Iran Conflict Drives Crude Oil Prices Higher
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 05 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Crude Price Surge: The conflict with Iran has driven WTI crude prices up nearly 30% this year to around $75 per barrel, primarily due to Iran's attempts to halt oil flow from the Middle East, potentially tightening global supplies.
- Increased Market Uncertainty: Iran's threats to attack the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil supply passes, could lead to prices soaring above $100 per barrel if the situation escalates, posing significant risks for investors.
- Positive Outlook for Oil Giants: ExxonMobil anticipates a 13% annual earnings growth by 2030 at an average oil price of $65, leveraging its industry-leading cost-saving initiatives, while Chevron expects over 10% free cash flow growth at $70 oil, indicating strong growth potential.
- Focus on Safe Stocks: Given the current market uncertainties, investors should consider large oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, which can benefit from rising oil prices while maintaining profitability even if prices decline.
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Analyst Views on XOM
Wall Street analysts forecast XOM stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 161.130
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
Current: 161.130
Low
114.00
Averages
132.17
High
158.00
About XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation is an energy provider and chemical manufacturer. The Company’s principal business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas; the manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and a wide variety of specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and other new business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima systems, carbon materials, and lithium. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments manufacture and sell petroleum products and petrochemicals. Energy Products segment includes fuels, aromatics, and catalysts and licensing. Chemical Products segment consists of olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. Specialty Products segment includes finished lubricants, basestocks and waxes, synthetics, and elastomers and resins.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Project Implementation: The FPSO will be spread-moored in approximately 1,750 meters of water and will provide roughly two million barrels of condensate storage capacity, with successful implementation significantly supporting ExxonMobil's long-term energy development strategy.
- Local Development: SBM Offshore plans to advance local content development by engaging local fabrication resources and integrating Guyanese engineers into project delivery and operational teams, leveraging experience gained from FPSOs like Liza Destiny to enhance project delivery capabilities.
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- Peace Plan Overview: President Trump's proposed 15-point peace plan aims to address the ongoing conflicts in Iran and the Middle East, and while details remain unclear, the market is optimistic, viewing it as a potential signal for de-escalation.
- Negotiation Dynamics: Trump reiterated that the U.S. is in negotiations with Iran, despite Tehran denying direct talks with Washington, creating a contradictory narrative that raises market concerns about future developments.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement of Trump's peace plan, Asian stock markets surged, particularly in South Korea, while European indices are also expected to open higher, reflecting investor expectations for improved geopolitical conditions.
- Corporate Moves: Meta is granting stock options to key leaders to retain talent amid increasing pressure in the artificial intelligence sector, although CEO Mark Zuckerberg is not included in this plan, indicating potential implications for the company's long-term strategic direction.
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- Negotiation Dynamics: Trump stated in the Oval Office that the U.S. and Iran are 'in negotiations right now,' despite Iran's denial of direct talks, creating confusion among investors regarding the Middle East situation, which could impact market sentiment.
- Peace Plan Delivery: According to The New York Times, the U.S. has sent a 15-point peace plan to Iran through Pakistan, aiming to facilitate negotiations between the warring parties, which could provide a new opportunity for conflict resolution.
- Military Deployment Preparations: Concurrently, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is preparing to deploy about 3,000 soldiers from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, a military move that could escalate regional tensions and further impact global markets.
- Global Energy Emergency: The Philippines has become the first country to declare a 'national energy emergency' due to the ongoing conflict, indicating that the conflict poses a growing threat to global energy supply chains, potentially leading to fluctuations in international oil prices.
See More
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- Surge in Energy Prices: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant rise in oil and gas prices, with ExxonMobil and Chevron seeing stock increases of 2.54% and 0.77% respectively, making them top picks for long-term investors.
- Integrated Value Chain: Both Exxon and Chevron operate across the entire energy value chain, including upstream production, midstream transportation, and downstream refining, which helps stabilize income during oil price fluctuations and reduces investment risk.
- Strong Financial Health: With debt-to-equity ratios around 0.2x and 0.25x, both companies have the flexibility to incur debt during downturns, allowing them to maintain operations and dividends, thus ensuring returns for investors.
- Consistent Dividend Yields: Exxon offers a dividend yield of 2.5% while Chevron provides 3.5%, with both companies having increased their dividends for over 25 years, demonstrating their commitment to shareholders and financial stability.
See More
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- Business Advantage Analysis: Both ExxonMobil and Chevron benefit from high oil prices in upstream production, but they also diversify their income through midstream transportation and downstream chemical and refining operations, enhancing their ability to withstand oil price volatility.
- Financial Stability: With low debt-to-equity ratios (approximately 0.2x for Exxon and 0.25x for Chevron), both companies can increase debt during industry downturns, allowing them to continue supporting their operations and dividends, ensuring stable returns for investors.
- Dividend Appeal: Exxon offers a dividend yield of 2.5% and Chevron 3.5%, both having increased dividends for over 25 years, making them attractive for income-seeking investors, especially in the context of rising oil prices.
See More
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- Significant Oil Price Drop: Oil prices fell over 5% after President Trump announced ongoing negotiations with Iran, with Brent crude futures declining nearly 6% to $98.31 per barrel and WTI down 5% to $87.65, reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Negotiation Dynamics Shift: Trump indicated he had retracted threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure based on negotiation progress, which could alter market expectations for future oil prices, despite Iran denying direct talks with the U.S.
- Supply Disruption Impact: Goldman Sachs highlighted that the current disruption in oil supplies represents the largest shock in decades, significantly affecting global supply shares and increasing market uncertainty, prompting investors to hedge against potential worst-case scenarios.
