The Unexpected Advantage Credit Card Companies Find in Economic Recessions
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 11 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Credit Card Functionality: Credit cards serve as a revolving credit facility for consumers, allowing them to make purchases with the promise of future repayment, while banks issue the cards and process transactions through companies like Visa and Mastercard, which do not bear credit risk.
Impact of Economic Downturns: While Visa and Mastercard are not immune to recessions, they may benefit from increased transaction volume as consumers rely on credit cards during tough financial times, making them more resilient compared to banks and other credit card issuers that carry credit risk.
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Analyst Views on COF
Wall Street analysts forecast COF stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
16 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 206.890
Low
256.00
Averages
280.42
High
310.00
Current: 206.890
Low
256.00
Averages
280.42
High
310.00
About COF
Capital One Financial Corporation is a diversified financial services holding company with banking and non-banking subsidiaries. The Company offers a broad spectrum of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients through a variety of channels. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking and Commercial Banking. The Credit Card segment consists of its domestic consumer and small business card lending, and international card businesses in the United Kingdom and Canada. The Consumer Banking segment consists of its deposit gathering and lending activities for consumers and small businesses, and national auto lending. The Commercial Banking segment consists of its lending, deposit gathering, capital markets and treasury management services to commercial real estate and commercial and industrial customers. Its principal operating subsidiary is Capital One, National Association, which offers banking products and financial services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Banking Services: Most commercial banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Capital One, are closed today following the Federal Reserve's holiday schedule, although online banking and ATM services remain operational, with transactions likely delayed until the next business day.
- Postal Service Suspension: The U.S. Postal Service has suspended regular mail delivery and closed all retail post office locations today, while private carriers continue to operate, highlighting the operational differences in public services during holidays.
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- Marvell Technology Growth Potential: As an AI-focused company, Marvell Technology has gone through significant ups and downs, yet its growth trajectory is still viewed positively, indicating potential for long-term investment.
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- Cautious Industry Response: Major credit card issuers like Capital One are in a holding pattern amidst political rhetoric, fearing that if a cap is implemented, they will be compelled to cut credit lines, adversely affecting credit access for lower-income households.
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See More
Investment Opportunities Amid Market Volatility
- Market Stability Watch: After a brutal sell-off in the previous session, the market is trying to stabilize, particularly in sectors like banking and media, with investors scanning for opportunities amid AI disruption fears.
- Financials Rebound: Despite Thursday's declines where Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs fell 3% and 4% respectively, Baird upgraded Wells Fargo to neutral, citing a more reasonable valuation and optimistic growth outlook.
- Software Stocks Recovery: Salesforce, Palo Alto Networks, and CrowdStrike saw gains on Friday, indicating signs of recovery in the software sector after weeks of decline, with Morgan Stanley analysts expressing a positive outlook.
- Earnings Preview Ahead: Palo Alto Networks is set to report earnings next Tuesday, with analysts expecting that the integration of recent acquisitions will enhance its product suite, while Texas Roadhouse faces weak earnings due to beef inflation pressures, prompting cautious investor sentiment.
See More
Overview of U.S. Markets Closure on Presidents' Day
- Market Closure: The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are closed today in observance of Presidents' Day, with U.S. bond markets also fully shut down, indicating the holiday's direct impact on financial operations, with trading resuming on February 17.
- Banking Services: Most commercial banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Capital One, are closed today following the Federal Reserve's holiday schedule, although online banking and ATM services remain operational, with transactions likely delayed until the next business day.
- Postal Service Suspension: The U.S. Postal Service has suspended regular mail delivery and closed all retail post office locations today, while private carriers continue to operate, highlighting the operational differences in public services during holidays.
- Retail Promotions: Many department stores are leveraging Presidents' Day for significant sales, particularly in furniture and appliances, aiming to attract consumers and boost sales, reflecting retailers' strategic approaches during holiday periods.
See More
Analysis of Marvell Technology Stock Pullback
- Market Volatility Expected: The ongoing rotation among investors suggests that market volatility will persist, and while Marvell Technology's recent pullback may seem excessive, its growth potential in the AI sector remains promising.
