MUSA

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Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

High

390.710

Open

381.500

VWAP

388.49

Vol

265.52K

Mkt Cap

7.54B

Low

378.090

Amount

103.15M

EV/EBITDA(TTM)

9.26

Total Shares

20.72M

9.34B

EV/OCF(TTM)

11.19

P/S(TTM)

0.45

Murphy USA Inc. is a retailer of gasoline and convenience merchandise with more than 1,760 stores located primarily in the Southwest, Southeast, Midwest and Northeast United States. The Company has one operating segment, which is Marketing. The Marketing segment includes its retail marketing stores and product supply and wholesale assets. The majority of its existing and new-to-industry (NTI) retail gasoline stores operate under the brand names of Murphy USA and Murphy Express. The majority of Murphy USA's stores are located in proximity to Walmart Supercenters. The Company also markets gasoline and other products at standalone stores under the Murphy Express and QuickChek brands. The Company has a network of retail gasoline and convenience stores in approximately 27 states. In addition, it markets fuel to unbranded wholesale customers through a mixture of Company-owned and third-party product distribution terminals and pipeline positions.

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Market Estimates

Earnings Estimates

Revenue

YoY Chg

EPS

YoYChg

FY2026Q1

FY2025Q4

FY2025Q3

4.83B

+6.65%

3.423

+30.16%

4.91B

+4.25%

7.088

-5.53%

5.09B

-2.8%

7.737

+7.47%

Estimates Revision

The market is revising Downward the revenue expectations for Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) for FY2025, with the revenue forecasts being adjusted by -1.29% over the past three months. During the same period, the stock price has changed by -10.29%.

Revenue Estimates for FY2025

Revise Downward

-1.29%

In Past 3 Month

EPS Estimates for FY2025

Revise Downward

-2.02%

In Past 3 Month

Stock Price

Go Down

-10.29%

In Past 3 Month

8 Analyst Rating

10.31% Upside

Wall Street analysts forecast MUSA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MUSA is 430.86 USD with a low forecast of 350.00 USD and a high forecast of 502.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

3 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

10.31% Upside

Current: 390.590

Low

350.00

Averages

430.86

High

502.00

10.31% Upside

Current: 390.590

Low

350.00

Averages

430.86

High

502.00

Jefferies

Buy -> Hold

downgrade

$560 -> $350

2025-08-01

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$560 -> $350

2025-08-01

downgrade

Buy -> Hold

Reason

Jefferies downgraded Murphy USA to Hold from Buy with a price target of $350, down from $560, following the Q2 report. The company's lower customer volumes and cut to its annual EBITDA growth outlook from 6%-7% to below 5% will limit upside to the shares, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says that while Murphy's fuel margins remain elevated, softer in-store trends and a more cautious growth outlook warrant a downgrade.

RBC Capital

Sector Perform

downgrade

$550 -> $502

2025-07-28

Reason

RBC Capital

Price Target

$550 -> $502

2025-07-28

downgrade

Sector Perform

Reason

RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Murphy USA to $502 from $550 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares ahead of its Q2 results. The firm has updated its gas margin forecast, offset by valuation roll-forward to last-twelve-months to Q2 of expected FY27, following the introduction of preliminary FY27 estimates, though it is also reiterating the view that Murphy USA should continue to deliver solid earnings, cash flows, and return of capital, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

KeyBanc

Overweight -> NULL

downgrade

$500 -> $480

2025-07-25

Reason

KeyBanc

Price Target

$500 -> $480

2025-07-25

downgrade

Overweight -> NULL

Reason

KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Murphy USA to $480 from $500 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm's checks and data imply potential downside risk to EPS, and KeyBanc is lowering its Q2 EPS estimate and price target, with the belief that low gas prices are hampering market share.

Raymond James

Outperform -> Market Perform

downgrade

2025-05-09

Reason

Raymond James

Price Target

2025-05-09

downgrade

Outperform -> Market Perform

Reason

Raymond James downgraded Murphy USA to Market Perform from Outperform.

Raymond James

Outperform

Market Perform

downgrade

2025-05-09

Reason

Raymond James

Price Target

2025-05-09

downgrade

Outperform

Market Perform

Reason

Raymond James downgraded Murphy USA to Market Perform from Outperform following the Q1 earnings report. Murphy USA's Q1 results were "disappointing," illustrating some concerns about the pathway for the core business to grow EBITDA, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Some of these challenges are likely transitory, but the duration of the impact is unclear, and Raymond James sees less core EBITDA upside in the near-term.

KeyBanc

Overweight

downgrade

$550 -> $525

2025-05-09

Reason

KeyBanc

Price Target

$550 -> $525

2025-05-09

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Murphy USA to $525 from $550 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes Q1 EPS fell below Street estimates, pressured by a number of factors, including lower-than-expected retail fuel margins. In addition, fuel volumes were lower than expected, due to adverse weather, the Easter shift, the lapping of Leap Day, and a low overall retail fuel price environment. Q2-to-date trends have improved, with fuel volume flat to up slightly and higher retail fuel margins. KeyBanc maintains its positive long-term outlook for Murphy USA and the industry. However, for the next few quarters, it sees headwinds from low gas prices, competition in food, and tough Q2 nicotine comparable sales.

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Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Murphy USA Inc (MUSA.N) is 15.00, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of 14.44. For a more detailed relative valuation and DCF analysis to assess Murphy USA Inc 's fair value, click here.

Forward PE

The forward P/E ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future earnings per share over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average PE

14.44

Current PE

15.00

Overvalued PE

17.63

Undervalued PE

11.25

Forward EV/EBITDA

The forward EV/EBITDA ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's enterprise value (EV) by its estimated future earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

9.11

Current EV/EBITDA

9.44

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

10.73

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

7.49

Forward PS

The forward P/S ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future sales (or revenue) per share over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average PS

0.32

Current PS

0.36

Overvalued PS

0.41

Undervalued PS

0.23