Tesla's Sales Decline: Tesla's sales in China fell to a three-year low in October, with only 26,006 vehicles sold, resulting in a market share drop from 8.7% to 3.2% due to fierce competition and a price war.
Emerging Competitors: Local rivals like Xiaomi and Leapmotor are gaining traction, with Xiaomi's new SUV and sedan achieving record sales and Leapmotor offering a more affordable SUV, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards budget-friendly options.
Industry Partnerships: Traditional automakers and tech companies are forming partnerships, such as Huawei collaborating with various brands, highlighting a trend towards collaboration in the EV market.
Analyst Ratings and Future Outlook: Analysts maintain a Hold consensus on TSLA stock, with an average price target suggesting a potential downside, while Elon Musk anticipates Chinese approval for Full Self-Driving by early 2026, emphasizing the need for Tesla to update its models to remain competitive.
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TSLA is 401.93 USD with a low forecast of 25.28 USD and a high forecast of 600.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
30 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TSLA is 401.93 USD with a low forecast of 25.28 USD and a high forecast of 600.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 449.360
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 449.360
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Barclays
Dan Levy
Equal Weight
maintain
$350 -> $360
2026-01-23
New
Reason
Barclays
Dan Levy
Price Target
$350 -> $360
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
New
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays analyst Dan Levy raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $360 from $350 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the autos and mobility group as part of a Q4 preview. Barclays continue to prefer the car markers, saying they are benefiting from "healthy" production rates and reduced electric vehicle losses.
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
maintain
$425
2026-01-22
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$425
2026-01-22
New
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Lemonade's (LMND) launch of autonomous car insurance tied to Tesla's (TSLA) full self-driving system marks a meaningful validation of autonomous driving by the insurance industry, with pricing that reflects lower risk for FSD-driven miles and discounts of up to 50%, Morgan Stanley tells investors in a research note. This external endorsement strengthens Tesla's value proposition, could accelerate FSD adoption, and supports an Equal Weight rating with a $425 price target on the shares, the firm says.
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GLJ Research
Gordon Johnson
Sell
maintain
2026-01-07
Reason
GLJ Research
Gordon Johnson
Price Target
2026-01-07
maintain
Sell
Reason
GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $25.28 from $19.05 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares as the firm is adjusting Q4 estimates for "reality rather than narrative." With 418,000 in Q4 deliveries, a Q4 mix-shift toward heavily discounted Model Ys outside of China and Q4 being the first quarter in which U.S. automakers are no longer federally mandated to buy ZEV credits from Telsa, the "earnings math deteriorates quickly," says the analyst, who expects the company's decline in global deliveries to accelerate to 15.0% year-over-year in 2026.
Truist
William Stein
Hold
downgrade
$444 -> $439
2026-01-02
Reason
Truist
William Stein
Price Target
$444 -> $439
2026-01-02
downgrade
Hold
Reason
Truist analyst William Stein lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $439 from $444 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after the company announced it delivered 418k units in Q4 2025, below consensus and the firm's estimate. Truist interprets the stock's bounce as "better than feared." Energy storage deployments beat consensus. The firm asserts investors should be more focused on AI projects, especially FSD. Truist views AI developments as far more important than auto deliveries for Tesla's long-term cash generation and stock performance.
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
