Apple Defies Expectations with Strong iPhone Sales in China
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 19 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AAPL?
Source: CNBC
- Strong Performance in China: In the first nine weeks of 2026, Apple saw a 23% surge in iPhone sales in China, contrasting sharply with a 4% year-over-year decline in the overall smartphone market, demonstrating Apple's resilience and strong market share amidst fierce competition.
- Financial Results Exceed Expectations: During the holiday quarter, Apple's revenue in Greater China jumped 38% to $25.53 billion, surpassing estimates by approximately $4.7 billion, indicating robust consumer enthusiasm for the iPhone 17 lineup and a strong demand for upgrades.
- Cost Management Advantage: By securing long-term memory supply contracts, Apple effectively managed costs and avoided price hikes due to the global memory shortage, further solidifying its competitive position in the market.
- AI Partnership Enhances Competitiveness: Apple's multi-year partnership with Google to leverage Gemini AI technology for Siri enhances its product intelligence, and while the annual fee of around $1 billion is significant, it provides crucial support for Apple's efforts to catch up in the AI space.
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Analyst Views on AAPL
Wall Street analysts forecast AAPL stock price to rise
27 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 248.800
Low
239.00
Averages
306.89
High
350.00
Current: 248.800
Low
239.00
Averages
306.89
High
350.00
About AAPL
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. Its product categories include iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Wearables, Home and Accessories. Its software platforms include iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, visionOS, and tvOS. Its services include advertising, AppleCare, cloud services, digital content and payment services. The Company operates various platforms, including the App Store, that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games and podcasts. It also offers digital content through subscription-based services, including Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness+, Apple Music, Apple News+, and Apple TV+. Its products include iPhone 16 Pro, iPhone 16, iPhone 15, iPhone 14, iPhone SE, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro, iPad Pro, iPad Air, AirPods, AirPods Pro, AirPods Max, Apple TV, Apple Vision Pro and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Apple Inc's Intrinsic Value Analysis Using DCF
- Intrinsic Value Assessment: According to GuruFocus's Discounted Earnings model, Apple's intrinsic value is estimated at $179.13, while its current trading price is $248.8, indicating a modest overvaluation with a margin of safety of -38.89%.
- Discount Rate Setting: The model employs an 11% discount rate, derived from a 4.4% 10-year Treasury yield plus a 6% risk premium, ensuring the assessment reflects market risks and is grounded in realistic expectations.
- Growth Stage Assumptions: In the growth stage, Apple's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow at an annual rate of 15.20% for 10 years, based on historical EPS growth data from the past decade, highlighting the company's future growth potential.
- Terminal Stage Forecast: In the terminal stage, EPS is expected to grow at a rate of 4% over 10 years, ensuring this growth rate remains below the discount rate to facilitate convergence in calculations, indicating the company's long-term stability.
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- Investment Rating Reaffirmed: Melius Research reiterated its Buy rating on Apple, highlighting the company's free cash flow and the upcoming product rollout, suggesting a potential recovery in stock price, which reflects market confidence in Apple's future performance.
- New Product Launches: Apple recently announced the iPhone 17e, a refreshed iPad Air, new MacBook Air and MacBook Pro, along with new Studio Displays and AirPods Max 2, marking one of the most lucrative product launches since the big screen iPhones in 2014.
- Stock Performance: While Apple shares saw a modest increase in premarket trading, they have declined approximately 8% year-to-date; however, over the past 12 months, the stock has gained 12%, indicating market recognition of its long-term growth potential.
- Market Dynamics: As Apple approaches its 50th anniversary, it has garnered investor interest, particularly in light of its new product launches and strategic adjustments, which could positively impact its stock price.
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- S&P 500 Performance Review: The S&P 500 has faced nearly a 6% decline in March, marking its fifth consecutive weekly loss, yet it narrowly avoids entering correction territory, with upcoming job reports expected to provide insights into economic health.
- Meta Platforms Investment Advice: Morgan Stanley recommends buying Meta Platforms, asserting that sentiment has bottomed out, and despite the company facing two litigation losses last week that impacted stock prices, early trading shows a slight recovery, indicating renewed investor confidence.
