Stock Picks for a Challenging Economic Environment
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 02 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Fitness Industry Potential: Planet Fitness ended 2025 with approximately 20.8 million members and opened 181 new clubs, achieving a 6.7% same-store sales growth despite high inflation and rising rates, demonstrating resilience and market appeal in tough economic conditions.
- Retail Value Proposition: With nearly 21,000 locations, Dollar General has become a go-to for consumers seeking value in a high-inflation environment; despite facing inventory and pricing pressures, its convenience and low-cost strategy keep it competitive during economic hardships.
- Pest Control Market: Rollins, a high-growth pest control company, is targeting 7%-8% organic growth in the coming year, leveraging strong pricing power and a low debt profile to maintain stable revenue streams even in a slowing economy.
- Investor Confidence: While Dollar General's stock has nearly doubled in the past year, Planet Fitness and Rollins have yet to reflect their potential value, suggesting investors should monitor these companies' performance and growth prospects in adverse economic conditions.
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Analyst Views on DG
Wall Street analysts forecast DG stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 145.520
Low
125.00
Averages
147.00
High
170.00
Current: 145.520
Low
125.00
Averages
147.00
High
170.00
About DG
Dollar General Corporation is a discount retailer. The Company offers merchandise, including consumable items, seasonal items, home products and apparel. Its merchandise includes brands from manufacturers, as well as its own private brand selections with prices at discounts to brands. Its consumables category includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. Its seasonal products include holiday items, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. Its home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The Company’s apparel products include basic items for infants, toddlers, girls, boys, women and men, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- NIO's First Profit: NIO reported Q4 revenue of 34.6 billion yuan (approximately $5 billion), exceeding estimates, although its quarterly profit of $0.05 per share slightly missed expectations, marking the company's first net profit and showcasing its competitiveness in the EV market.
- Kohl's Sales Decline: Kohl's experienced a 2.8% decline in same-store sales, worse than the expected 1.7% drop, despite reporting earnings per share of $1.07, which surpassed the $0.89 estimate, indicating pressure on sales during the holiday season.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise Growth: Hewlett Packard Enterprise beat Q2 revenue estimates, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure, raising its adjusted earnings per share forecast to $2.30-$2.50, reflecting robust market demand.
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- Market Disruption: While the U.S. is less reliant on oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz, a spike in prices could significantly disrupt European and Asian markets, ultimately affecting U.S. consumer spending and economic activity.
- Wholesale Retailer Impact: Wholesale retailers like Costco typically price gas about 20 cents below the national average, currently around $3.47 per gallon, with Costco's price at approximately $3.20; however, rising oil prices may compress their fuel margins at gas stations.
- Consumer Behavior Shift: Costco's members often shop in-store after fueling, with about 50% of customers entering the store post-refueling, which brings incremental traffic, although rising oil prices could impact overall profitability.
See More
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- Earnings Season Dynamics: This week’s earnings season is strong, with retailers, tech giants, and AI winners taking center stage, as investors closely monitor how guidance and AI-driven demand will shape market direction.
- Oracle Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) saw a 68% surge last quarter, and investors are keen to see if its massive $523 billion contract backlog is beginning to translate into realized revenue, particularly as capital expenditures soar.
- UiPath Earnings Expectations: UiPath is set to report after Wednesday’s close, with analysts expecting earnings of 26 cents per share on revenue of $464.49 million, as investors will focus on the durability of growth and profitability stabilization and the impact of AI on net new ARR.
- Adobe Earnings Outlook: Adobe anticipates earnings of $5.87 per share and revenue of approximately $6.28 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 10%, with investors watching how generative AI features drive upside in net new ARR and Digital Media growth.
See More
Iran War Pressures Off-Price Retailers Amid Rising Oil Prices
- Oil Price Surge Impact: Since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict earlier this month, crude oil prices have surged to levels not seen since 2022, with WTI and Brent crude nearing $120 per barrel, leading to a 70 basis point decline in consumer spending among lower-income shoppers, exacerbating economic pressures.
