Ross Stores to Release Q4 and FY 2025 Earnings on March 3, 2026
- Earnings Release Schedule: Ross Stores plans to release its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 earnings on March 3, 2026, at approximately 4:00 p.m. Eastern time, which is expected to provide investors with critical financial performance data that will help analyze the company's future growth potential.
- Live Audio Webcast: Investors can listen to a real-time audio webcast of the conference call on the same day at 4:15 p.m. Eastern time, enhancing interaction with investors and increasing transparency and information sharing.
- Recording Playback Available: A recorded version of the call will be accessible until 8:00 p.m. Eastern time on March 10, 2026, through the company website and a telephone recording, ensuring that investors who cannot participate live can still obtain important information, further promoting widespread information dissemination.
- Company Background: Ross Stores is the largest off-price apparel and home fashion chain in the U.S., with fiscal 2024 revenues of $21.1 billion and 1,904 locations, showcasing its strong competitive position and market share in the retail sector.
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- Tax Refund Increase: As of February 13, the average tax refund stands at $2,476, reflecting a 14.2% year-over-year increase, which is expected to positively impact retail stocks, particularly enhancing spending power for low-income households.
- Stimulus Measures Impact: The provisions from the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' could provide an average of about $1,000 in stimulus per household, primarily from increased state and local tax deduction caps and a new deduction for overtime pay, leading to larger tax refunds and reduced tax payments.
- Retail Stock Benefits: Analysts highlight Ross Stores as a buy-rated stock that could benefit from increased tax refunds, given its ability to achieve outsized growth during economic volatility and significant new store growth potential, with shares surging nearly 12% this year.
- Consumer Spending Trends: Over a third of consumers plan to use their tax refunds to pay down debt, while 13% intend to save, which could positively impact stocks like Synchrony Financial, with analysts projecting a 25% upside potential from current levels.
- Tariff Ruling Impact: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against Trump's tariffs, stating that the power to tax lies with Congress, which could positively impact retailers and manufacturers, particularly companies like Nike, Target, and Home Depot.
- Nike's Expected Gains: Nike faced significant challenges from Trump's tariffs last year, with footwear prices rising 17% and apparel prices increasing 14%, and the rollback of these tariffs is expected to alleviate cost pressures and potentially boost stock prices.
- Target's Strategic Shift: Target adjusted its corporate strategy due to tariff uncertainties, resulting in missed revenue estimates in the first quarter; with the tariffs being rolled back, the company is expected to regain profitability, with shares briefly rising to $118.98 post-ruling.
- Home Depot's Market Response: Home Depot considered raising prices due to tariffs, which affected consumer purchasing behavior; the rollback of tariffs is anticipated to improve market performance, although the stock has only seen a modest 2% increase recently.
- Increase in Refunds: The average individual tax refund in the U.S. rose to $2,290 in 2026 from $2,065 in 2025, marking an 11% increase, which will provide additional cash for budget-constrained households, likely driving retail spending.
- Impact of Stimulus Policies: Analysts predict that as the tax season progresses, the increase in refunds will widen, with households expected to receive approximately $1,000 in stimulus, directly influencing consumer spending behavior.
- Changing Spending Patterns: Lower and middle-income households tend to spend their refunds rather than save them, as evidenced by a 35% year-over-year increase in visits to the IRS website by February 6, indicating heightened awareness of refund amounts.
- Retail Market Outlook: Retailers catering to low-income consumers are expected to benefit the most in 2026, although inflation-driven budget constraints mean that spending will likely prioritize essentials before discretionary items.
- Tariff Legality Review: The Supreme Court is poised to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which could significantly impact pricing and margin strategies for consumer giants like Costco and Procter & Gamble.
- Potential EBITDA Uplift: Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that a rollback or limitation of IEEPA-based tariffs could lead to a mid-single-digit uplift in EBITDA for affected retailers, providing notable margin support amid economic pressures.
- Retailer Response Strategies: While awaiting the ruling, retailers such as Costco and Amazon are leveraging strong negotiating power and value-oriented business models to navigate tariff pressures, ensuring they protect consumer value even as costs rise.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Despite tariffs remaining a defining feature of the trade landscape, analysts believe that consumer spending may receive additional support from tax refunds, making the retail and consumer staples sectors attractive investment opportunities.
Walmart's Influence on Retail Sector: Walmart Inc. serves as a key indicator for the retail sector, with its earnings reports significantly impacting market sentiment and shaping consumer spending trends amidst inflation and shifting priorities.
Dollar Tree's Growth: Dollar Tree has shown impressive performance, with a 77% increase in stock value over the past year, focusing on budget-conscious consumers while also expanding into higher-income markets.
Ross Stores' Positive Performance: Ross Stores has experienced a nearly 23% increase in stock value recently, driven by strong earnings reports and solid same-store sales growth, indicating a bullish outlook for the company.
Valuation Concerns in Retail Stocks: There are growing concerns about the overvaluation of retail stocks, including Ross Stores and TJX Companies, as analysts raise their price targets, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining revenue growth in the upcoming quarters.
- Earnings Release Schedule: Ross Stores plans to release its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 earnings on March 3, 2026, at approximately 4:00 p.m. Eastern time, which is expected to provide investors with critical financial performance data that will help analyze the company's future growth potential.
- Live Audio Webcast: Investors can listen to a real-time audio webcast of the conference call on the same day at 4:15 p.m. Eastern time, enhancing interaction with investors and increasing transparency and information sharing.
- Recording Playback Available: A recorded version of the call will be accessible until 8:00 p.m. Eastern time on March 10, 2026, through the company website and a telephone recording, ensuring that investors who cannot participate live can still obtain important information, further promoting widespread information dissemination.
- Company Background: Ross Stores is the largest off-price apparel and home fashion chain in the U.S., with fiscal 2024 revenues of $21.1 billion and 1,904 locations, showcasing its strong competitive position and market share in the retail sector.