- Oracle's Positive Outlook: Bernstein analysts view Oracle's cloud and database sectors as potential AI winners, setting a price target of $319, which is more than double Friday's closing price of nearly $140, reflecting strong market confidence in its growth prospects.
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Latest Wall Street Rating Updates
- UBS Upgrade: UBS upgrades Adecoagro from Neutral to Buy, raising the price target from $8 to $16.2, indicating the company is poised to benefit from the ongoing Middle East conflict, which is expected to enhance its financial performance.
- HSBC Bullish on Carnival: HSBC upgrades Carnival from Hold to Buy, asserting that the current share price undervalues the resilience of experience-led demand, which is likely to improve the company's market performance in the near future.
- Morgan Stanley Reiterates Meta: Morgan Stanley lowers its price target for Meta from $825 to $775 but maintains it as a top investment idea, suggesting that market sentiment has bottomed out, making it an opportune time to buy.
- Deutsche Bank Upgrades Colgate: Deutsche Bank upgrades Colgate-Palmolive from Hold to Buy, highlighting the company's core business as having long-term investment value and the ability to weather current market volatility effectively.
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- Consumer Staples ETF Outperformance: The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC), holding 104 consumer staples stocks, only fell 4% during the 2022 bear market, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 19% drop and the Nasdaq's 33%, demonstrating its resilience amid economic uncertainty.
- Attractiveness of High-Quality Dividend Stocks: The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) tracks the S&P U.S. Dividend Growers Index and currently holds 338 stocks; while it is not immune to market sell-offs, it has historically outperformed the S&P 500 during downturns, with an annual expense ratio of just 0.04%.
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- Valuation Risks: The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio is nearing its highest level since the dot-com bubble burst, indicating that market valuations are high, which necessitates caution from investors regarding potential market corrections.
- Inflation-Protected ETF: The Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (VTIP) focuses on short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, delivering only a 3.15% return over the past decade, yet effectively safeguards investors' purchasing power during market downturns, with an annual expense ratio of just 0.03%.
- Consumer Staples ETF Performance: The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) holds 104 consumer staples stocks and has historically outperformed the overall market during downturns, finishing 2022 down only 4%, significantly better than the S&P 500's 19% and Nasdaq's 33% declines.
- Dividend Growth ETF: The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) tracks the S&P U.S. Dividend Growers Index with 338 stocks, although it carries sell-off risks during market volatility, it has historically outperformed the S&P 500 and has a low annual expense ratio of 0.04%.
See More
Apple Inc's Intrinsic Value Analysis Using DCF
- Intrinsic Value Assessment: According to GuruFocus's Discounted Earnings model, Apple's intrinsic value is estimated at $179.13, while its current trading price is $248.8, indicating a modest overvaluation with a margin of safety of -38.89%.
- Discount Rate Setting: The model employs an 11% discount rate, derived from a 4.4% 10-year Treasury yield plus a 6% risk premium, ensuring the assessment reflects market risks and is grounded in realistic expectations.
- Growth Stage Assumptions: In the growth stage, Apple's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow at an annual rate of 15.20% for 10 years, based on historical EPS growth data from the past decade, highlighting the company's future growth potential.
- Terminal Stage Forecast: In the terminal stage, EPS is expected to grow at a rate of 4% over 10 years, ensuring this growth rate remains below the discount rate to facilitate convergence in calculations, indicating the company's long-term stability.
See More
Apple's Product Rollout Sparks Investor Interest
- Investment Rating Reaffirmed: Melius Research reiterated its Buy rating on Apple, highlighting the company's free cash flow and the upcoming product rollout, suggesting a potential recovery in stock price, which reflects market confidence in Apple's future performance.
- New Product Launches: Apple recently announced the iPhone 17e, a refreshed iPad Air, new MacBook Air and MacBook Pro, along with new Studio Displays and AirPods Max 2, marking one of the most lucrative product launches since the big screen iPhones in 2014.
