SoftBank and the U.S. Government: Implications of Intel's Twin Boosts for Semiconductor ETFs
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 20 2025
0mins
Source: Benzinga
Intel Receives Financial Support: Intel Corp has secured a $2 billion investment from SoftBank and is negotiating a 10% equity stake from the U.S. government, boosting investor confidence initially but leading to a stock decline as uncertainties linger.
Impact on Semiconductor ETFs: Several popular semiconductor ETFs that hold significant Intel shares could benefit if Intel's stock rises due to this support, although the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF has a lower Intel presence.
Risks of Government Ownership: Analysts warn that federal ownership of a major chipmaker like Intel carries risks such as political implications and slower corporate decision-making, which could affect passive ETF investors.
SoftBank's Broader AI Strategy: SoftBank's investment in Intel aligns with its larger strategy in the AI sector, potentially transforming the semiconductor supply chain and complicating considerations for AI-focused ETFs.
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Analyst Views on INTC
Wall Street analysts forecast INTC stock price to fall
29 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
19 Hold
5 Sell
Hold
Current: 117.050
Low
20.00
Averages
39.30
High
52.00
Current: 117.050
Low
20.00
Averages
39.30
High
52.00
About INTC
Intel Corporation is a global designer and manufacturer of semiconductor products. The Company's segments include Intel Products, Intel Foundry, and All Other. Its Intel Products comprise Client Computing Group (CCG) and Data Center and AI (DCAI). CCG delivers platforms and processors that power PCs and edge devices, enabling enhanced performance, connectivity and user experience for consumer and commercial markets with capabilities that also support retail, industrial robotics and AI ecosystems at the edge. DCAI delivers workload-optimized solutions based upon its x86 architecture for data centers, including CPUs, AI accelerators, NICs, IPUs and custom ASICs, enabling performance and scalability for cloud, enterprise, telecommunication and HPC environments. The Intel Foundry segment comprises technology development, manufacturing and foundry services, developing new semiconductor process technologies and advanced packaging technologies. All Other segments include Mobileye and Other.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Performance Improvement: Compared to 18A, the 18A-P delivers a 9% performance increase at the same power level or an 18% reduction in power consumption at the same processing speed, which will enhance product market appeal and meet customer demand for high-performance chips.
- Strong Customer Demand: In the first quarter, demand for Intel's central processors surged, particularly from companies offering AI services, leading to sales of chips that were originally slated for write-off, demonstrating strong market demand for its products.
- Revenue Forecast Upgrade: Intel forecasts second-quarter revenue between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion, exceeding the market estimate of $13.07 billion, reflecting the company's robust performance in the rapidly growing AI market.
See More
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- Stock Fluctuations: Intel's stock rose 4.3% on Monday, dropped on Tuesday, and rebounded on Wednesday, although it remains below the week's opening level, indicating market volatility in the semiconductor sector.
- Impact of SpaceX IPO: SpaceX's successful IPO, achieving a valuation of $2.5 trillion and raising over $80 billion in cash, is expected to lead to significant investments in semiconductors, particularly AI chips, boosting demand for Intel's products.
- AI Chip Demand: According to Lynx Equity, AI companies require substantial AI chips to train and deploy large language models, positioning Intel and Nvidia as key beneficiaries of SpaceX's spending strategy, enhancing their market presence.
- Strategic Partnership: Intel's collaboration with SpaceX to build the Terafab chip factory, which will also service Tesla, positions Intel to capitalize on the surging chip demand, potentially increasing its long-term growth prospects as a result of the SpaceX IPO phenomenon.
See More
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- Portfolio Analysis: During the June Monthly Meeting, Jim Cramer and Jeff Marks provided an in-depth analysis of 35 portfolio stocks, highlighting their preference for Intel due to its significant upside potential in data center CPU growth, particularly in the context of competition with TSMC.
- Tech Giants Restructuring: Cramer noted a reordering of the 'Magnificent Seven,' with newcomers like SpaceX and the yet-to-go-public Anthropic and OpenAI emerging as formidable competitors, indicating intensified market competition, especially in the AI sector.
- Strengths of Alphabet and Apple: Alphabet is positioned advantageously in the AI era with its YouTube and Waymo businesses, while Apple leverages its ecosystem of over 2.5 billion iPhone users to strengthen its AI partnership with Alphabet, showcasing both companies' robust market positions.
- Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy: Despite challenges faced by Meta and Microsoft, Cramer advises maintaining investments in Amazon and Nvidia, believing that the latter's GPU demand will continue to grow, and that Amazon's cloud business remains highly profitable.
See More
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- Strategic Transformation Success: Under the leadership of its new CEO in 2025, Intel has focused on foundry operations and AI, resulting in a 7% year-over-year revenue increase to $13.6 billion in Q1, with adjusted EPS soaring 123% to $0.29, indicating a recovery in growth momentum.
- Major Partnership Agreements: Intel has reached a preliminary agreement with Apple to manufacture some chips for its flagship devices, while also securing an order for 3 million custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) from Alphabet for 2028, further solidifying its position in the AI chip market.
- Analyst Optimism for the Future: Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry maintains a buy rating with a $200 price target for Intel, suggesting a potential 70% upside over the next year, while also expressing a bullish long-term outlook for Intel in the AI inference and applications market.
- Significant Market Potential: Chowdhry projects Intel's EPS will reach $10 by 2030, and if the P/E ratio remains constant, the stock price could rise 848% to $1,100, pushing its market cap to $5.57 trillion, highlighting Intel's vast potential in the AI sector.
See More
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- Strategic Transformation: Under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan since early 2025, Intel has streamlined its operations to focus on foundry services and AI, resulting in a 7% year-over-year revenue increase to $13.6 billion in Q1 2026, indicating signs of recovery.
- Profitability Improvement: Intel's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surged 123% to $0.29 in Q1, although it remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, the company generated over $1 billion in operating cash flow, reflecting an improving financial position.
- Positive Market Outlook: Analyst Trip Chowdhry maintains a buy rating with a $200 price target for Intel, suggesting a potential upside of 70% over the next year, with projected EPS reaching $10 by 2030, which would elevate its market cap to $5 trillion.
- Shifting AI Market Dynamics: Chowdhry emphasizes that the AI market is transitioning from training to inference and applications, predicting that the inference and applications markets will be eight times larger than the training market, presenting significant growth opportunities for Intel, despite rising competition.
See More
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- ARM Price Target Increase: Bernstein raised ARM's price target from $300 to $500, implying a 23% upside, as the firm anticipates significant growth potential in agentic AI, particularly due to its power-efficient architecture driving the adoption of emerging AI workloads.
- AMD Outlook Optimism: AMD's price target was lifted from $525 to $600, suggesting nearly 17% upside, and while the forecast adjustments were modest, the company's strong positioning in the server CPU market is expected to continue supporting its growth trajectory.
- Intel Demand Strength: Bernstein increased Intel's price target from $65 to $100, indicating about a 17% downside risk; however, the company is expected to benefit from stronger server demand as enterprises ramp up investments in computing infrastructure.
- Retail Sentiment Analysis: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for INTC was 'neutral' with normal message volume, which rose about 30% over the past week; in contrast, ARM and AMD faced 'bearish' sentiment, although INTC's stock surged nearly 490% over the past year, reflecting market interest in its future prospects.
See More