- Geopolitical Risk Premium: According to Goldman, short-term crude price movements are driven more by shifts in perceived worst-case probabilities rather than changes in the fundamental outlook, with expectations that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize over a four-week period, further influencing oil price trends.
See More
SBM Offshore Secures ExxonMobil Contracts for Longtail FPSO
- Contract Signing: SBM Offshore has secured contracts with ExxonMobil Guyana for front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies related to a floating production, storage, and offloading vessel (FPSO), marking the release of funds to initiate FEED activities and demonstrating mutual trust and commitment in their collaboration.
- Production Capacity: The FPSO is designed to handle up to 1.2 billion standard cubic feet (bscf) of gas per day and is expected to produce approximately 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) of condensate, addressing the market's demand for high-efficiency gas handling capabilities and enhancing SBM's competitive position in the sector.
- Project Implementation: The FPSO will be spread-moored in approximately 1,750 meters of water and will provide roughly two million barrels of condensate storage capacity, with successful implementation significantly supporting ExxonMobil's long-term energy development strategy.
- Local Development: SBM Offshore plans to advance local content development by engaging local fabrication resources and integrating Guyanese engineers into project delivery and operational teams, leveraging experience gained from FPSOs like Liza Destiny to enhance project delivery capabilities.
See More
Trump's 15-Point Peace Plan Sparks Market Optimism
- Peace Plan Overview: President Trump's proposed 15-point peace plan aims to address the ongoing conflicts in Iran and the Middle East, and while details remain unclear, the market is optimistic, viewing it as a potential signal for de-escalation.
- Negotiation Dynamics: Trump reiterated that the U.S. is in negotiations with Iran, despite Tehran denying direct talks with Washington, creating a contradictory narrative that raises market concerns about future developments.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement of Trump's peace plan, Asian stock markets surged, particularly in South Korea, while European indices are also expected to open higher, reflecting investor expectations for improved geopolitical conditions.
- Corporate Moves: Meta is granting stock options to key leaders to retain talent amid increasing pressure in the artificial intelligence sector, although CEO Mark Zuckerberg is not included in this plan, indicating potential implications for the company's long-term strategic direction.
See More
Trump Claims US and Iran Are in Negotiations Amid Conflict
- Negotiation Dynamics: Trump stated in the Oval Office that the U.S. and Iran are 'in negotiations right now,' despite Iran's denial of direct talks, creating confusion among investors regarding the Middle East situation, which could impact market sentiment.
- Peace Plan Delivery: According to The New York Times, the U.S. has sent a 15-point peace plan to Iran through Pakistan, aiming to facilitate negotiations between the warring parties, which could provide a new opportunity for conflict resolution.
- Military Deployment Preparations: Concurrently, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is preparing to deploy about 3,000 soldiers from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, a military move that could escalate regional tensions and further impact global markets.
- Global Energy Emergency: The Philippines has become the first country to declare a 'national energy emergency' due to the ongoing conflict, indicating that the conflict poses a growing threat to global energy supply chains, potentially leading to fluctuations in international oil prices.
See More
Middle East Conflict Drives Oil and Gas Price Surge
- Surge in Energy Prices: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant rise in oil and gas prices, with ExxonMobil and Chevron seeing stock increases of 2.54% and 0.77% respectively, making them top picks for long-term investors.
- Integrated Value Chain: Both Exxon and Chevron operate across the entire energy value chain, including upstream production, midstream transportation, and downstream refining, which helps stabilize income during oil price fluctuations and reduces investment risk.
- Strong Financial Health: With debt-to-equity ratios around 0.2x and 0.25x, both companies have the flexibility to incur debt during downturns, allowing them to maintain operations and dividends, thus ensuring returns for investors.
- Consistent Dividend Yields: Exxon offers a dividend yield of 2.5% while Chevron provides 3.5%, with both companies having increased their dividends for over 25 years, demonstrating their commitment to shareholders and financial stability.
See More
Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Prices Up, Investors Must Prepare
- Rising Oil Prices Context: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a significant rise in oil and natural gas prices, drawing attention from investors in the energy sector, particularly those looking to hold investments long-term while considering the risks of future price declines.
- Business Advantage Analysis: Both ExxonMobil and Chevron benefit from high oil prices in upstream production, but they also diversify their income through midstream transportation and downstream chemical and refining operations, enhancing their ability to withstand oil price volatility.
- Financial Stability: With low debt-to-equity ratios (approximately 0.2x for Exxon and 0.25x for Chevron), both companies can increase debt during industry downturns, allowing them to continue supporting their operations and dividends, ensuring stable returns for investors.
- Dividend Appeal: Exxon offers a dividend yield of 2.5% and Chevron 3.5%, both having increased dividends for over 25 years, making them attractive for income-seeking investors, especially in the context of rising oil prices.
See More
Oil Prices Drop Over 5% Amid U.S.-Iran Negotiations
- Significant Oil Price Drop: Oil prices fell over 5% after President Trump announced ongoing negotiations with Iran, with Brent crude futures declining nearly 6% to $98.31 per barrel and WTI down 5% to $87.65, reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Negotiation Dynamics Shift: Trump indicated he had retracted threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure based on negotiation progress, which could alter market expectations for future oil prices, despite Iran denying direct talks with the U.S.
- Supply Disruption Impact: Goldman Sachs highlighted that the current disruption in oil supplies represents the largest shock in decades, significantly affecting global supply shares and increasing market uncertainty, prompting investors to hedge against potential worst-case scenarios.
- Geopolitical Risk Premium: According to Goldman, short-term crude price movements are driven more by shifts in perceived worst-case probabilities rather than changes in the fundamental outlook, with expectations that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize over a four-week period, further influencing oil price trends.
See More
