S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Hits 39, Investors Urged to Exercise Caution
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 11 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Market Performance Review: Over the past three years, the S&P 500 has delivered annual gains of 24%, 23%, and 16%, indicating strong bullish momentum, yet the market has faced interruptions from various factors.
- Interest Rate Environment Shift: The Federal Reserve began cutting rates in 2024, reducing borrowing costs for companies and boosting consumer spending, which positively impacts consumer-related businesses, although uncertainties remain.
- Valuation Level Warning: The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 39, nearing historical highs, indicating that stock valuations are extremely elevated, with historical data suggesting potential market pullbacks following such peaks, urging caution among investors.
- Investment Strategy Advice: While the market may experience short-term declines in 2026, investors should focus on reasonable valuations and continue investing in quality stocks to achieve long-term investment gains.
Analyst Views on TGT
Wall Street analysts forecast TGT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TGT is 98.83 USD with a low forecast of 80.00 USD and a high forecast of 126.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
26 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
14 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 111.280
Low
80.00
Averages
98.83
High
126.00
Current: 111.280
Low
80.00
Averages
98.83
High
126.00
About TGT
Target Corporation is a general merchandise retailer selling products to its guests through its stores and digital channels. The Company offers customers, referred to as guests, everyday essentials and fashionable, differentiated merchandise at discounted prices. The majority of its stores offer a wide assortment of general merchandise and food. Its merchandise categories include apparel and accessories, beauty and household essentials, food and beverage, hardlines, and home furnishings and decor. Most of its stores are larger than 170,000 square feet, offer a variety of general merchandise and a full line of food items comparable to traditional supermarkets. Its digital channels include a wide merchandise and food assortment, including many items found in its stores, along with a complementary assortment sold by the Company and third parties. Its brands include A New Day, Ava & Viv, Cloud Island, Favorite Day, and others. It serves guests at nearly 2,000 stores and at Target.com.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
