FedEx (FDX) Anticipated to Exceed Earnings Projections: Is It a Good Time to Invest?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 11 2025
0mins
Should l Buy FDX?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Earnings Expectations: FedEx is anticipated to report flat earnings of $4.05 per share for the quarter ending November 2025, with revenues expected to rise by 4.2% to $22.88 billion.
Earnings ESP Insight: The company has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.38%, indicating analysts are optimistic about FedEx's earnings prospects, supported by a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy).
Historical Performance: FedEx has beaten consensus EPS estimates in three out of the last four quarters, with a notable surprise of +4.93% in the last reported quarter.
Investment Considerations: While a positive earnings report could boost the stock, investors should also consider other factors that may influence stock performance beyond just earnings results.
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Analyst Views on FDX
Wall Street analysts forecast FDX stock price to fall
20 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 392.380
Low
210.00
Averages
315.05
High
365.00
Current: 392.380
Low
210.00
Averages
315.05
High
365.00
About FDX
FedEx Corporation provides customers and businesses with a portfolio of transportation, e-commerce, and business services. The Company offers integrated business solutions utilizing its flexible and efficient global network. Its segments include Federal Express, FedEx Freight, and Corporate, other, and eliminations. Federal Express segment includes express transportation, small-package ground delivery, and freight transportation, and it also operates combined sales, marketing, administrative, and information-technology functions in shared service operations for United States customers. FedEx Freight segment includes FedEx Freight (LTL freight transportation) and FedEx Custom Critical (time-critical transportation). Corporate, other, and elimination segments include FedEx Dataworks, Inc. (FedEx Dataworks), FedEx Office and Print Services, Inc. (FedEx Office), and FedEx Logistics, Inc. (FedEx Logistics). FedEx Logistics offers customs brokerage, specialty transportation, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Lawsuit Surge: Major U.S. importers, including FedEx, Costco, and UPS, are facing lawsuits from consumers seeking compensation for increased costs due to tariffs, which could negatively affect these companies' market performance.
- Market Reaction: Following the acceptance of tariff refund claims, FedEx shares surged to record highs, gaining 35% year-to-date, while Costco shares also rose 17%, indicating a positive market response to the refund news.
- Retailer Strategies: FedEx has committed to returning tariff refunds to customers, while Costco plans to pass on refunds through lower prices and better values, showcasing differing strategies among retailers in response to tariff pressures.
See More
Costco and FedEx Face Legal Pressure Over Tariff Refunds
- Increase in Legal Suits: With the U.S. Supreme Court striking down a batch of tariffs, billions in tariff refunds are set to flow back to U.S. businesses, leading to legal pressure on Costco and FedEx as consumers argue they should share in these refunds, highlighting market concerns over corporate pricing strategies.
- Refund Application Process: Despite the substantial refund amounts, companies must file claims through a new government system, which has just begun, potentially taking months to process and impacting companies' cash flow and short-term financial performance.
- Strategic Differences Between Costco and FedEx: FedEx has stated it will directly return tariff refunds to customers, while Costco opts for a strategy of lowering prices and enhancing value over time, indicating a divergence that could affect brand perception and competitive positioning in the market.
- Consumer Impact: As businesses may have absorbed some tariff costs or passed them on through higher prices, the question of refund allocation has sparked widespread discussion, likely leading to more lawsuits in the future, which could influence corporate operational strategies and market dynamics.
See More
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- Refund System Launch: The US Supreme Court's February decision to strike down Trump's IEEPA tariffs is expected to lead to refunds of up to $166-$175 billion for approximately 330,000 importers, requiring businesses to apply through the new CAPE system, indicating government support for importers.
- Simplified Application Process: The CAPE system will process claims via the ACE Portal of U.S. Customs and Border Protection, with Phase 1 focusing on straightforward cases, and refunds expected to be issued electronically within 60 to 90 days, enhancing liquidity for businesses.
- Ongoing Trade Dispute: The Trump administration is seeking to reinstate IEEPA tariffs under different legal frameworks, leveraging Sections 122 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to increase negotiation leverage, highlighting ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
- Consumer Impact: While some businesses absorbed tariff costs, consumers have no refund mechanism, leading to class action lawsuits against companies like Costco and FedEx; FedEx plans to return refunds to customers, while Costco aims to provide value through lower prices, reflecting differing corporate strategies in response to tariff refunds.
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- Rising Shipping Costs: Amazon's plan to cut approximately 20% of packages shipped through USPS, equating to about 200 million packages annually, will lead to higher shipping costs as USPS spreads its fixed costs over fewer packages, particularly impacting rural areas.
- Declining Service Reliability: With Amazon reducing its package volume, USPS may need to raise rates for other customers or cut service levels, resulting in higher shipping costs and unreliable delivery services for rural and small businesses, thus affecting their market competitiveness.
- Unequal E-commerce Experience: According to ShipMatrix data, on-time delivery rates in rural areas are 5% to 7% lower than in urban markets, indicating that if the agreement takes effect, rural consumers will experience worsened e-commerce delivery times and service quality.
- Significant Impact on Small Businesses: Small businesses, which rely on USPS for low-cost shipping, may pass on rising shipping costs through higher prices or delivery fees, putting them at a competitive disadvantage, especially as over 60% of sales on Amazon come from third-party sellers.
See More
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- REIT Performance: Realty Income owns approximately 15,500 single-tenant net-leased properties, with nearly 99% leased, ensuring a steady revenue stream, and has paid monthly dividends since 1994, with an annual payout of about $3.25 per share, yielding 5%, significantly above the S&P 500's 1.1% average.
- Coca-Cola's Transformation: PepsiCo, known as a 'Dividend King' for raising dividends for 54 consecutive years, currently pays a dividend of $5.69 per share with a yield of about 3.6%, and despite health-conscious trends, net revenue grew by 2% in 2025 and nearly 9% in Q1 2026, demonstrating resilience in adversity.
- Brand Integration Challenges: J.M. Smucker, with its portfolio of well-known brands, faces integration challenges from the Hostess Cakes acquisition, with sales not meeting expectations; however, its dividend has increased for 24 straight years, currently at $4.40 per share with a yield of 4.7%, and free cash flow easily covered $348 million in dividend costs for the first three quarters.
- Market Volatility Impact: Although J.M. Smucker's stock has declined over 40% since 2023, its P/E ratio has fallen to 22, still providing a solid investment opportunity for income-seeking investors, indicating the company's strong capability to maintain high-yield dividends.
See More
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- Consistent Dividend History: Realty Income has paid monthly dividends since 1994, with an annual payout of nearly $3.25 per share and a yield of 5%, significantly above the S&P 500's 1.1%, demonstrating its stability and attractiveness in uncertain markets.
- Strong Cash Flow Support: The company generates $4.25 per share in funds from operations, covering dividend expenses and maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, indicating that investors can purchase a high-yield stock at a relatively low price, enhancing its appeal.
- Sustainable Growth Potential: Despite market challenges, PepsiCo maintains a 54-year dividend growth streak, with a current payout of $5.69 per share yielding 3.6%, showcasing its resilience underpinned by a diversified product portfolio and stable cash flow.
- Attractive Discount Pricing: J.M. Smucker offers a $4.40 per share dividend with a yield of 4.7%, and despite facing sales pressures, its $672 million in free cash flow easily covers $348 million in dividend expenses, indicating its ongoing capacity for high-yield dividends.
See More
