S&P 500 Posts Double-Digit Gains for Three Consecutive Years, Driven by AI Stocks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 11 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TGT?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Strong Market Performance: The S&P 500 has achieved annual gains of 24%, 23%, and 16% over the past three years, indicating robust bullish momentum that has attracted significant investor interest in growth stocks, particularly in AI and quantum computing sectors.
- Improved Rate Environment: The Federal Reserve's rate cuts beginning in 2024 have reduced borrowing costs for companies, facilitating easier expansion while also easing consumer financial burdens, which positively impacts consumer-related businesses.
- Valuation Level Warning: The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 39, nearing historical highs, indicating that stock valuations are extremely elevated; historical data suggests that such high valuations often precede market corrections, potentially signaling a decline in 2026.
- Investment Strategy Advice: While the market may experience short-term pullbacks, investors should remain vigilant about valuations, avoid overpaying for stocks, and continue investing in quality companies at the right price to achieve long-term gains.
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Analyst Views on TGT
Wall Street analysts forecast TGT stock price to fall
26 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
14 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 112.690
Low
80.00
Averages
98.83
High
126.00
Current: 112.690
Low
80.00
Averages
98.83
High
126.00
About TGT
Target Corporation is a general merchandise retailer selling products to its guests through its stores and digital channels. The Company offers customers, referred to as guests, everyday essentials and fashionable, differentiated merchandise at discounted prices. The majority of its stores offer a wide assortment of general merchandise and food. Its merchandise categories include apparel and accessories, beauty and household essentials, food and beverage, hardlines, and home furnishings and decor. Most of its stores are larger than 170,000 square feet, offer a variety of general merchandise and a full line of food items comparable to traditional supermarkets. Its digital channels include a wide merchandise and food assortment, including many items found in its stores, along with a complementary assortment sold by the Company and third parties. Its brands include A New Day, Ava & Viv, Cloud Island, Favorite Day, and others. It serves guests at nearly 2,000 stores and at Target.com.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Layoff Announcement: Lowe's plans to cut approximately 600 corporate and support roles, representing less than 1% of its total workforce, to better support store employees and enhance customer service experience.
- Industry Context: This layoff aligns with trends among other major retailers like Target and Home Depot, which have also announced job cuts of 500 and 800 positions respectively, indicating a collective effort in the retail sector to optimize resource allocation and improve customer satisfaction.
- Earnings Expectations: Lowe's is expected to report $20.34 billion in Q4 2024 revenues, reflecting a 10% increase from $18.55 billion in the same period last year, with earnings per share projected at $1.94, slightly above last year's $1.93.
- Market Sentiment: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Lowe's shares shifted from 'bullish' to 'neutral', indicating cautious investor sentiment regarding the company's future performance, despite a 13% increase in stock price over the past year.
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- Potential Refunds: The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on February 20 regarding Trump's tariff regime, with a ruling in favor potentially triggering refunds exceeding $130 billion, significantly reshaping American trade policy.
- Increased Household Tax Burden: U.S. households are projected to face an average tax increase of $1,000 in 2025, rising to $1,300 in 2026, highlighting the direct economic impact of tariffs on ordinary citizens.
- Tariff Revenue Figures: According to CBP data, the U.S. collected over $200 billion in tariffs between January 20 and December 15, 2025, with total customs revenue for 2025 estimated at $264 billion, yielding a net gain of approximately $132 billion after accounting for economic drag.
- Market Reaction: Following Trump's April 2025
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- CPI Expectations: The consumer price index, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, is expected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year rise of 2.5%, which could significantly influence market sentiment and lead investors to reassess their risk appetite.
- Moderna Stock Fluctuations: Moderna's shares have surged 50% over the past three months, closing at $40.11 on Thursday, although this remains significantly lower than the pandemic peak of $497, indicating ongoing volatility in biotech stocks that investors are closely monitoring.
- Wendy's Stock Decline: Wendy's shares fell 7.7% on Thursday, down 55% from their 52-week high, highlighting the persistent pressures facing the fast-food industry, which may impact its future market performance.
- Retail Sector Dynamics: The Amplify Online Retail ETF dropped nearly 4% on Thursday, now down 19.5% from its September high, reflecting weakness in the retail market, especially after experiencing five consecutive weeks of declines, which could negatively affect overall consumer confidence.
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- Tariff Cost Surge: Detroit Axle's import tariff skyrocketed from $25,000 to $725,000, resulting in a $700,000 increase in shipping costs, making it the company's largest expense and forcing price hikes to cover profit losses.
- Legal Challenge: CEO Mike Musheinesh filed a lawsuit questioning the Trump administration's authority to impose taxes via executive order, emphasizing the importance of upholding free market principles and constitutional rights, reflecting strong discontent with government actions.
- Tariff Revenue Data: U.S. Treasury data shows tariff collections reached approximately $29 billion in January 2026, tripling from the previous year, yet showing a decline from the October 2025 peak, indicating ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
- Supreme Court Dynamics: The Supreme Court is poised to rule on cases related to Trump, with legal experts predicting an opinion release shortly after the court reconvenes on February 23, which could significantly impact the operational environment for companies like Detroit Axle.
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- Market Performance Comparison: Walmart's market cap has reached $1 trillion, with a 170% increase over the past five years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 75% return; however, its high valuation with a P/E ratio soaring from 16.5 in 2008 to 45 today indicates a lack of margin of safety in a downturn.
- Dividend Yield Analysis: Walmart's dividend yield stands at a mere 0.7%, well below its 10-year average of 1.8%, while competitor Target offers a 3.9% yield, potentially attracting consumers to lower-priced retail during economic downturns.
- Challenges for McDonald's: McDonald's P/E ratio has risen from 15 in 2008 to 30 today; despite its relatively stable performance in the fast-food sector, changing consumer spending patterns due to
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- Significant Profit Decline: Welspun Living reported a consolidated net profit of 2.1 million rupees ($23,178.81) for the quarter ending December 31, sharply down from 1.21 billion rupees in the same period last year, indicating severe profit pressure due to a slowdown in exports triggered by U.S. tariffs.
- Revenue Drop: The company's operational revenue fell by 9% to 22.62 billion rupees, while its EBITDA margin narrowed by 493 basis points to 7.7%, reflecting significant challenges to profitability amid intense market competition and cost pressures.
- One-Time Charge Impact: The results included a one-time charge of 189.7 million rupees related to India's new labor codes, highlighting the additional financial burden faced by the company in adapting to new regulations, which may affect future investment decisions.
- Improving Market Outlook: Despite current challenges, Welspun Living and other Indian textile exporters anticipate better quarters ahead as U.S. President Trump announced a trade deal with India that reduces tariffs on Indian goods, potentially opening new growth opportunities for the company.
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