Ford's First Quarter Earnings Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 days ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Earnings Forecast: Ford is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of 19 cents and automotive revenue of $38.82 billion for the first quarter, reflecting a stable performance with a 3.7% year-over-year revenue increase.
- Profit Growth: The adjusted earnings per share is projected to rise from 14 cents in Q1 2025 to 19 cents, marking a significant 35.7% increase, indicating improved profitability for the company.
- Restructuring Impact: Ford plans to record approximately $19.5 billion in special items starting in Q4 2025, including $7 billion for 2026 and 2027, primarily aimed at restructuring business priorities and EV investments, highlighting the company's strategic focus on future growth.
- 2026 Guidance: The guidance for 2026 includes an expected adjusted EBIT of $8 billion to $10 billion, up from $6.8 billion last year, suggesting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance moving forward.
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Analyst Views on F
Wall Street analysts forecast F stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
10 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 11.690
Low
11.00
Averages
13.65
High
16.00
Current: 11.690
Low
11.00
Averages
13.65
High
16.00
About F
Ford Motor Company is an automobile company. The Company develops and delivers Ford trucks, sport utility vehicles, commercial vans and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles, along with connected services. The Company’s segments include Ford Blue, Ford Model e, Ford Pro, and Ford Credit. The Ford Blue segment primarily includes the sale of Ford and Lincoln internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers. The Ford Model e segment primarily includes the sale of its electric vehicles, service parts, accessories, and digital services for retail customers. The Ford Pro segment primarily includes the sale of Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, accessories, and services for commercial, government, and rental customers. The Ford Credit segment consists of the Ford Credit business on a consolidated basis, which is primarily vehicle-related financing and leasing activities. Its vehicle brands are Ford and Lincoln.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Experienced Team: Chris Infantino and Bob Wolfbauer from Tim Lamb Group, with over 60 years of combined experience in Ford dealership appointments, ensured a smooth transaction, highlighting the importance of manufacturer knowledge throughout the process.
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- Economic Growth Slowdown: Although the first quarter GDP growth was 2%, slightly below historical rates, a surge in business investment offset the slowdown in consumer spending, indicating that the full negative impact of rising gas prices on the economy has yet to be realized.
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See More
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- Successful Transaction: Friendship Ford was successfully sold on April 29, 2026, with the Tim Lamb Group representing the seller, marking a strategic restructuring for the company in North Carolina.
- New Name and Management: The new owner, CarHeroes, has renamed it CarHeroes Ford and plans to undertake Ford-required Signature 2.0 renovations to enhance customer experience, demonstrating a commitment to the market.
- Experienced Team: Chris Infantino and Bob Wolfbauer from Tim Lamb Group, with over 60 years of combined experience in Ford dealership appointments, ensured a smooth transaction, highlighting the importance of manufacturer knowledge throughout the process.
- Employee Retention Plan: CarHeroes plans to retain as many current employees as possible through the transaction, indicating its commitment to staff and business continuity.
See More
Surge in Aluminum Prices Significantly Impacts Business Costs
- Aluminum Price Surge: Since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange have surged over 13%, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 19% in 2026, creating cost pressures for manufacturers of cars and beer cans.
- Ford's Uncertain Outlook: Ford's CFO indicated that the surge in aluminum prices is leading the company to expect commodity cost pressures to exceed $2 billion, nearly double previous estimates, highlighting the impact of the Middle East situation on automotive manufacturing.
- Molson Coors Cost Increase: Molson Coors' CFO disclosed that rising aluminum prices added around $30 million to the cost of goods sold in the first quarter, with expectations of continued inflationary pressures in the current quarter.
- Bleak Market Outlook: UBS forecasts aluminum supply growth of only 0.3% in 2026, significantly down from a prior estimate of 2.4%, indicating ongoing impacts from the Middle East situation on the aluminum supply chain, with prices also driven by rising natural gas and coal costs.
See More
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- Aluminum Price Surge: Since the onset of the U.S.-Iran war, aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange have surged over 13%, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 19% in 2026, significantly impacting manufacturing costs for industries ranging from automotive to beverage cans.
- Ford's Cost Warning: Ford's CFO indicated that the soaring aluminum prices are clouding the outlook for its F-150 production, with commodity cost pressures expected to exceed $2 billion in 2026, nearly double previous estimates, highlighting the volatility in the market.
- Molson Coors Cost Increase: The CFO of Molson Coors reported that rising aluminum prices added around $30 million to the cost of goods sold in the first quarter, with expectations of further inflation in the current quarter, which could adversely affect profit margins.
- Supply Growth Slowdown: UBS forecasts that aluminum supply will grow only 0.3% in 2026, down from a prior estimate of 2.4%, primarily due to disruptions in the Middle East and limited capacity increases in Europe, exacerbating market tensions.
See More
Rising Gas Prices Impact Consumer Sentiment
- Impact on Spending: According to AAA, the national average gas price has surpassed $4.40 per gallon, making it cost over $100 to fill the 23-gallon tank of the Ford F-150, which is a 50% increase from the pre-war price of $2.98, directly affecting consumer spending habits.
- Declining Consumer Sentiment: A CNBC poll revealed that 80% of respondents indicated that rising gas prices are altering their spending patterns, with 60% cutting back on entertainment and over half planning to travel less, highlighting a rapid decline in consumer confidence.
- Economic Growth Slowdown: The latest GDP estimate shows a 2% growth in Q1, but with consumer spending slowing down, business investment growth has offset this decline, indicating that the full impact of rising fuel prices on the economy is yet to be realized.
- Divergent Market Performance: While energy stocks have risen 31% year-to-date, many consumer discretionary stocks, such as McDonald's and Domino's Pizza, have declined over the past month, illustrating that the negative effects of high gas prices on consumer spending are becoming more pronounced, warranting close investor attention.
See More
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- Impact on Consumer Spending: The national average gas price has surpassed $4.40 per gallon, resulting in over $100 to fill the 23-gallon tank of the Ford F-150, a 50% increase from the pre-war price of $2.98, which is likely to suppress consumer spending and hinder economic growth.
- Decline in Consumer Sentiment: A CNBC poll revealed that 80% of respondents indicated that rising gas prices are altering their spending habits, with 60% cutting back on entertainment and over half planning to travel less, highlighting the significant impact of high gas prices on consumer lifestyles.
- Economic Growth Slowdown: Although the first quarter GDP growth was 2%, slightly below historical rates, a surge in business investment offset the slowdown in consumer spending, indicating that the full negative impact of rising gas prices on the economy has yet to be realized.
- Mixed Market Reactions: Energy stocks have risen 31% year-to-date, while many consumer discretionary stocks, such as McDonald's and Domino's Pizza, have declined over the past month, demonstrating the varying effects of high gas prices across different sectors, prompting investors to closely monitor this trend.
See More
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- Market Demand Response: These new packages are designed to meet the complex demands of business customers for efficiency, speed, and precision, helping dealers enhance customer experience and maintain competitiveness in a rapidly changing market.
- Value of Specialized Tools: Work Truck Solutions, as a trusted vendor for Ford, leverages its proven track record in work-ready vehicles to transform chassis data, body specifications, and vocational requirements into marketable listings, further driving market leadership for CVC dealers.
- Flexible Package Options: CVC dealers can select the most suitable package based on their commercial development stage and strategic goals, with existing subscribers having the flexibility to adjust their plans as their needs evolve throughout the year.
See More
