Taiwan Semiconductor Set to Benefit from Surge in AI Spending
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy TSM?
Source: Fool
- AI Spending Outlook: The four major AI hyperscalers are projected to spend around $650 billion on data center capital expenditures by 2026, indicating strong AI demand, and companies not keeping pace with spending risk falling behind.
- Taiwan Semiconductor's Competitive Edge: Taiwan Semiconductor is viewed as the only company capable of standing out in the AI chip market, with clients like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, ensuring its neutral position and profitability in the AI buildout.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Management at Taiwan Semiconductor anticipates AI chip revenue to grow at nearly a 60% compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2029, reflecting the scale and longevity of the ongoing AI buildout.
- Valuation Reasonableness: Despite the surge in AI spending, Taiwan Semiconductor's stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26, slightly above the S&P 500's 22, indicating it remains a quality investment choice.
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Analyst Views on TSM
Wall Street analysts forecast TSM stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 360.390
Low
63.24
Averages
313.46
High
390.00
Current: 360.390
Low
63.24
Averages
313.46
High
390.00
About TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is a Taiwan-based integrated circuit foundry service provider. The Company is primarily engaged in integrated circuit manufacturing services. It offers advanced process technologies, specialised process solutions, advanced photomask and silicon stacking, and packaging-related technologies, while supporting a comprehensive design ecosystem. The Company's products serve diverse electronic sectors including artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, wired and wireless communications, automotive and industrial equipment, personal computing, information applications, consumer electronics, smart internet of things, and wearable devices.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Market Growth Potential: TSMC projects a 25% CAGR through 2029, implying revenue could approach $237 billion, and if current margins are maintained, annual EPS could rise to $20.61, indicating robust profitability and market demand.
- Price Forecast: With a forward P/E of 26.4, the expected share price by 2029 is $543, representing a 48% increase from current levels, which would elevate market capitalization to over $2.8 trillion, reflecting optimistic market expectations for future growth.
- Industry Leadership: As the world's leading foundry, TSMC produces over 10,000 products annually, with a 48% growth rate in high-performance computing chips projected for 2025, underscoring its critical role in the AI and other high-demand markets.
- Investment Value: TSMC's unique position as a major manufacturer of smartphone and automotive chips, coupled with its pivotal role in the AI market, makes it an ideal investment choice, with expectations to surpass a $3 trillion market cap before 2030, positioning it as one of the most attractive investments today.
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- AI Spending Outlook: The four major AI hyperscalers are projected to spend around $650 billion on data center capital expenditures by 2026, indicating strong AI demand, and companies not keeping pace with spending risk falling behind.
- Taiwan Semiconductor's Competitive Edge: Taiwan Semiconductor is viewed as the only company capable of standing out in the AI chip market, with clients like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, ensuring its neutral position and profitability in the AI buildout.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Management at Taiwan Semiconductor anticipates AI chip revenue to grow at nearly a 60% compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2029, reflecting the scale and longevity of the ongoing AI buildout.
- Valuation Reasonableness: Despite the surge in AI spending, Taiwan Semiconductor's stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26, slightly above the S&P 500's 22, indicating it remains a quality investment choice.
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- Surge in AI Spending: The four major AI hyperscalers are projected to spend around $650 billion on data center capital expenditures by 2026, indicating strong demand for AI technology, which positions Taiwan Semiconductor as a key beneficiary and solidifies its market leadership.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Taiwan Semiconductor's management anticipates that AI chip revenue will grow at nearly a 60% compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2029, highlighting the substantial growth potential and long-term prospects of the AI market, thereby boosting investor confidence in its future performance.
- Clear Competitive Advantage: While companies like Intel and Samsung have some capabilities in chip manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor stands out as the only major option due to its vast production capacity and client base, including Nvidia and AMD, ensuring its neutral position in the AI buildout.
- Reasonable Valuation: With a price-to-earnings ratio of 26, slightly above the S&P 500's 22, Taiwan Semiconductor is still considered a quality investment for playing the AI buildout, reflecting market recognition of its future growth potential.
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- Strong Market Demand: Despite market hopes for a slowdown in AI spending, this trend is expected to persist for several years, particularly as the construction of large data centers takes time, indicating a bullish outlook for companies involved in AI.
- Nvidia's Leading Position: Nvidia (NVDA) has emerged as the top provider of AI computing units since 2023, with its latest Rubin chip architecture requiring four times fewer GPUs for training AI models, further driving customer upgrade demand, and is projected to grow at 65% in fiscal year 2027.
- TSMC's Growth Potential: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), as the world's largest chip foundry, is expected to see nearly 30% revenue growth this year, benefiting from the four major hyperscalers planning to invest around $650 billion in capital expenditures, highlighting its crucial role in AI spending.
- Broadcom's Market Opportunity: Broadcom (AVGO) is experiencing exploding demand for its custom AI chips, with management projecting a doubling of AI chip revenue in the upcoming quarter, positioning itself as a strong alternative to Nvidia in the competitive AI computing landscape.
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- Nvidia's Continued Dominance: Nvidia's launch of the Rubin chip architecture reduces the number of GPUs needed to train AI models by four times, with analysts projecting a 65% growth rate for fiscal year 2027, indicating strong market demand and ongoing technological innovation.
- Taiwan Semiconductor's Significant Gains: As the world's largest chip foundry, Taiwan Semiconductor is expected to see nearly 30% revenue growth this year, benefiting from the $650 billion capital expenditures planned by the four major hyperscalers, positioning it as a neutral beneficiary of AI spending growth.
- Broadcom's Rise: Demand for Broadcom's custom AI chips is surging, with projected revenue from AI chips expected to double in the upcoming quarter, providing a cost-effective alternative to Nvidia and demonstrating its competitive edge in the AI computing landscape.
- Microsoft vs. Alphabet: Microsoft's price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to 24 times, making it an attractive low-cost stock for investors, while Alphabet has rebounded with its Gemini model and rapidly growing cloud platform, showcasing strong prospects in the generative AI space.
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- Market Opening Dynamics: Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures are set to open Sunday evening, with investors closely monitoring upcoming earnings reports and geopolitical developments, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran relations.
- Nasdaq Outperformance: The stock market rose last week, with the Nasdaq leading the way, indicating a strong rebound in tech stocks that may present new investment opportunities for investors.
- Investor Focus: As Nvidia's earnings report approaches, market sentiment is buoyant, with investors hoping for results that exceed expectations, potentially driving further gains in tech stocks.
- Geopolitical Risks: Recent developments between the U.S. and Iran could impact market sentiment, prompting investors to tread carefully in anticipation of potential volatility, especially ahead of key earnings releases.
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