Simply Good Foods Stock Oversold, Says Jefferies
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 16 2026
0mins
Should l Buy SMPL?
Source: seekingalpha
- Undervalued Brand: Jefferies' Kaumil Gajrawala highlights that Simply Good Foods' stock is currently trading at a 5x three-year EBITDA valuation, failing to fully reflect the strong market position of its Quest brand, despite pressure on the Atkins brand, indicating Quest's growth potential remains robust.
- Increased Market Competition: The company faces compressed growth and margin outlooks in an environment of heightened competition and inflation; while Quest nutrition bars are performing well, the highly fragmented market and increased promotional activities complicate consistent growth.
- Financial Outlook Analysis: Gajrawala suggests that excluding the Atkins brand, Simply Good Foods has an implied total equity value of approximately $2 billion, based on de-risked EBITDA multiples for Quest and OWYN, indicating that the market has undervalued its sales potential.
- Investment Rating Upgrade: Gajrawala upgrades Simply Good Foods from Hold to Buy and raises the target price to $23, reflecting the company's strong positioning at the intersection of several consumer mega-trends, despite facing short-term challenges.
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Analyst Views on SMPL
Wall Street analysts forecast SMPL stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.350
Low
22.00
Averages
27.25
High
35.00
Current: 14.350
Low
22.00
Averages
27.25
High
35.00
About SMPL
The Simply Good Foods Company is a consumer packaged food and beverage company. The Company's product portfolio consists primarily of protein bars, ready-to-drink (RTD) shakes, sweet and salty snacks, and confectionery products marketed under the Atkins, Quest and OWYN brands. The Quest brand is for consumers seeking a variety of protein-rich foods and beverages that also limit sugars and simple carbohydrates. The Atkins brand is for those following a low-carbohydrate lifestyle or seeking to manage weight or blood sugar levels. The OWYN brand is for consumers seeking protein-rich beverages that are plant-based and tested for the top nine allergens that also limit sugars and simple carbohydrates. Its OWYN RTD shakes and powders do not contain gluten, dairy, soy, eggs, nuts, tree nuts, are low in sugar, and contain prebiotic fiber. It distributes its products in major retail channels, primarily in North America, as well as through e-commerce, convenience, specialty, and other channels.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Analysts Trim Fair Value for Simply Good Foods
- Fair Value Adjustment: Simply Good Foods' fair value has been trimmed from $28.00 to $27.90, reflecting analysts' cautious expectations regarding future growth and margins, which may impact investor confidence.
- Price Target Reduction: Jefferies has lowered its price target from $23 to $22 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, indicating concerns over execution risks and margins that could lead to short-term stock price volatility.
- Long-term Growth Expectations: The long-term dollar revenue growth assumption has been reduced from 2.84% to 2.66%, and the net profit margin assumption has been lowered from 14.45% to 13.90%, which may affect investors' perceptions of the company's future profitability.
- Market Trend Analysis: Analysts highlight the rise of the 'easy protein' theme, and despite the price target reduction, Simply Good Foods is still viewed as an attractive investment opportunity to participate in the broader protein market, reflecting ongoing market interest in health-conscious eating trends.
See More
Congressional Members Invested in These 5 Stocks—Is It Worth Your Investment?
Congressional Stock Trading Legislation: Lawmakers from both parties have proposed banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks while in office, echoing sentiments from the STOCK Act of 2012, which aimed to enhance transparency in trading activities.
Recent Stock Purchases by Congress Members: Several members of Congress, including Representative Lisa McClain and Senator Shelley Moore Capito, have made notable stock purchases in companies like Big Bear AI and Simply Good Foods, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest.
Market Trends and Stock Performance: The article highlights significant stock performance trends, including a reported 52% gain for a top-performing member of Congress in stock trades, and discusses the implications of these trades on market perceptions and investor behavior.
Investor Caution and Research: Investors are advised to conduct thorough research before acting on congressional stock disclosures, as these trades may not serve as reliable trading signals due to the time lag in public disclosure and the potential for prior pricing adjustments.
See More
Simply Good Foods Upgraded by Jefferies Amid Protein Megatrend
- Strong Brand Momentum: Jefferies upgraded Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ:SMPL) to 'Buy' with a $22 price target, arguing that the company's valuation does not fully reflect the strength of its Quest brand and its broad exposure to the growing demand for protein-focused products.
- Sales Growth Potential: While overall growth has been modest at about 3% over the past 52 weeks, the Performance and Salty Snacks segments grew approximately 12%, highlighting Quest's leadership in the nutrition bar market and successful expansion into salty snacks.
