AIG Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations Despite Premium Miss
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 10 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AIG?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Beat: AIG reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.96, exceeding Wall Street's consensus of $1.90 and up from $1.30 a year ago, indicating a significant improvement in profitability.
- Investment Income Growth: The total net investment income for Q4 reached $954 million, up from $872 million last year, reflecting successful investment management and enhancing overall financial stability.
- Insurance Premiums Under Pressure: Despite the General Insurance unit's underwriting income rising 48% to $670 million, net premiums written of $6.04 billion fell short of the Visible Alpha consensus of $6.09 billion, highlighting increased market competition.
- Strong Capital Returns: Adjusted pretax income climbed to $1.42 billion from $1.08 billion a year ago, with core operating return on equity rising from 9.1% to 11.7%, demonstrating effective capital management.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy AIG?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on AIG
Wall Street analysts forecast AIG stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
12 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 77.620
Low
80.00
Averages
85.93
High
96.00
Current: 77.620
Low
80.00
Averages
85.93
High
96.00
About AIG
American International Group, Inc. is a global insurance company. It provides insurance solutions that help businesses and individuals in over 200 countries and jurisdictions protect their assets and manage risks through its operations, licenses and authorizations and network partners. Its segment includes General Insurance and Other Operations. General Insurance business includes its three segments, including North America Commercial, International Commercial and Global Personal. The North America Commercial consists of insurance businesses in the United States, Canada and Bermuda. The International Commercial consists of insurance businesses in Japan, the United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean and China. The North America and International Commercial segment products include property and short tail, casualty, financial lines and global specialty. Global Personal segment products include global accident and health and personal lines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Concerns Rise Over Oil Tanker Sinking Risks in Gulf
- Environmental Catastrophe Risk: Global insurers and shipping companies are alarmed by the potential environmental disaster from an oil tanker sinking in the Persian Gulf, particularly given the region's lack of advanced cleanup technology, which could lead to severe ecological damage and economic losses.
- Surging Insurance Costs: Amid missile threats, shipping companies are facing insurance costs for hull, machinery, and cargo that have surged to 4-6 times previous rates, indicating the market's heightened sensitivity to potential risks, which could impact profitability in the shipping industry.
- Government Support Commitment: President Trump's commitment to insure tankers and facilitate commerce has somewhat alleviated market concerns, yet the current $20 billion reinsurance facility only covers hull and cargo, excluding essential pollution risk coverage.
- Lack of Response Mechanism: The absence of insurance support for environmental risks may continue to obstruct commerce in the Persian Gulf, reminiscent of the terrorism risk faced by the U.S. post-9/11, highlighting the urgent need for effective risk management frameworks.
See More
Goldman Sachs Analysts Warn of Market Risks
- Market Risk Warning: Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer highlights that current equity market risk premia have fallen to levels not seen since the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis, indicating a need for caution despite improved market sentiment.
- AIG Financial Performance: American International Group (AIG) reported net premiums of $23.9 billion in 2024 and $23.8 billion in 2025, with a 48% year-over-year increase in general insurance underwriting income in Q4 2025, showcasing strong earnings growth potential.
- AIG Shareholder Returns: AIG returned $6.8 billion to shareholders over the past year, with $5.8 billion in share repurchases and $1 billion in dividends, demonstrating the company's capital management flexibility and commitment to shareholder value.
- Alcon Growth Outlook: Alcon achieved $2.7 billion in sales in Q4 2025, a 9% year-over-year increase, slightly below estimates, yet analysts remain optimistic about future growth, projecting a 27% increase in share price by 2027.
See More
VERTIV HOLDINGS, LUMENTUM HOLDINGS, COHERENT, AND ECHOSTAR SET TO ENTER S&P 500
New Additions to S&P 500: Vertiv Holdings, Lumentum Holdings, Coherent, and Echosstar are set to join the S&P 500 index.
Market Impact: The inclusion of these companies may influence market dynamics and investor strategies as they become part of a major stock index.
See More
VERTIV HOLDINGS, LUMENTUM HOLDINGS, COHERENT, AND ECHOSTAR TO BE ADDED TO S&P 500; ADDITIONAL COMPANIES TO ENTER S&P 100, S&P MIDCAP 400, AND S&P SMALLCAP 600
New Additions to S&P 500: Vert Holdings, Lumentum Holdings, CohereNT, and EchoStar are set to join the S&P 500 index.
Other Index Changes: Additional companies will be added to the S&P 100, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600 indices.
See More
Vertiv, Lumentum, Coherent, and EchoStar Set to Enter S&P 500
Index Changes: S&P Dow Jones Indices is making significant adjustments to its major stock indexes this month.
New Additions: The changes include the addition of several technology and infrastructure companies.
Removals: Some well-known companies are being removed from the indexes as part of this reshuffling.
Market Impact: These adjustments may influence market dynamics and investor strategies moving forward.