- Investment Recommendation: Although Marvell Technology was not included in the current top stock picks by The Motley Fool Stock Advisor, its unique position in AI technology, particularly in relation to partnerships with Nvidia and Intel, warrants attention.
- Historical Returns Comparison: Data from The Motley Fool indicates that previously recommended stocks like Netflix and Nvidia yielded returns of 414,554% and 1,120,663% respectively, highlighting the significant long-term investment value of their recommendations.
- Investor Community: Joining The Motley Fool's investor community provides access to the latest top 10 stock recommendations; while Marvell Technology is not among them, its potential market performance continues to attract investor interest.
See More
Investment Opportunities Amid Market Volatility
- Market Volatility Analysis: All five stocks discussed have experienced varying degrees of pullback, and this volatility is expected to continue in the foreseeable future as investors rotate their assets.
- Overdone Sell-off Assessment: Despite the market pressure, the sell-off of certain stocks appears overdone, and analysts believe these stocks remain attractive for inclusion in investment portfolios, particularly Marvell Technology.
- Marvell Technology Growth Potential: As an AI-focused company, Marvell Technology has gone through significant ups and downs, yet its growth trajectory is still viewed positively, indicating potential for long-term investment.
- Video Content Recommendation: The video will delve deeper into the performance of these stocks, encouraging viewers to subscribe to the channel and check out the special offer in the link below for more investment insights.
See More
Market Divergence: Industrials Surge While Tech Stocks Struggle
- AI Fears Hit Financial Stocks: Concerns over a new AI-driven tax planning feature led to significant declines in Wells Fargo and Capital One, with shares dropping over 7.4% and nearly 7% respectively, highlighting investor sensitivity to potential threats in the wealth management sector, although Wells Fargo's rating upgrade on Friday provided some stabilization.
- Strong Performance in Industrials: Stocks like Eaton, Honeywell, and GE have continued their strong performance in 2026, with Eaton's shares rising over 4% last week and up 22% year-to-date, reflecting market optimism about economic recovery and driving what Jim Cramer describes as an
See More
Credit Card Companies Face Bipartisan Pressure
- Political Pressure Intensifies: Amid persistent inflation, Trump and Sanders have found common ground in seeking to lower credit card annual percentage rates, with Trump proposing a 10% cap and Sanders advocating for a permanent 15% cap, potentially reshaping the profitability of credit card companies.
- Cautious Industry Response: Major credit card issuers like Capital One are in a holding pattern amidst political rhetoric, fearing that if a cap is implemented, they will be compelled to cut credit lines, adversely affecting credit access for lower-income households.
- Profitability at Risk: Analysts predict that a long-term rate cap could reduce Capital One's earnings per share by 25% or wipe them out entirely, as credit card operations account for approximately 74% of its total revenue, primarily derived from interest on customer balances.
- Acquisition Impact Significant: Capital One's $35 billion acquisition of Discover last year will be affected by any interest rate limits, as Discover's credit card balances will also be impacted, further diminishing Capital One's competitive edge, especially without a robust payment network.
See More
Investment Opportunities Amid Market Volatility
- Market Stability Watch: After a brutal sell-off in the previous session, the market is trying to stabilize, particularly in sectors like banking and media, with investors scanning for opportunities amid AI disruption fears.
- Financials Rebound: Despite Thursday's declines where Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs fell 3% and 4% respectively, Baird upgraded Wells Fargo to neutral, citing a more reasonable valuation and optimistic growth outlook.
- Software Stocks Recovery: Salesforce, Palo Alto Networks, and CrowdStrike saw gains on Friday, indicating signs of recovery in the software sector after weeks of decline, with Morgan Stanley analysts expressing a positive outlook.
- Earnings Preview Ahead: Palo Alto Networks is set to report earnings next Tuesday, with analysts expecting that the integration of recent acquisitions will enhance its product suite, while Texas Roadhouse faces weak earnings due to beef inflation pressures, prompting cautious investor sentiment.
See More
