Implications of Recent Analyst Sentiment for Commvault Systems' Evolving Narrative

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

CVLT.O-0.29%

Source: Yahoo Finance

Updated: Nov 22 2025

0mins

Source: Yahoo Finance

Fair Value Estimate Adjustment: Commvault Systems' Fair Value Estimate has been slightly revised downward from $194.70 to $193.70, reflecting ongoing business strengths alongside new short-term uncertainties.
Analyst Sentiment: RBC Capital has lowered its price target for Commvault from $217 to $167 after a quarterly earnings miss, highlighting concerns over shorter contract durations and a lower margin outlook.
Product Innovations: Commvault has launched its Cloud Unity platform, enhancing data security and cyber resilience, and has expanded its partnership with Lumen Technologies to improve backup and recovery solutions.
Financial Metrics Update: Revenue growth projections have increased slightly, while the future P/E ratio has declined, indicating a lower valuation multiple, alongside minor adjustments in net profit margin and discount rate.

CVLT.O

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Intellectia

Analyst Views on CVLT

Wall Street analysts forecast CVLT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVLT is 191.50 USD with a low forecast of 144.00 USD and a high forecast of 220.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

12 Analyst Rating

9 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 121.340

Low

144.00

Averages

191.50

High

220.00

Current: 121.340

Low

144.00

Averages

191.50

High

220.00

Oppenheimer

Param Singh

Outperform

initiated

$210 -> $200

2025-11-10

Reason

Oppenheimer

Param Singh

Price Target

$210 -> $200

2025-11-10

initiated

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer analyst Param Singh assumed coverage of Commvault with an Outperform rating with a price target of $200, down from $210. The firm's bullish stance looks at Commvault beyond the near-term revenue headwind, and is predicated upon its long-term view that Commvault is a beneficiary of the rising importance of data, which is driving backup storage TAM; benefiting from growing data security breaches and ransomware attacks that are creating new revenue opportunities; and a leading provider of BaaS and DRaaS offerings, and will benefit from the industry shift to as-a-service platforms. Oppenheimer believes these drivers will result in strong new customer additions, existing customer expansion activity, continued market share gains, and 35%-40% SaaS ARR growth over the next three years.

RBC Capital

Dan Bergstrom

Sector Perform

downgrade

$217 -> $167

2025-10-29

Reason

RBC Capital

Dan Bergstrom

Price Target

$217 -> $167

2025-10-29

downgrade

Sector Perform

Reason

RBC Capital analyst Dan Bergstrom lowered the firm's price target on Commvault to $167 from $217 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares after its Q2 earnings miss. The quarter was largely positive, though shorter term contract duration and the accompanying lower margin outlook are likely to be more in focus and weigh on the stock over the near term, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Truist

Junaid Siddiqui

Buy

downgrade

$230 -> $210

2025-10-29

Reason

Truist

Junaid Siddiqui

Price Target

$230 -> $210

2025-10-29

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Truist analyst Junaid Siddiqui lowered the firm's price target on Commvault to $210 from $230 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company delivered solid Q2 results, coming in above the high end of guidance on revenue and ARR, though a duration headwind on term license caused the stock to fall about 16% as that filtered through the P&L, causing 200bp of margin compression, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

KeyBanc

Overweight

downgrade

$225 -> $185

2025-10-29

Reason

KeyBanc

Price Target

$225 -> $185

2025-10-29

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Commvault to $185 from $225 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm cites the solid Q2 top-line beat and FY26 guide above, though with some margin trade-off. KeyBanc remains positive given the NNARR outperformance and best-in-class growth in the metric for 2025 relative to software peers, though have some increased caution the commentary of high competition with compressing margins may feed the bear concern the legacy replacement market is late innings.

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About CVLT

Commvault Systems, Inc. is a provider of cyber resilience and data protection solutions. The Company’s cyber resilience platform combines data security and rapid recovery at enterprise scale across any workload. The Company provides these products and services for their data across many types of environments, including on-premises, hybrid and multi-cloud. Its offerings are delivered via self-managed software, software-as-a-service (SaaS), integrated appliances, or managed by partners. Its Commvault Cloud offerings are organized into three packages, such as Operational Recovery, Autonomous Recovery and Cyber Recovery. Its Operational Recovery provides backup, verifiable recovery, and cost-optimized cloud workload mobility, helping to ensure data availability and granular recovery, even across multiple clouds. In addition, it also provides customers with a range of offerings, including Cleanroom Recovery, HyperScale X, Air Gap Protect, Cloud Rewind, Clumio Backtrack and Compliance.

About the author

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Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.