchased 459,772 shares at a highest price of £34.80 and a lowest price of £34.28, with a volume-weighted average price of £34.55, indicating the company's stability amid market fluctuations.
- Diverse Trading Venues: The buyback occurred across multiple trading venues, including LSE, Chi-X, and BATS, demonstrating the company's strategic flexibility in optimizing its repurchase strategy across different markets.
- Background of Buyback Program: This share repurchase is part of a buyback program announced on February 5, 2026, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and boosting market confidence, which is expected to have a positive impact on the stock price.
- Compliance and Regulation: Shell's buyback activities comply with Chapter 9 of the UK Listing Rules and the Market Abuse Regulation, ensuring all transactions meet regulatory requirements, thereby reducing legal risks and enhancing investor trust.
See More
DFIV Stock Price Analysis and ETF Dynamics
- Price Fluctuation Analysis: DFIV's 52-week low is $34.28 and high is $56.315, with the current trading price at $51.47, indicating price volatility within this range that may influence investor buying decisions.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the current stock price to the 200-day moving average can provide valuable insights for investors, helping to assess market trends and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: ETFs trade similarly to stocks, where investors are buying and selling 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting the liquidity and market performance of the ETF.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in ETF shares outstanding focuses on notable inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), as these changes can affect the performance of the individual stocks held within the ETF.
See More
Iran Conflict and U.S. Shale Production Surge Prompt Oil Giants to Explore Distant Markets
- Oil and Gas Companies' Strategy: Companies in the oil and gas sector are increasingly looking for new opportunities beyond the U.S. market.
- Impact of Global Events: The ongoing war in Iran is expected to further accelerate the search for resources in distant regions.
See More