- Retailer Pressure: According to Wolfe Research, off-price retailers like Dollar General and Walmart, which primarily serve low-income consumers, are expected to face greater pressure as rising oil prices may force these shoppers to tighten their budgets, impacting sales performance.
- Stock Price Declines: Dollar General's shares have fallen 5% over the past week, while Walmart and Advance Auto Parts have seen declines of nearly 3% and 7%, respectively, indicating a market sensitivity to rising energy prices and their impact on consumer confidence.
- Challenges from Import Dependence: Retailers reliant on Chinese imports, particularly in flooring and decor, may face significant headwinds as the Shanghai Containerized Index rises due to logistical issues in Southeast Asian ports, further complicating product shipments to the Middle East.
See More
Surge in Oil Prices Triggers Market Turmoil
- Oil Price Surge: U.S. crude futures have surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-2022, driven by Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, with a staggering 35.6% increase last week marking the largest weekly gain in futures history, which has directly impacted the stock market, leading to the Dow's worst week in nearly a year.
- Economic Pressure Intensifies: The rising oil prices have prompted Democrats to frame the conflict as a catalyst for increased living costs, potentially affecting the upcoming midterm elections negatively, while Republicans hope for a swift resolution to avoid economic fallout, highlighting the intersection of politics and economics.
- FDA Leadership Change: Vinay Prasad, the FDA's vaccine chief, announced his resignation effective at the end of April following widespread criticism of his decisions from the biotech and pharmaceutical sectors, illustrating the challenges and pressures regulatory bodies face in managing public health crises.
- Changing Canadian Consumption Trends: Canadians continue to boycott U.S. goods, with data indicating a shift towards domestic brands and increased local tourism spending, a trend that could significantly impact Canada's GDP and inflation rates in the long term.
See More
Surge in Oil Prices Triggers Market Turmoil
- Oil Price Surge: U.S. crude futures have surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-2022, driven by output cuts from Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, which could have significant implications for the global economy.
- Economic Pressure Intensifies: The rising oil prices are being framed by Democrats as a threat to everyday Americans' living costs, potentially forcing the Trump administration to reconsider its stance on the Iran conflict ahead of the midterm elections.
- FDA Leadership Change: Vinay Prasad, the FDA's vaccine chief, announced his resignation effective at the end of April following widespread criticism of his decisions, which may impact the FDA's vaccine policies and public trust.
- Canadian Consumption Trends: Canadians continue to boycott U.S. goods, with data showing increased spending on domestic brands and tourism, which could affect Canada's GDP and inflation, indicating structural changes in the country's economy.
See More
Fourth Quarter Earnings Highlights: Oracle and NIO
- Oracle Earnings Focus: Oracle is set to report its Q3 earnings on Wednesday, with market expectations high for updates on its artificial intelligence developments, which could significantly influence industry trends.
- NIO's First Profit: NIO reported Q4 revenue of 34.6 billion yuan (approximately $5 billion), exceeding estimates, although its quarterly profit of $0.05 per share slightly missed expectations, marking the company's first net profit and showcasing its competitiveness in the EV market.
- Kohl's Sales Decline: Kohl's experienced a 2.8% decline in same-store sales, worse than the expected 1.7% drop, despite reporting earnings per share of $1.07, which surpassed the $0.89 estimate, indicating pressure on sales during the holiday season.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise Growth: Hewlett Packard Enterprise beat Q2 revenue estimates, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure, raising its adjusted earnings per share forecast to $2.30-$2.50, reflecting robust market demand.
See More
Impact of Oil Prices Surpassing $100 Per Barrel
- Surge in Oil Prices: Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, with strategist Paul Eitelman indicating that if prices reach $150, gas prices in the U.S. could exceed $4.50 per gallon, raising consumer concerns about a potential recession.
- Market Disruption: While the U.S. is less reliant on oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz, a spike in prices could significantly disrupt European and Asian markets, ultimately affecting U.S. consumer spending and economic activity.
- Wholesale Retailer Impact: Wholesale retailers like Costco typically price gas about 20 cents below the national average, currently around $3.47 per gallon, with Costco's price at approximately $3.20; however, rising oil prices may compress their fuel margins at gas stations.
