Tesla and Rivian's Trillion-Dollar Potential
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy TSLA?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Tesla's Market Opportunity: Tesla has achieved a $1 trillion market cap, primarily driven by the success of the Model Y, which has been a best-seller globally for several years, boosting Tesla's sales and laying the groundwork for future market expansion.
- Future Growth Drivers: Tesla plans to launch the Cybercab, a vehicle without pedals or a steering wheel, with mass production expected to begin this year; analyst Dan Ives believes this robotaxi market opportunity could add another $1 trillion to Tesla's market cap, showcasing its leadership in the EV sector.
- Rivian's Growth Potential: Rivian currently has a market cap of about $20 billion, and while it has not yet achieved mass production, the upcoming R2 SUV could serve as a turning point for growth, similar to the impact of the Model Y on Tesla, potentially pushing its valuation towards $1 trillion.
- Strategic Investment and Partnerships: Uber has committed to investing up to $1.25 billion in Rivian to purchase R2 SUVs for its robotaxi business, providing Rivian with financial backing and potentially accelerating its competitiveness in the electric vehicle market.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to rise
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 388.900
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 388.900
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Tesla's Electric Vehicle Sales Continue Decline
- Sales Performance Decline: Tesla delivered 1.79 million EVs in 2024, a 1% drop, and further decreased by 9% to 1.63 million in 2025, with the EV business accounting for over 70% of total revenue, indicating significant financial drag due to sluggish sales.
- Profitability Impact: The company's automotive revenue fell by 10% in 2025, leading to a 3% decline in total revenue, while earnings per share crashed by 47% due to price cuts aimed at attracting customers, highlighting the pressure on profitability amid fierce competition.
- First Quarter Delivery Data: In Q1 2026, Tesla delivered 358,023 EVs, below Wall Street's estimate of 370,000, yet representing a 6% year-over-year increase, which could bolster investor confidence if the subsequent earnings report reflects overall revenue growth.
- Future Product Strategy: Musk plans to launch the Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot by the end of 2026, which may generate revenue in the long term, but could negatively impact short-term financial results, necessitating close monitoring of future developments.
See More
Tesla Seeks Semiconductor Engineers for Terafab AI Chip Complex in Taiwan
- Hiring Initiative: Tesla has posted job openings on its website, seeking to hire multiple senior process engineers and other roles for its Terafab AI chip factory in Taiwan, indicating a significant expansion in semiconductor production.
- Factory Scale: The company describes Terafab as an unprecedented vertically integrated semiconductor factory that will house logic, memory, packaging, testing, and lithography mask production, optimized for rapid iteration and maximum compute density per square foot.
- Technical Focus: The roles will involve building processes across three distinct chip families, including edge-inference processors, space-hardened chips for orbital satellites, and high-bandwidth memory, showcasing Tesla's ambition in the high-end semiconductor sector.
- Manufacturing Processes: The job descriptions reference 2nm-class chip dimensions and multiple core front-end fabrication steps such as lithography, etching, thin films, and chemical mechanical planarization, indicating Tesla's forward-looking approach to chip manufacturing technology.
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- Core Business Stability: Alphabet's search segment achieved double-digit growth in 2025, with similar expectations for 2026, despite a slight decline in network revenue; this stable structure supports future investments and growth initiatives.
- Hidden Value of YouTube: YouTube generated over $40 billion in ad revenue last year, with total revenue exceeding $60 billion when including subscriptions, establishing itself as the largest streaming service globally and highlighting its critical role in the modern media landscape.
- Rapid Growth of Google Cloud: Google Cloud experienced a 48% revenue increase in the latest quarter, reaching $17.7 billion, with an operating margin nearing 30%, showcasing its potential as a growth engine for Alphabet, particularly amid rising demand for AI infrastructure.
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See More
Rivian Automotive Faces Major Growth Catalysts
- Significant Market Potential: Rivian Automotive's shares have dropped over 15% since the beginning of 2026, but the upcoming R2 SUV, priced under $50,000, is expected to compete with Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y, potentially boosting sales and market share significantly.
- Accelerated AI Investment: Rivian is aggressively investing in artificial intelligence to advance its autonomous driving capabilities, and despite pushing back profitability targets, the $1.25 billion deal with Uber for R2 SUVs is expected to drive sales and enhance company valuation.
