Should You Buy Commvault Systems Inc (CVLT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY now for a beginner long-term investor. The stock has been heavily sold off on guidance caution rather than collapsing fundamentals, leaving it technically oversold and fundamentally still growing (19% YoY revenue; EPS +67% YoY). With Wall Street still broadly positive (multiple Buy/Outperform ratings) and notable net congressional buying (6 buys, 0 sells), CVLT looks attractive at current levels for a long-term position even if the next few sessions remain choppy.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bearish but stretched: RSI(6)=19.18 signals extreme oversold conditions, often associated with short-term snapback potential. However, momentum is still deteriorating (MACD histogram -3.169 and negatively expanding) and moving averages are firmly bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5), confirming the broader downtrend after the sharp selloff. Price is below the stated S1 support (92.903) with the next support at S2 (82.274); near-term resistance is the pivot around 110.108. Net: technically oversold (good for entry timing) but trend-following signals are still negative.
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend: price targets were cut across multiple firms in January (e.g., Guggenheim $200->$175, Truist $210->$175, Oppenheimer $200->$180, DA Davidson $220->$185, Piper $186->$155), largely reflecting higher uncertainty, model transition concerns, and broader software multiple compression. Despite target cuts, ratings remain predominantly positive (Buy/Overweight/Outperform). Wall Street pros: durable cyber-resilience demand, ARR growth potential (mid-to-high teens cited), platform transition to SaaS, and perceived undervaluation after the selloff. Cons: guidance uncertainty/model transition optics, term-license duration/composition concerns, and sector-wide multiple pressure tied to rate sensitivity and AI-driven competitive fears.
Wall Street analysts forecast CVLT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVLT is 182.27 USD with a low forecast of 144 USD and a high forecast of 220 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Wall Street analysts forecast CVLT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVLT is 182.27 USD with a low forecast of 144 USD and a high forecast of 220 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Current: 87.500
Current: 87.500
