Analysts Update Their Projections for CarMax Following Q3 Results
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 19 2025
0mins
Should l Buy KMX?
Source: Benzinga
Earnings Report: CarMax Inc reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of 43 cents per share, exceeding analyst expectations of 39 cents, with adjusted earnings at 51 cents after excluding restructuring charges. Quarterly sales were $5.794 billion, down 6.9% year-over-year but above the anticipated $5.678 billion.
Leadership Changes: Interim CEO David McCreight acknowledged the need for change at CarMax, emphasizing the company's strengths while the Board searches for a permanent CEO to lead the company.
Stock Performance: Following the earnings announcement, CarMax shares fell by 1.6% to $38.71, reflecting market reactions to the results and future outlook.
Analyst Ratings: Several analysts adjusted their price targets for CarMax, with most maintaining a Neutral or Equal-Weight rating, while targets were lowered significantly, with the highest target now at $37 and the lowest at $28.
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Analyst Views on KMX
Wall Street analysts forecast KMX stock price to fall
13 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
10 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 42.500
Low
24.00
Averages
33.60
High
37.00
Current: 42.500
Low
24.00
Averages
33.60
High
37.00
About KMX
CarMax, Inc. is a retailer of used autos. The Company operates through two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance (CAF). The CarMax Sales Operations segment consists of all aspects of its auto merchandising and service operations. The CarMax Sales Operations segment sells used vehicles, purchases used vehicles from customers and other sources, sells related products and services, and arranges financing options for customers. The CAF segment consists solely of its own finance operation that provides financing for customers buying retail vehicles from the Company. The CAF segment also services all auto loans, it originates and is responsible for providing billing statements, collecting payments, maintaining contact with delinquent customers, and arranging for the repossession of vehicles securing defaulted loans. It provides customers with a range of other related products and services, including extended protection plan (EPP) products and vehicle repair services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Index Increase: Cox Automotive reported a 4% year-over-year increase in the used vehicle price index for February 2026, reaching 212.3, which is up 0.8% from January 2023, indicating strong demand and an increase in dealer inventories.
- Sales Conversion Rates Rise: Jeremy Robb, Cox's chief economist, noted that since the beginning of 2026, sales conversion rates at Manheim have been solid, reflecting dealers' strong appetite for purchasing, particularly with prices rising unexpectedly in the latter half of February.
- Tax Refund Impact: Robb suggested that anticipated higher tax returns for American consumers could boost vehicle demand, although risks from the war in Iran may dampen consumer appetite in the short term, especially as gas prices rise.
- Historical Price Comparison: While used vehicle prices remain high compared to historical levels, the average listing price in January was $25,533, down from over $28,000 in 2022, yet still demonstrating market resilience, with expectations for wholesale prices to end 2% higher than December 2025.
See More
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- Jobs Data Expectations: The February payroll report is set to be released, with a consensus forecast of 50,000 new jobs, although some experts suggest a potential negative number, indicating a cautious outlook on economic recovery.
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- Biotech Industry Challenges: The biotech ETF and related indices have declined by 6.2% and 11% respectively since January highs, reflecting pressures from recent FDA rejections, prompting investors to closely monitor market reactions.
See More
CarMax Under Investigation Following Poor Q2 Results
- Declining Financial Performance: CarMax's Q2 FY2026 results, announced on September 25, 2025, revealed a 5.4% drop in retail unit sales, a 6.3% decline in comparable store sales, and a 2.2% decrease in wholesale units, with net earnings per diluted share falling to $0.64 from $0.85 a year ago, indicating significant sales pressure and declining profitability.
- Significant Net Income Drop: The company's net income for the second quarter was approximately $95.4 million, down 28.1% from $132.8 million in the prior year, raising concerns among investors about the company's future profitability and potentially impacting stock performance.
- Executive Departure Impact: On November 6, 2025, CarMax unexpectedly announced the departure of its CEO and issued a weak preliminary outlook for Q3, which may further undermine market confidence in the company's management and lead to shareholder concerns regarding corporate governance.
- Securities Litigation Risk: CarMax and its executives are facing a class action lawsuit for failing to disclose material information as required by securities laws, with KSF investigating whether the company's officers breached their fiduciary duties to shareholders, potentially exposing the company to legal and financial risks.
See More
CarMax Launches AI-Powered Vehicle Shopping App
- App Innovation: CarMax's newly launched app features an AI-powered search engine that enhances the vehicle shopping experience, allowing customers to conduct more personalized searches based on their specific needs, which is expected to attract more user engagement.
- Competitive Edge: Similar to Carvana's 'Shaqbot', this app leverages generative AI technology combined with CarMax's inventory information to streamline the car buying and selling process, thereby enhancing customer satisfaction and market competitiveness.
- Market Reaction: Following the app's launch, CarMax shares turned positive on Friday, indicating a favorable response from investors towards the company's innovative initiatives, which may improve its market performance.
- Strategic Implications: By introducing this app, CarMax not only enhances its technological capabilities but also demonstrates its commitment to digital transformation, aiming to improve customer experience and drive future growth through technological innovation.
See More
CarMax Launches First ChatGPT App for Car Shopping
- Pioneering App: CarMax becomes the first U.S. auto retailer to launch a car shopping app in the ChatGPT app store, providing access to over 45,000 vehicles nationwide, thereby meeting consumer demand for AI-driven shopping experiences and enhancing customer satisfaction and market competitiveness.
- Convenient Shopping Experience: The new app allows users to search for cars using natural language, quickly obtaining vehicle information and offers, simplifying the car buying process, and is expected to attract more users to the CarMax platform, driving sales growth.
- AI Technology Integration: CarMax's embedded virtual assistant Skye manages tens of thousands of customer conversations weekly, and by combining this with ChatGPT's conversational capabilities, it further enhances customer service quality and strengthens brand loyalty.
- Market Expansion Strategy: CarMax plans to expand within the AI ecosystem by evaluating user engagement, showcasing its innovative leadership in the auto retail industry, and aims to enhance customer experience and market share through technology.
See More
Automakers Warn of Rising Prices Due to Tariffs
- Tariff Impact Intensifies: Sonic Automotive President Jeff Dyke warns that unsustainable tariff costs will lead automakers to either raise prices or cut features, indicating a pressing urgency within the industry and potential future price pressures.
- Limited Price Fluctuations: Despite only a 1% increase in vehicle prices since the Trump administration's tariffs, analyst Jessica Caldwell notes a surge in used vehicle demand as consumers anticipate new car price hikes, highlighting market sensitivity to pricing changes.
- Toyota's Financial Strain: Toyota reported a 25% drop in net income for the first nine months of fiscal year 2026, with tariffs costing approximately 1.2 trillion yen (around $8 billion), underscoring the significant impact of tariffs on major automakers and their profitability.
- Future Production Adjustments: Toyota may consider relocating some production back to the U.S. based on the outcomes of U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade negotiations, particularly for its Tacoma pickup made in Mexico, reflecting the company's strategic flexibility in addressing tariff challenges.
See More
