Rising Energy Costs Impact Consumer Spending
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 29 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Increased Household Spending: Since the onset of the Iran War, the average American household has spent an additional $447.19 on energy costs, cumulatively costing nearly $60 billion, indicating heightened financial pressure on consumers that may lead to more cautious spending and impact economic growth.
- Surging Fuel Prices: Gasoline prices have surged over 47% since March, now averaging $4.39 per gallon, while diesel has risen to $5.52 per gallon, resulting in over $20 billion in additional consumer expenses, further straining household budgets.
- Declining Consumer Confidence: Although consumer spending rose by 0.5% from March to April, stagnant income growth and a personal savings rate that fell to 2.6% suggest that consumers are increasingly relying on credit and savings to maintain spending levels amid inflationary pressures.
- Pessimistic Future Outlook: Goldman Sachs anticipates that rising energy prices will continue to erode consumer purchasing power, particularly affecting lower-income households, which may lead to a further contraction in spending patterns and increase the risk of economic slowdown.
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Analyst Views on COST
Wall Street analysts forecast COST stock price to rise
24 Analyst Rating
19 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 965.590
Low
769.00
Averages
1061
High
1205
Current: 965.590
Low
769.00
Averages
1061
High
1205
About COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation (Costco) operates membership warehouses and e-commerce sites that offer a selection of nationally branded and private-label products in a wide range of categories. The Company buys the majority of its merchandise directly from suppliers and route it to cross-docking consolidation points (depots) or directly to its warehouses. It operates 891 warehouses, including 614 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 108 in Canada, 40 in Mexico, 35 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 19 in Korea, 15 in Australia, 14 in Taiwan, seven in China, five in Spain, two in France, and one each in Iceland, New Zealand and Sweden. It also operates e-commerce sites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia. The Company provides wide selection of merchandise, plus the convenience of specialty departments and exclusive member services.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Impact of SNAP Policies: As of May, the USDA has approved food restriction waivers in 23 states affecting about one-third of SNAP participants, with estimates suggesting a potential $830 million drop in food and beverage sales this year, compelling companies to reassess their product lines to adapt to shifting consumer spending.
- Consumer Spending Pressure: Kroger CEO Greg Foran highlighted that customers are under financial pressure due to reduced SNAP benefits and rising gas prices, leading to more cautious shopping behavior, indicating that changes in market demand could significantly influence food companies' sales strategies.
- Legislative Push for Healthy Eating: Iowa has become the first state to codify elements of the
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- Sales Decline Forecast: According to Numerator, SNAP purchase restrictions have been approved in 23 states, potentially reducing food and beverage sales by up to $830 million, affecting about one-third of recipients, indicating a direct impact of policy on the food industry.
- Consumer Behavior Shift: Kroger CEO Greg Foran noted that customers are under pressure due to reduced SNAP benefits and rising gas prices, shopping more cautiously, which suggests significant changes in consumer spending patterns that may affect retailers' sales strategies.
- Accelerated Product Reformulation: As the MAHA movement gains traction, food manufacturers are accelerating product reformulations, with many companies pledging to phase out artificial colors by 2027, reflecting the industry's response and adaptation to health trends.
- Increased Market Competition: Major food companies like Hershey and Kraft Heinz are closely monitoring shopper behavior to assess the impact of new policies on their product lines, indicating that businesses need to quickly adjust to maintain market share amid policy changes.
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- Walmart's E-commerce Surge: Walmart became the first traditional retailer to surpass a $1 trillion market valuation in 2026, with its e-commerce business now accounting for 18% of total revenue, growing 24% to $150 billion, highlighting its technology-driven transformation in retail.
- Member Spending Trust: Costco saw a 7.3% increase in average transaction size globally during economic downturns, with membership fee income rising 13.6%, reflecting consumer trust in its value proposition, now boasting 82.1 million paid household members, enhancing brand loyalty.
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- Walmart's Technological Breakthrough: Walmart became the first traditional retailer to surpass a $1 trillion market valuation in February 2026, with its e-commerce business representing 18% of total revenue and growing 24% to $150 billion, showcasing successful technology investments that enhance market competitiveness.
- Same-Day Delivery Service: Walmart's same-day delivery now reaches 95% of U.S. households, a logistics achievement that sets it apart in the industry, improving consumer shopping experiences by ensuring that customers can find what they need at 11 p.m. and receive it the next morning.
- Costco's Membership Growth: Costco saw a 7.3% increase in average transaction size globally in Q3, with membership fee income rising 13.6%, now counting 82.1 million paid household members, demonstrating its ability to attract consumers even during economic downturns and enhancing brand loyalty.
- Fuel Price Appeal: Costco's fuel prices have become a significant draw amid rising gasoline costs, directly passing tariff savings to consumers, further solidifying brand trust and ensuring long-term customer loyalty.
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- High Valuation: Costco's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 49, significantly higher than competitors like Walmart and Target, and it hasn't dipped below 25 since 2017, indicating substantial valuation risk for investors.
- Revenue Growth: For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, Costco reported total revenue of $207 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, with net income reaching $6.2 billion, up 13%, yet this growth does not justify its high P/E ratio.
- PEG Ratio: Costco's PEG ratio is twice that of Walmart's, and while revenue and earnings growth have slightly accelerated, this does not validate its elevated valuation, raising further concerns among investors.
- Flat Market Performance: Since the beginning of 2025, Costco's stock has remained flat, with a pullback since mid-May, prompting investors to carefully consider the risks of entering at such a high valuation.
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- Growth Performance: Costco reported total revenue of $207 billion in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase, with net income reaching $6.2 billion, a 13% rise, yet this growth does not justify its high P/E ratio of 49.
- Valuation Comparison: Costco's P/E ratio significantly exceeds that of other retailers, such as Walmart and Target, which stand at 15 and 20 times earnings respectively, while Amazon's P/E is 29, indicating that Costco's stock is overvalued.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite Costco's strong customer base and appealing product mix, its stock price has remained flat since early 2025 and has pulled back since mid-May, leading investors to feel uneasy about the current high valuation.
- Market Outlook: Analysts recommend that investors keep Costco on their watch list and consider buying only if the stock price falls below 35 times earnings, to mitigate investment risks associated with its current premium valuation.
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