Progressive (PGR) Set to Announce Q1 Earnings on April 15
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy PGR?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Announcement: Progressive is scheduled to release its Q1 2023 earnings report on April 15 before market open, with consensus EPS estimates at $4.88, reflecting an 11.7% year-over-year increase, which could positively influence the stock price.
- Performance Expectations: Over the past year, Progressive has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, indicating a strong track record of profitability and market confidence.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen 15 upward revisions and 1 downward revision, while revenue estimates have experienced no upward revisions and 7 downward revisions, suggesting a cautious market outlook on future revenue growth.
- Premium Growth: Progressive reported a 5% year-over-year increase in net premiums written in February, indicating a sustained competitive position and expansion of its customer base, which may be reflected in the upcoming earnings report.
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Analyst Views on PGR
Wall Street analysts forecast PGR stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 203.470
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
Current: 203.470
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
About PGR
The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company, which has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates. The Company's segments include Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Other indemnity. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Its special lines of products include recreational vehicles, such as motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft. The Company's Personal Lines products are sold through both the agency and direct channels. The Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominately for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry. Its reinsurance activity includes both transactions which are regulated and those that are non-regulated. It offers Snapshot through hardware-based and/or mobile-app versions in all states, other than California.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Gen Digital's Market Potential: With a market cap of $12 billion, Gen Digital's stock has pulled back 37%, yet its 2.5% forward-looking dividend yield and 500 million user base make it an attractive investment option.
- Ares Management's Dividend Growth: Ares Management's stock is down 34% since January, but its record of raising dividends for eight consecutive years and a 4.6% forward yield demonstrate a commitment to stable payouts.
- Economic Environment Impact: Broader economic weakness is pressuring the private credit industry, leading to investor concerns over Ares's liquidity restrictions, although the company has historically navigated similar challenges successfully.
See More
Investment Opportunities in Insurance Stocks
- Stability in Insurance Sector: Insurance companies generally provide strong cash flow and stability to weather various economic environments; however, Progressive's stock has fallen 30% from its 52-week high, indicating increased market competition pressures.
- AI Advantage of Lemonade: Lemonade leverages artificial intelligence to optimize its business, generating $738 million in revenue last year with a 40% growth, despite a net loss of $166 million; its gross loss ratio improved to 64% in Q4, indicating significant enhancements in risk pricing capabilities.
- Long-Term Performance of Progressive: As a well-established insurance company, Progressive has achieved a 17% annualized return over the past three decades, writing $83 billion in net premiums and generating $11.3 billion in net income in 2022, showcasing its strengths in risk pricing and profitability.
- Intensifying Market Competition: Although Progressive's stock is under pressure due to a softening market with an expected 1% average premium increase in 2026, its current P/E ratio of just 10 times indicates it remains a solid investment choice given its long-term underwriting excellence.
See More
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- Stability of Insurance Stocks: Insurance stocks typically provide strong cash flow and stability, capable of weathering various economic environments, particularly as rising interest rates and prices create a hedge through their pricing power and large investment portfolios.
- Progressive's Market Performance: Despite Progressive's stock tumbling 30% from its 52-week high, it has delivered an impressive 17% annualized return over the past three decades, demonstrating its excellence in risk pricing and management, with a net income of $11.3 billion last year.
- Lemonade's AI Advantage: Lemonade leverages AI to streamline operations, achieving $738 million in revenue last year, a 40% increase, although it posted a net loss of $166 million; its gross loss ratio improved to 64% in Q4, indicating significant progress in risk pricing.
- Divergent Investment Strategies: For investors looking to diversify their portfolios, Lemonade and Progressive cater to different strategies, with Lemonade still building its foundation and not expected to be profitable until 2028, while Progressive's low valuation and long-term underwriting excellence make it a more attractive buy right now.
See More
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- Earnings Performance: Progressive reported a GAAP EPS of $4.80 for Q4, missing expectations by $0.08, indicating potential pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Premium Revenue Growth: The company achieved net premiums written of $23.64 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, beating market expectations by $441 million, demonstrating its competitive strength and expanding customer base.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: Despite the shortfall in EPS, Progressive is still viewed as a long-term compounder due to its strong underwriting discipline and market dominance, suggesting potential for higher profitability in the future.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Investors are cautious regarding the company's strategy of sacrificing margins for revenue growth, which may impact its stock performance, necessitating close monitoring of future profitability recovery.
See More
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- Premium Revenue Increase: The net premiums written for March 2026 improved by 10% to $9.91 billion, while net premiums earned grew by 11% to $7.52 billion, demonstrating the company's sustained competitive strength in the market.
- Policy Count Expansion: As of March 31, 2026, the total number of policies in force increased by 9% to 39.57 million from 36.29 million in March 2025, indicating an expansion of the customer base and improved market penetration.
- Quarterly Performance: For the first quarter of 2026, net income reached $2.82 billion, or $4.80 per share, reflecting a 10% increase from $2.57 billion and $4.37 per share in the prior-year quarter, highlighting ongoing improvements in premium revenue and profitability.
See More