- Valuation Discrepancy: With a market cap of $21 billion, Rivian's stock trades at just 3.5 times sales compared to Tesla's 13.5 times, indicating significant undervaluation potential, and as R2 deliveries ramp up, this discount is expected to narrow.
- Competitive Market Landscape: The strong demand for SUVs positions Rivian's R2 SUV to fill the gap in the affordable EV market left by Tesla, and over the next few years, Rivian's production and demand are likely to scale, leading to sustainable growth.
See More
Analysis of Alphabet's Future Growth Potential
- Core Business Stability: Alphabet's search business is projected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025, while subscription platforms and devices have grown over 20%, indicating the company's ability to maintain stability in a rapidly changing market, ensuring future investment and growth potential.
- Advertising Revenue Growth: Alphabet's annual revenue has surpassed $400 billion for the first time, with search revenue hitting $63 billion in Q4, demonstrating the strength of its advertising engine and the enhancement of user engagement through AI-driven features, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Cloud Business Surge: Google Cloud experienced a 48% growth in the most recent quarter, reaching $17.7 billion in revenue with an operating margin nearing 30.1%, showcasing its strong growth potential amid surging demand for AI infrastructure, which could become a major revenue source for Alphabet in the future.
- Hidden Value of YouTube: YouTube's ad revenue exceeds $40 billion, with total revenue from subscriptions potentially reaching $60 billion, making it the largest streaming service globally, highlighting its significance and high-margin growth potential in the modern media landscape.
See More
Rivian Set to Experience Major Growth Catalysts
- Significant Market Potential: Rivian's upcoming R2 SUV, priced under $50,000, is expected to compete with Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y, potentially leading to a substantial increase in sales and driving the company's market valuation higher in the coming years.
- Accelerated AI Investment: Rivian's heavy investment in artificial intelligence, particularly the $1.25 billion deal with Uber, indicates progress in autonomous driving technology, which is anticipated to yield long-term revenue growth for the company.
- Valuation Discrepancy: Despite Rivian's stock currently trading at just 3.5 times sales compared to Tesla's 13.5 times, this significant undervaluation suggests that Rivian's potential value is not fully recognized, with expectations for the gap to narrow as R2 deliveries ramp up.
- Evolving Competitive Landscape: With the imminent delivery of Rivian's R2 SUV, the demand for electric vehicles is set to increase, providing Rivian with an opportunity to establish a strong presence in the competitive SUV market, thereby enhancing brand recognition and market share.
See More
Tesla's Electric Vehicle Sales Continue Decline
- Sales Performance Decline: Tesla delivered 1.79 million EVs in 2024, a 1% drop, and further decreased by 9% to 1.63 million in 2025, with the EV business accounting for over 70% of total revenue, indicating significant financial drag due to sluggish sales.
- Profitability Impact: The company's automotive revenue fell by 10% in 2025, leading to a 3% decline in total revenue, while earnings per share crashed by 47% due to price cuts aimed at attracting customers, highlighting the pressure on profitability amid fierce competition.
- First Quarter Delivery Data: In Q1 2026, Tesla delivered 358,023 EVs, below Wall Street's estimate of 370,000, yet representing a 6% year-over-year increase, which could bolster investor confidence if the subsequent earnings report reflects overall revenue growth.
- Future Product Strategy: Musk plans to launch the Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot by the end of 2026, which may generate revenue in the long term, but could negatively impact short-term financial results, necessitating close monitoring of future developments.
See More
Tesla Seeks Semiconductor Engineers for Terafab AI Chip Complex in Taiwan
- Hiring Initiative: Tesla has posted job openings on its website, seeking to hire multiple senior process engineers and other roles for its Terafab AI chip factory in Taiwan, indicating a significant expansion in semiconductor production.
- Factory Scale: The company describes Terafab as an unprecedented vertically integrated semiconductor factory that will house logic, memory, packaging, testing, and lithography mask production, optimized for rapid iteration and maximum compute density per square foot.
- Technical Focus: The roles will involve building processes across three distinct chip families, including edge-inference processors, space-hardened chips for orbital satellites, and high-bandwidth memory, showcasing Tesla's ambition in the high-end semiconductor sector.