- Future Growth Expectations: Jefferies projects a 7% compound annual growth rate for Quest from fiscal 2026 to 2028, although challenges at OWYN and Atkins due to distribution and product quality issues create a mixed outlook for those brands.
- Market Pressures and Recovery: Analysts noted that increased promotional activity and rising input costs are pressuring margins, but these pressures are expected to be temporary, with margins projected to recover to fiscal 2025 levels within two years.
See More
Simply Good Foods Stock Oversold, Says Jefferies
- Undervalued Brand: Jefferies' Kaumil Gajrawala highlights that Simply Good Foods' stock is currently trading at a 5x three-year EBITDA valuation, failing to fully reflect the strong market position of its Quest brand, despite pressure on the Atkins brand, indicating Quest's growth potential remains robust.
- Increased Market Competition: The company faces compressed growth and margin outlooks in an environment of heightened competition and inflation; while Quest nutrition bars are performing well, the highly fragmented market and increased promotional activities complicate consistent growth.
- Financial Outlook Analysis: Gajrawala suggests that excluding the Atkins brand, Simply Good Foods has an implied total equity value of approximately $2 billion, based on de-risked EBITDA multiples for Quest and OWYN, indicating that the market has undervalued its sales potential.
- Investment Rating Upgrade: Gajrawala upgrades Simply Good Foods from Hold to Buy and raises the target price to $23, reflecting the company's strong positioning at the intersection of several consumer mega-trends, despite facing short-term challenges.
See More
Key Wall Street Rating Updates on Monday
- Morgan Stanley Reiterates Nvidia: Morgan Stanley expresses optimism ahead of Nvidia's GTC Conference, believing the company is poised to catch up with other stocks in the supply chain, presenting a favorable entry point that could drive stock price appreciation.
- KBW Upgrades Rocket Companies: KBW upgrades Rocket Companies from market perform to outperform, projecting a total return of 50% over the next 12 months, reflecting increased confidence in mortgage industry fundamentals and earnings outlook.
- Guggenheim Initiates JFrog Buy Rating: Guggenheim highlights JFrog's strategic role in software development and enterprise risk management, forecasting accelerated cloud growth and total revenue growth in 2025, with free cash flow margin expanding to 27%.
- BTIG Upgrades Upstart Holdings: BTIG is bullish on Upstart Holdings' recent bank charter application, upgrading the stock to buy with a target price of $43, anticipating significant future earnings growth based on their financial projections.
See More
Campbell's Appoints New Chief Investor Relations Officer
- Executive Transition: Campbell's has appointed Joshua Levine as Chief Investor Relations Officer, succeeding Rebecca Gardy, who has served for six years, with Levine set to take office on March 18, 2026, which is expected to enhance the company's communication with investors.
- Extensive Experience: Levine previously served as Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury at Simply Good Foods, bringing a strong background in finance and capital markets, and he was Vice President of Investor Relations at Sovos Brands, where he successfully fostered investor engagement.
- Strategic Impact: During Gardy's tenure, she elevated Campbell's market visibility and played a pivotal role in the company's transfer to NASDAQ, and Levine's appointment is anticipated to continue this success and further solidify investor trust.
- Company Background: With over 155 years of history, Campbell's generated net sales of $10.3 billion in fiscal 2025 across 16 leading brands, and Levine's leadership is expected to help maintain the company's strong market position in the competitive food industry.
See More
Analysts Trim Fair Value for Simply Good Foods
- Fair Value Adjustment: Simply Good Foods' fair value has been trimmed from $28.00 to $27.90, reflecting analysts' cautious expectations regarding future growth and margins, which may impact investor confidence.
- Price Target Reduction: Jefferies has lowered its price target from $23 to $22 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, indicating concerns over execution risks and margins that could lead to short-term stock price volatility.
- Long-term Growth Expectations: The long-term dollar revenue growth assumption has been reduced from 2.84% to 2.66%, and the net profit margin assumption has been lowered from 14.45% to 13.90%, which may affect investors' perceptions of the company's future profitability.
- Market Trend Analysis: Analysts highlight the rise of the 'easy protein' theme, and despite the price target reduction, Simply Good Foods is still viewed as an attractive investment opportunity to participate in the broader protein market, reflecting ongoing market interest in health-conscious eating trends.
See More
Congressional Members Invested in These 5 Stocks—Is It Worth Your Investment?
Congressional Stock Trading Legislation: Lawmakers from both parties have proposed banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks while in office, echoing sentiments from the STOCK Act of 2012, which aimed to enhance transparency in trading activities.
