SMPL

Simply Good Foods Co

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29.450

-0.56(-1.866%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

Line

Candle

YTD

High

30.290

Open

30.020

VWAP

29.72

Vol

1.06M

Mkt Cap

2.96B

Low

29.410

Amount

31.54M

EV/EBITDA(TTM)

11.39

Total Shares

99.99M

3.11B

EV/OCF(TTM)

17.09

P/S(TTM)

2.05

The Simply Good Foods Company is a consumer packaged food and beverage company. The Company's product portfolio consists primarily of protein bars, ready-to-drink (RTD) shakes, sweet and salty snacks, and confectionery products marketed under the Atkins, Quest and OWYN brands. The Quest brand is for consumers seeking a variety of protein-rich foods and beverages that also limit sugars and simple carbohydrates. The Atkins brand is for those following a low-carbohydrate lifestyle or seeking to manage weight or blood sugar levels. The OWYN brand is for consumers seeking protein-rich beverages that are plant-based and tested for the top nine allergens that also limit sugars and simple carbohydrates. Its OWYN RTD shakes and powders do not contain gluten, dairy, soy, eggs, nuts, tree nuts, are low in sugar, and contain prebiotic fiber. It distributes its products in major retail channels, primarily in North America, as well as through e-commerce, convenience, specialty, and other channels.

Market Estimates

Earnings Estimates

Revenue

YoY Chg

EPS

YoYChg

FY2026Q2

FY2026Q1

FY2025Q4

367.11M

+2.07%

0.450

-2.28%

352.40M

+3.26%

0.440

-10.15%

368.81M

-1.83%

0.476

-4.78%

Estimates Revision

The market is revising Downward the revenue expectations for The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) for FY2025, with the revenue forecasts being adjusted by -0.57% over the past three months. During the same period, the stock price has changed by -18.10%.

Revenue Estimates for FY2025

Revise Downward

-0.57%

In Past 3 Month

EPS Estimates for FY2025

Revise Upward

+0.11%

In Past 3 Month

Stock Price

Go Down

-18.10%

In Past 3 Month

8 Analyst Rating

27.91% Upside

Wall Street analysts forecast SMPL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SMPL is 37.67 USD with a low forecast of 34.00 USD and a high forecast of 42.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

27.91% Upside

Current: 29.450

Low

34.00

Averages

37.67

High

42.00

27.91% Upside

Current: 29.450

Low

34.00

Averages

37.67

High

42.00

Bernstein

Outperform

maintain

$45 -> $42

2025-07-14

Reason

Bernstein

Price Target

$45 -> $42

2025-07-14

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on Simply Good Foods to $42 from $45 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm says it was encouraging to see organic sales growth remain fairly buoyant at 3.8% this quarter, although new guidance for FY25 implies that OSG will remain at around 4% next quarter. The trimming of the top end of guidance is obviously a negative, as recent Q4 sales are a little slower than expected and the company has also been battling COGS inflation and tariffs, Bernstein adds.

UBS

Neutral

downgrade

$41 -> $36

2025-07-01

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$41 -> $36

2025-07-01

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

UBS lowered the firm's price target on Simply Good Foods to $36 from $41 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

Stifel

Buy

downgrade

$40 -> $38

2025-06-27

Reason

Stifel

Price Target

$40 -> $38

2025-06-27

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Simply Good Foods to $38 from $40 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is lowering its estimates ahead of Q3 results due on July 10 to reflect current consumption trends and factor in a higher risk of Atkins distribution losses in the fall shelf reset, the analyst tells investors in a preview. Recent Atkins measured channel trends indicate accelerating sales growth declines, driven by worsening distribution and base velocity trends, the analyst noted. However, shares now trade at a valuation that the firm believes undervalues the growth potential of the portfolio as the Quest and OWYN brands become more than two-thirds of revenue, the analyst added.

Citi

Buy

downgrade

$43 -> $40

2025-06-19

Reason

Citi

Price Target

$43 -> $40

2025-06-19

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Citi lowered the firm's price target on Simply Good Foods to $40 from $43 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the fiscal Q3 report. The firm models inline EBITDA but looks for a slight sales miss, as indicated by consumption trends. For fiscal 2025, Citi thinks Simply could narrow its guidance to the bottom halves of its ranges for sales growth and EBITDA growth. EBITDA estimates for fiscal 2026 "could be a bit high" when considering inflationary pressures to start out the year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With the shares down 16% year-to-date, Citi says a lot of this seems to be priced in.

DA Davidson

Brian Holland

Neutral

downgrade

$42 -> $38

2025-06-09

Reason

DA Davidson

Brian Holland

Price Target

$42 -> $38

2025-06-09

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

DA Davidson analyst Brian Holland lowered the firm's price target on Simply Good Foods to $38 from $42 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company's Atkins optimization, cost inflation, and tariffs drag the firm's view of FY26 from a potentially above algorithm year a few months ago to low single digit EBITDA growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds that it expects shares to remain rangebound or worse in the near term as consensus revises FY26E lower.

UBS

Peter Grom

Hold

Initiates

$41

2025-04-23

Reason

UBS

Peter Grom

Price Target

$41

2025-04-23

Initiates

Hold

Reason

UBS initiated coverage of Simply Good Foods with a Neutral rating and $41 price target, implying 10% upside from current levels. The firm says Simply "sits in a unique position" as its exposure to category tailwinds and changes in consumer preference, coupled with share gains across the total portfolio, should allow the company to deliver consistent growth over the long term. However, this is largely priced in with Street estimates already embedding growth at the high end of the company's 4%-6% algorithm longer-term, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

See All Ratings

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL.O) is 15.23, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of 22.11. For a more detailed relative valuation and DCF analysis to assess Simply Good Foods Co 's fair value, click here.

Forward PE

The forward P/E ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future earnings per share over the next 12 months.

Undervalued

5Y Average PE

22.11

Current PE

15.23

Overvalued PE

26.02

Undervalued PE

18.20

Forward EV/EBITDA

The forward EV/EBITDA ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's enterprise value (EV) by its estimated future earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) over the next 12 months.

Undervalued

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

15.57

Current EV/EBITDA

11.65

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

17.84

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

13.30

Forward PS

The forward P/S ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future sales (or revenue) per share over the next 12 months.

Undervalued

5Y Average PS

2.76

Current PS

2.04

Overvalued PS

3.14

Undervalued PS

2.39