Shay Capital Reduces GEO Group Holdings by 927,016 Shares, Valuation Drops by $22.75 Million
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 29 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Reduction Action: Shay Capital sold 927,016 shares of GEO Group in Q3, resulting in a valuation drop of approximately $22.75 million, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
- Current Holdings: As of September 30, Shay Capital holds 159,799 shares of GEO valued at $3.27 million and 47,500 GEO call options, suggesting some level of ongoing confidence in the investment despite the reduction.
- Financial Performance: GEO Group reported a net income of $173.9 million in the latest quarter, a significant increase from the previous year, but much of this was driven by a $232 million gain from asset sales, highlighting the volatility in its earnings.
- Market Environment: GEO Group's stock price has fallen 42% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500, reflecting the challenges it faces in a politically sensitive and contract-dependent market environment.
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Analyst Views on GEO
Wall Street analysts forecast GEO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEO is 34.00 USD with a low forecast of 30.00 USD and a high forecast of 37.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 16.050
Low
30.00
Averages
34.00
High
37.00
Current: 16.050
Low
30.00
Averages
34.00
High
37.00
About GEO
The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government service provider. The Company specializes in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. The Company’s U.S. Secure Services segment primarily encompasses the United Sates-based secure services business. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment represents technology and services provided to adults for monitoring services for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. Its Reentry Services segment represents evidence-based supervision and treatment programs provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs. Its International Services segment primarily consists of secure services operations in South Africa and Australia.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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