Recent Stock Purchases by Congress Members: Several members of Congress, including Representative Lisa McClain and Senator Shelley Moore Capito, have made notable stock purchases in companies like Big Bear AI and Simply Good Foods, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest.
Market Trends and Stock Performance: The article highlights significant stock performance trends, including a reported 52% gain for a top-performing member of Congress in stock trades, and discusses the implications of these trades on market perceptions and investor behavior.
Investor Caution and Research: Investors are advised to conduct thorough research before acting on congressional stock disclosures, as these trades may not serve as reliable trading signals due to the time lag in public disclosure and the potential for prior pricing adjustments.
See More
Simply Good Foods Upgraded by Jefferies Amid Protein Megatrend
- Strong Brand Momentum: Jefferies upgraded Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ:SMPL) to 'Buy' with a $22 price target, arguing that the company's valuation does not fully reflect the strength of its Quest brand and its broad exposure to the growing demand for protein-focused products.
- Sales Growth Potential: While overall growth has been modest at about 3% over the past 52 weeks, the Performance and Salty Snacks segments grew approximately 12%, highlighting Quest's leadership in the nutrition bar market and successful expansion into salty snacks.
- Future Growth Expectations: Jefferies projects a 7% compound annual growth rate for Quest from fiscal 2026 to 2028, although challenges at OWYN and Atkins due to distribution and product quality issues create a mixed outlook for those brands.
- Market Pressures and Recovery: Analysts noted that increased promotional activity and rising input costs are pressuring margins, but these pressures are expected to be temporary, with margins projected to recover to fiscal 2025 levels within two years.
See More
Simply Good Foods Stock Oversold, Says Jefferies
- Undervalued Brand: Jefferies' Kaumil Gajrawala highlights that Simply Good Foods' stock is currently trading at a 5x three-year EBITDA valuation, failing to fully reflect the strong market position of its Quest brand, despite pressure on the Atkins brand, indicating Quest's growth potential remains robust.
- Increased Market Competition: The company faces compressed growth and margin outlooks in an environment of heightened competition and inflation; while Quest nutrition bars are performing well, the highly fragmented market and increased promotional activities complicate consistent growth.
- Financial Outlook Analysis: Gajrawala suggests that excluding the Atkins brand, Simply Good Foods has an implied total equity value of approximately $2 billion, based on de-risked EBITDA multiples for Quest and OWYN, indicating that the market has undervalued its sales potential.
- Investment Rating Upgrade: Gajrawala upgrades Simply Good Foods from Hold to Buy and raises the target price to $23, reflecting the company's strong positioning at the intersection of several consumer mega-trends, despite facing short-term challenges.
See More
Key Wall Street Rating Updates on Monday
- Morgan Stanley Reiterates Nvidia: Morgan Stanley expresses optimism ahead of Nvidia's GTC Conference, believing the company is poised to catch up with other stocks in the supply chain, presenting a favorable entry point that could drive stock price appreciation.
- KBW Upgrades Rocket Companies: KBW upgrades Rocket Companies from market perform to outperform, projecting a total return of 50% over the next 12 months, reflecting increased confidence in mortgage industry fundamentals and earnings outlook.
- Guggenheim Initiates JFrog Buy Rating: Guggenheim highlights JFrog's strategic role in software development and enterprise risk management, forecasting accelerated cloud growth and total revenue growth in 2025, with free cash flow margin expanding to 27%.
- BTIG Upgrades Upstart Holdings: BTIG is bullish on Upstart Holdings' recent bank charter application, upgrading the stock to buy with a target price of $43, anticipating significant future earnings growth based on their financial projections.
See More
Campbell's Appoints New Chief Investor Relations Officer
- Executive Transition: Campbell's has appointed Joshua Levine as Chief Investor Relations Officer, succeeding Rebecca Gardy, who has served for six years, with Levine set to take office on March 18, 2026, which is expected to enhance the company's communication with investors.
- Extensive Experience: Levine previously served as Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury at Simply Good Foods, bringing a strong background in finance and capital markets, and he was Vice President of Investor Relations at Sovos Brands, where he successfully fostered investor engagement.
- Strategic Impact: During Gardy's tenure, she elevated Campbell's market visibility and played a pivotal role in the company's transfer to NASDAQ, and Levine's appointment is anticipated to continue this success and further solidify investor trust.
- Company Background: With over 155 years of history, Campbell's generated net sales of $10.3 billion in fiscal 2025 across 16 leading brands, and Levine's leadership is expected to help maintain the company's strong market position in the competitive food industry.
See More