- Consumer Behavior Shift: Costco's members often shop in-store after fueling, with about 50% of customers entering the store post-refueling, which brings incremental traffic, although rising oil prices could impact overall profitability.
See More
Earnings Season Strong, Investors Eye AI-Driven Demand
- Earnings Season Dynamics: This week’s earnings season is strong, with retailers, tech giants, and AI winners taking center stage, as investors closely monitor how guidance and AI-driven demand will shape market direction.
- Oracle Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) saw a 68% surge last quarter, and investors are keen to see if its massive $523 billion contract backlog is beginning to translate into realized revenue, particularly as capital expenditures soar.
- UiPath Earnings Expectations: UiPath is set to report after Wednesday’s close, with analysts expecting earnings of 26 cents per share on revenue of $464.49 million, as investors will focus on the durability of growth and profitability stabilization and the impact of AI on net new ARR.
- Adobe Earnings Outlook: Adobe anticipates earnings of $5.87 per share and revenue of approximately $6.28 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 10%, with investors watching how generative AI features drive upside in net new ARR and Digital Media growth.
See More
Iran War Pressures Off-Price Retailers Amid Rising Oil Prices
- Oil Price Surge Impact: Since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict earlier this month, crude oil prices have surged to levels not seen since 2022, with WTI and Brent crude nearing $120 per barrel, leading to a 70 basis point decline in consumer spending among lower-income shoppers, exacerbating economic pressures.
- Retailer Pressure: According to Wolfe Research, off-price retailers like Dollar General and Walmart, which primarily serve low-income consumers, are expected to face greater pressure as rising oil prices may force these shoppers to tighten their budgets, impacting sales performance.
- Stock Price Declines: Dollar General's shares have fallen 5% over the past week, while Walmart and Advance Auto Parts have seen declines of nearly 3% and 7%, respectively, indicating a market sensitivity to rising energy prices and their impact on consumer confidence.
- Challenges from Import Dependence: Retailers reliant on Chinese imports, particularly in flooring and decor, may face significant headwinds as the Shanghai Containerized Index rises due to logistical issues in Southeast Asian ports, further complicating product shipments to the Middle East.
See More
Surge in Oil Prices Triggers Market Turmoil
- Oil Price Surge: U.S. crude futures have surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-2022, driven by Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, with a staggering 35.6% increase last week marking the largest weekly gain in futures history, which has directly impacted the stock market, leading to the Dow's worst week in nearly a year.
- Economic Pressure Intensifies: The rising oil prices have prompted Democrats to frame the conflict as a catalyst for increased living costs, potentially affecting the upcoming midterm elections negatively, while Republicans hope for a swift resolution to avoid economic fallout, highlighting the intersection of politics and economics.
- FDA Leadership Change: Vinay Prasad, the FDA's vaccine chief, announced his resignation effective at the end of April following widespread criticism of his decisions from the biotech and pharmaceutical sectors, illustrating the challenges and pressures regulatory bodies face in managing public health crises.
- Changing Canadian Consumption Trends: Canadians continue to boycott U.S. goods, with data indicating a shift towards domestic brands and increased local tourism spending, a trend that could significantly impact Canada's GDP and inflation rates in the long term.
See More
Surge in Oil Prices Triggers Market Turmoil
- Oil Price Surge: U.S. crude futures have surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-2022, driven by output cuts from Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, which could have significant implications for the global economy.
- Economic Pressure Intensifies: The rising oil prices are being framed by Democrats as a threat to everyday Americans' living costs, potentially forcing the Trump administration to reconsider its stance on the Iran conflict ahead of the midterm elections.
- FDA Leadership Change: Vinay Prasad, the FDA's vaccine chief, announced his resignation effective at the end of April following widespread criticism of his decisions, which may impact the FDA's vaccine policies and public trust.
- Canadian Consumption Trends: Canadians continue to boycott U.S. goods, with data showing increased spending on domestic brands and tourism, which could affect Canada's GDP and inflation, indicating structural changes in the country's economy.
See More