See More
Goldman Sachs Upgrades AIG to Buy Amid AI Impact Assessment
- Rating Changes: Goldman Sachs upgraded American International Group (AIG) to Buy, reflecting anticipated peer-high EPS growth and improving ROE over the coming years, which is expected to drive stock price appreciation and enhance investor confidence.
- Market Reaction: AIG shares rose 2.65% to $80.38 in pre-market trading on Thursday, indicating a positive market response to Goldman’s new rating, potentially attracting more investor interest in the stock.
- Allstate Rating Downgrade: Conversely, Goldman downgraded Allstate (ALL) to Neutral, considering increasing near-term fundamental risks and the impact of AI on the insurance sector, suggesting a cautious outlook on its future performance.
- Industry Outlook: Goldman noted that commercial insurers and reinsurers are best positioned against AI risks, indicating that these companies are expected to outperform other insurance brokers in the near term, reflecting differing market perceptions of AI technology's potential impact.
See More
Concerns Rise Over Oil Tanker Sinking Risks in Gulf
- Environmental Catastrophe Risk: Global insurers and shipping companies are alarmed by the potential environmental disaster from an oil tanker sinking in the Persian Gulf, particularly given the region's lack of advanced cleanup technology, which could lead to severe ecological damage and economic losses.
- Surging Insurance Costs: Amid missile threats, shipping companies are facing insurance costs for hull, machinery, and cargo that have surged to 4-6 times previous rates, indicating the market's heightened sensitivity to potential risks, which could impact profitability in the shipping industry.
- Government Support Commitment: President Trump's commitment to insure tankers and facilitate commerce has somewhat alleviated market concerns, yet the current $20 billion reinsurance facility only covers hull and cargo, excluding essential pollution risk coverage.
- Lack of Response Mechanism: The absence of insurance support for environmental risks may continue to obstruct commerce in the Persian Gulf, reminiscent of the terrorism risk faced by the U.S. post-9/11, highlighting the urgent need for effective risk management frameworks.
See More
Goldman Sachs Analysts Warn of Market Risks
- Market Risk Warning: Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer highlights that current equity market risk premia have fallen to levels not seen since the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis, indicating a need for caution despite improved market sentiment.
- AIG Financial Performance: American International Group (AIG) reported net premiums of $23.9 billion in 2024 and $23.8 billion in 2025, with a 48% year-over-year increase in general insurance underwriting income in Q4 2025, showcasing strong earnings growth potential.
- AIG Shareholder Returns: AIG returned $6.8 billion to shareholders over the past year, with $5.8 billion in share repurchases and $1 billion in dividends, demonstrating the company's capital management flexibility and commitment to shareholder value.
- Alcon Growth Outlook: Alcon achieved $2.7 billion in sales in Q4 2025, a 9% year-over-year increase, slightly below estimates, yet analysts remain optimistic about future growth, projecting a 27% increase in share price by 2027.
See More
VERTIV HOLDINGS, LUMENTUM HOLDINGS, COHERENT, AND ECHOSTAR SET TO ENTER S&P 500
New Additions to S&P 500: Vertiv Holdings, Lumentum Holdings, Coherent, and Echosstar are set to join the S&P 500 index.
Market Impact: The inclusion of these companies may influence market dynamics and investor strategies as they become part of a major stock index.
See More
VERTIV HOLDINGS, LUMENTUM HOLDINGS, COHERENT, AND ECHOSTAR TO BE ADDED TO S&P 500; ADDITIONAL COMPANIES TO ENTER S&P 100, S&P MIDCAP 400, AND S&P SMALLCAP 600
New Additions to S&P 500: Vert Holdings, Lumentum Holdings, CohereNT, and EchoStar are set to join the S&P 500 index.
Other Index Changes: Additional companies will be added to the S&P 100, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600 indices.
See More
Vertiv, Lumentum, Coherent, and EchoStar Set to Enter S&P 500
Index Changes: S&P Dow Jones Indices is making significant adjustments to its major stock indexes this month.
New Additions: The changes include the addition of several technology and infrastructure companies.
Removals: Some well-known companies are being removed from the indexes as part of this reshuffling.
Market Impact: These adjustments may influence market dynamics and investor strategies moving forward.
See More
Goldman Sachs Upgrades AIG to Buy Amid AI Impact Assessment
- Rating Changes: Goldman Sachs upgraded American International Group (AIG) to Buy, reflecting anticipated peer-high EPS growth and improving ROE over the coming years, which is expected to drive stock price appreciation and enhance investor confidence.
- Market Reaction: AIG shares rose 2.65% to $80.38 in pre-market trading on Thursday, indicating a positive market response to Goldman’s new rating, potentially attracting more investor interest in the stock.
- Allstate Rating Downgrade: Conversely, Goldman downgraded Allstate (ALL) to Neutral, considering increasing near-term fundamental risks and the impact of AI on the insurance sector, suggesting a cautious outlook on its future performance.
- Industry Outlook: Goldman noted that commercial insurers and reinsurers are best positioned against AI risks, indicating that these companies are expected to outperform other insurance brokers in the near term, reflecting differing market perceptions of AI technology's potential impact.
See More