- Manufacturing Processes: The job descriptions reference 2nm-class chip dimensions and multiple core front-end fabrication steps such as lithography, etching, thin films, and chemical mechanical planarization, indicating Tesla's forward-looking approach to chip manufacturing technology.
See More
Analysis of Alphabet's Future Growth Potential
- Core Business Stability: Alphabet's search segment achieved double-digit growth in 2025, with similar expectations for 2026, despite a slight decline in network revenue; this stable structure supports future investments and growth initiatives.
- Hidden Value of YouTube: YouTube generated over $40 billion in ad revenue last year, with total revenue exceeding $60 billion when including subscriptions, establishing itself as the largest streaming service globally and highlighting its critical role in the modern media landscape.
- Rapid Growth of Google Cloud: Google Cloud experienced a 48% revenue increase in the latest quarter, reaching $17.7 billion, with an operating margin nearing 30%, showcasing its potential as a growth engine for Alphabet, particularly amid rising demand for AI infrastructure.
- Investment Opportunities in Other Bets: Alphabet's ventures like Verily Health and Waymo are rapidly evolving, with Verily focusing on AI-driven precision health and Waymo expanding in autonomous driving, indicating significant market potential that could yield long-term benefits for the company.
See More
Rivian Automotive Faces Major Growth Catalysts
- Significant Market Potential: Rivian Automotive's shares have dropped over 15% since the beginning of 2026, but the upcoming R2 SUV, priced under $50,000, is expected to compete with Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y, potentially boosting sales and market share significantly.
- Accelerated AI Investment: Rivian is aggressively investing in artificial intelligence to advance its autonomous driving capabilities, and despite pushing back profitability targets, the $1.25 billion deal with Uber for R2 SUVs is expected to drive sales and enhance company valuation.
- Valuation Discrepancy: With a market cap of $21 billion, Rivian's stock trades at just 3.5 times sales compared to Tesla's 13.5 times, indicating significant undervaluation potential, and as R2 deliveries ramp up, this discount is expected to narrow.
- Competitive Market Landscape: The strong demand for SUVs positions Rivian's R2 SUV to fill the gap in the affordable EV market left by Tesla, and over the next few years, Rivian's production and demand are likely to scale, leading to sustainable growth.
See More
Analysis of Alphabet's Future Growth Potential
- Core Business Stability: Alphabet's search business is projected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025, while subscription platforms and devices have grown over 20%, indicating the company's ability to maintain stability in a rapidly changing market, ensuring future investment and growth potential.
- Advertising Revenue Growth: Alphabet's annual revenue has surpassed $400 billion for the first time, with search revenue hitting $63 billion in Q4, demonstrating the strength of its advertising engine and the enhancement of user engagement through AI-driven features, further solidifying its market leadership.
- Cloud Business Surge: Google Cloud experienced a 48% growth in the most recent quarter, reaching $17.7 billion in revenue with an operating margin nearing 30.1%, showcasing its strong growth potential amid surging demand for AI infrastructure, which could become a major revenue source for Alphabet in the future.
- Hidden Value of YouTube: YouTube's ad revenue exceeds $40 billion, with total revenue from subscriptions potentially reaching $60 billion, making it the largest streaming service globally, highlighting its significance and high-margin growth potential in the modern media landscape.
See More
Rivian Set to Experience Major Growth Catalysts
- Significant Market Potential: Rivian's upcoming R2 SUV, priced under $50,000, is expected to compete with Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y, potentially leading to a substantial increase in sales and driving the company's market valuation higher in the coming years.
- Accelerated AI Investment: Rivian's heavy investment in artificial intelligence, particularly the $1.25 billion deal with Uber, indicates progress in autonomous driving technology, which is anticipated to yield long-term revenue growth for the company.
- Valuation Discrepancy: Despite Rivian's stock currently trading at just 3.5 times sales compared to Tesla's 13.5 times, this significant undervaluation suggests that Rivian's potential value is not fully recognized, with expectations for the gap to narrow as R2 deliveries ramp up.
- Evolving Competitive Landscape: With the imminent delivery of Rivian's R2 SUV, the demand for electric vehicles is set to increase, providing Rivian with an opportunity to establish a strong presence in the competitive SUV market, thereby enhancing brand recognition and market share.
See More