- Stock Performance: While Apple shares saw a modest increase in premarket trading, they have declined approximately 8% year-to-date; however, over the past 12 months, the stock has gained 12%, indicating market recognition of its long-term growth potential.
- Market Dynamics: As Apple approaches its 50th anniversary, it has garnered investor interest, particularly in light of its new product launches and strategic adjustments, which could positively impact its stock price.
See More
Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities Analysis
- Market Opening Outlook: The S&P 500 is set for a higher open as President Trump signals progress in U.S.-Iran war talks, reflecting investor optimism despite typically rising oil prices dragging down stocks, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.
- S&P 500 Performance Review: The S&P 500 has faced nearly a 6% decline in March, marking its fifth consecutive weekly loss, yet it narrowly avoids entering correction territory, with upcoming job reports expected to provide insights into economic health.
- Meta Platforms Investment Advice: Morgan Stanley recommends buying Meta Platforms, asserting that sentiment has bottomed out, and despite the company facing two litigation losses last week that impacted stock prices, early trading shows a slight recovery, indicating renewed investor confidence.
- Oracle's Positive Outlook: Bernstein analysts view Oracle's cloud and database sectors as potential AI winners, setting a price target of $319, which is more than double Friday's closing price of nearly $140, reflecting strong market confidence in its growth prospects.
See More
Latest Wall Street Rating Updates
- UBS Upgrade: UBS upgrades Adecoagro from Neutral to Buy, raising the price target from $8 to $16.2, indicating the company is poised to benefit from the ongoing Middle East conflict, which is expected to enhance its financial performance.
- HSBC Bullish on Carnival: HSBC upgrades Carnival from Hold to Buy, asserting that the current share price undervalues the resilience of experience-led demand, which is likely to improve the company's market performance in the near future.
- Morgan Stanley Reiterates Meta: Morgan Stanley lowers its price target for Meta from $825 to $775 but maintains it as a top investment idea, suggesting that market sentiment has bottomed out, making it an opportune time to buy.
- Deutsche Bank Upgrades Colgate: Deutsche Bank upgrades Colgate-Palmolive from Hold to Buy, highlighting the company's core business as having long-term investment value and the ability to weather current market volatility effectively.
See More
Vanguard ETFs Shine Amid Market Turbulence
- Safe Haven: The Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (VTIP) focuses on short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, delivering only a 3.15% return over the past decade, yet it protects capital during market downturns, ensuring investors' purchasing power remains intact against inflation.
- Consumer Staples ETF Outperformance: The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC), holding 104 consumer staples stocks, only fell 4% during the 2022 bear market, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 19% drop and the Nasdaq's 33%, demonstrating its resilience amid economic uncertainty.
- Attractiveness of High-Quality Dividend Stocks: The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) tracks the S&P U.S. Dividend Growers Index and currently holds 338 stocks; while it is not immune to market sell-offs, it has historically outperformed the S&P 500 during downturns, with an annual expense ratio of just 0.04%.
- Cost Efficiency Advantage: The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF boasts an annual expense ratio of 0.09%, significantly lower than the average 0.73% for similar funds, making it a preferred choice for investors seeking cost-effective options during turbulent times.
See More
Investment Havens Amid Market Turmoil
- Valuation Risks: The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio is nearing its highest level since the dot-com bubble burst, indicating that market valuations are high, which necessitates caution from investors regarding potential market corrections.
- Inflation-Protected ETF: The Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (VTIP) focuses on short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, delivering only a 3.15% return over the past decade, yet effectively safeguards investors' purchasing power during market downturns, with an annual expense ratio of just 0.03%.
- Consumer Staples ETF Performance: The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) holds 104 consumer staples stocks and has historically outperformed the overall market during downturns, finishing 2022 down only 4%, significantly better than the S&P 500's 19% and Nasdaq's 33% declines.
- Dividend Growth ETF: The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) tracks the S&P U.S. Dividend Growers Index with 338 stocks, although it carries sell-off risks during market volatility, it has historically outperformed the S&P 500 and has a low annual expense ratio of 0.04%.
See More
